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All of Pat Myron's Comments + Replies

Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?
Pat Myron20

This also misses the time value of money; fixed heuristics don't capture that the effect is more pronounced the further out the settlement date is (already prediction markets with 2030s settlement dates)

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3Mikhail Samin
No one believes the Jesus market will resolve to Yes. See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LBC2TnHK8cZAimdWF/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year for an explanation of what people are betting on
Intention to Treat
Pat Myron10

Another example: CPAP compliance/adherence rates

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American College Admissions Doesn't Need to Be So Competitive
Pat Myron*2-4

Further, the SAT used to be much harder. In 1991, only nine students scored a 1600, whereas people estimate that over 500 students achieve a perfect score today.

Those numbers don't support that claim because of:

  1. More intelligent students (Flynn effect)
  2. >50% more HS students
  3. Higher standardized test participation among HS students (test takers ~doubled with only >50% more students)
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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?
Pat Myron*10

doesn't track the time value of money in the global economy

(Ignoring liquidity rewards) Therefore, other platform users have access to similar lucrative return rates (Polymarket and Manifold fund liquidity without meaningful revenue) as those fireselling, so best returns may be ignoring obvious longterm markets altogether:
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3#jdUj58EdDXBbF8ZNyXaT
 

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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?
Pat Myron10

reflect true probabilities, especially for low-probability events

Polymarket could consider at least being explicit about that limitation and disallow wagers beyond 99% like Kalshi and Manifold currently do:

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2aggliu
This is probably well-known at this point, but the $6 million item is not the duct-taped banana itself, but the right to display the duct-taped banana. That may not make it any more or less sensible, though.
Shortform
Pat Myron10

impressive LLM benchmark/test results seemingly overfit some datasets:
https://x.com/cHHillee/status/1635790330854526981

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Eric Neyman's Shortform
Pat Myron10

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect seems like a decent entry point to rabbit hole similar phenomenon

Reply1
ChristianKl's Shortform
Pat Myron10

shut your phone off

Leave phones elsewhere, remove batteries, or faraday cage them if you're concerned about state-level actors:

https://slate.com/technology/2013/07/nsa-can-reportedly-track-cellphones-even-when-they-re-turned-off.html

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4jmh
Thanks.  I would note that to my eye the charts do seem to imply an upward trend from the 1995 observations and while clearly declining from the 2010 highs still exceeds the numbers reported in 1995 and 1996 low points. So I'm not completely sure I buy the CNBC headline claim of decline in terms of trend. At least not is long term sense. https://www.icc-ccs.org/ reports is kind of interesting as they start 2023 reporting the lowest level of Q1 priracy in 30 years but then their reports increasingly seem to show more and more concern about such activities, which were actually increasing over the prior year contra the Q1 observations.
3jefftk
Unfortunately I want private previews: when I send a draft blog post to someone for review that may contain things that shouldn't be public.
Pat Myron's Shortform
Pat Myron10

+1 to be able to check notifications, messages, and specific posts here without seeing newsfeeds:
https://github.com/jordwest/news-feed-eradicator/issues/253
https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/issues/6640

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riceissa's Shortform
Pat Myron10

wackier stuff

mind elaborating? 

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2riceissa
Some stuff I've encountered that I mostly haven't looked much into and haven't really tried but seem potentially useful to me: heart rate variability biofeedback training, getting sunlight at specific times of day, photobiomodulation (e.g. Vielight), red light therapy, neurofeedback, transcranial magnetic stimulation, specific supplement regimes (example), green powders like Athletic Greens, certain kinds of meditation.