Isn't it a distribution problem? World hunger has almost disappeared however. (The issue is hungrier nations have more kids, so progress is a bit hidden).

In a long AGI world, isn’t it very plausible that it gets developed in China and thus basically all efforts to shape its creation is pointless since Lesswrong and associated efforts don’t have much influence in China?

I've always wondered, why didn't superpowers apply MAIM to nuclear capabilities in the past?

> Speculative but increasingly plausible, confidentiality-preserving AI verifiers

Such as?

I mean, I don't want to give Big Labs any ideas, but I suspect the reasoning above implies that the o1/deepseek -style RL procedures might work a lot better if they can think internally for a long time

I expect gpt 5 to implement this. Based on recent research and how they phrase it. 

I thought OpenAI’s deep research uses the full o3? 

Why are current LLMs, reasoning models and whatever else still horribly unreliable? I can ask the current best models (o3, Claude, deep research, etc) to do a task to generate lots of code for me using a specific pattern or make a chart with company valuations and it’ll get them mostly wrong.

Is this just a result of labs hill climbing a bunch of impressive sounding benchmarks? I think this should delay timelines a bit. Unless there’s progress on reliability I just can’t perceive. 

SWEs won't necessarily be fired even after becoming useless

I'm actually surprised at how eager/willing big tech is to fire SWEs once they're sure they won't be economically valuable. I think a lot of priors for them being stable come from the ZIRP era. Now, these companies have quite frequent layoffs, silent layoffs, and performance firings. Companies becoming leaner will be a good litmus test for a lot of these claims.

https://x.com/arankomatsuzaki/status/1889522974467957033?s=46&t=9y15MIfip4QAOskUiIhvgA

O3 gets IOI Gold. Either we are in a fast takeoff or the "gold" standard benchmarks are a lot less useful than imagined.

I feel like a lot of manifold is virtue signaling .

Just curious. How do you square the rise in AI stocks taking so long? Many people here thought it was obvious since 2022 and made a ton of money.