On the opposite end, when I was young I learned about the term "Stock market crash", referring to 1929, and I thought literally a car crashed into the physical location where stocks were traded, leading to mass confusion and kickstarting the Great Depression. Though if that actually happened back then, it would have led to a temporary crash in the market.
Obviously correct. The nature of any entity with significantly more power than you is that it can do anything it wants, and it incentivized to do nothing in your favor the moment your existence requires resources that would benefit it more if it were to use them directly. This is the essence of most of Eliezer's writings on superintelligence.
In all likelihood, ASI considers power (agentic control of the universe) an optimal goal and finds no use for humanity. Any wealth of insight it could glean from humans it could get from its own thinking, or seeding various worlds with genetically modified humans optimized for behaving in a way that produces insight into the nature of the universe via observing it.
Here are some things that would perhaps reasonably prevent ASI from choosing the "psychopathic pure optimizer" route of action as it eclipses' humanity's grasp
I'm not preparing for it because it's not gonna happen
I agree. OpenAI claimed in the gpt-4o blog post that it is an entirely new model trained from the ground up. GPT-N refers to capabilities, not a specific architecture or set of weights. I imagine GPT-5 will likely be an upscaled version of 4o, as the success of 4o has revealed that multi-modal training can reach similar capabilities at what is likely a smaller number of weights (judging by the fact that gpt-4o is cheaper and faster than 4 and 4T)
What makes you believe this?
Given this argument hinges on China's higher IQ, why couldn't the same be said about Japan, which according to most figures has an average IQ at or above China, which would indicate the same higher proportion of +4SD individuals in the population. If it's 1 in 4k, there would be 30k of those in Japan, 3x as much as the US. Japan also has a more stable democracy, better overall quality of life and per capita GDP than China. If outsized technological success in any domain was solely about IQ, then one would have expected Japan to be the center of world tech and the likely creators of AGI, not the USA, but that's likely not the case.
The wording of the question is ambiguous. It asks for your determination on the likelihood it was heads when you were "first awakened", but by your perception any wakening is you being first awakened. If it is really asking about your determination given you have the information that the question is being asked on your first wakening regardless of your perception, then it's 1/2. If you know the question will be asked on your first or second wakening (though the second one will in the moment feel like the first), then it's 1/3.
I feel a satisfaction hearing that some figure on social media is embroiled in a controversy and realizing that I had muted them a long time ago. The common themes that turn me off to people in general is