This also misses the time value of money; fixed heuristics don't capture that the effect is more pronounced the further out the settlement date is (already prediction markets with 2030s settlement dates)

Another example: CPAP compliance/adherence rates

Further, the SAT used to be much harder. In 1991, only nine students scored a 1600, whereas people estimate that over 500 students achieve a perfect score today.

Those numbers don't support that claim because of:

1. More intelligent students (Flynn effect)
2. >50% more HS students
3. Higher standardized test participation among HS students (test takers ~doubled with only >50% more students)

doesn't track the time value of money in the global economy

(Ignoring liquidity rewards) Therefore, other platform users have access to similar lucrative return rates (Polymarket and Manifold fund liquidity without meaningful revenue) as those fireselling, so best returns may be ignoring obvious longterm markets altogether:
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3#jdUj58EdDXBbF8ZNyXaT
 

reflect true probabilities, especially for low-probability events

Polymarket could consider at least being explicit about that limitation and disallow wagers beyond 99% like Kalshi and Manifold currently do:

https://www.npr.org/2024/11/29/nx-s1-5210800/6-million-banana-art-piece-eaten

More annual links:
https://hntoplinks.com/year
Magnum forums like this one:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://lesswrong.com/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://progressforum.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://forum.fastcommunity.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
and subreddits:
https://reddit.com/r/*/top/?t=year

https://kyhealthnews.net/2022/02/14/a-healthier-diet-could-add-years-to-your-life-study-says-more-than-a-decade-in-your-20s-and-eight-or-nine-years-even-at-age-60