All of RatsWrongAboutUAP's Comments + Replies

Eth: 0x1E9f00B7FF9699869f6E81277909115c11399296

Btc: bc1qegk25dy4kt2hgx0s6qla8gddv09cga874dr372

 

So far I have paid out $6164 and I stand to make $515,000 if I win. I appreciate your incentive offer.

I'm Currently on Vacation, I will follow up on this in a week

2grist
Your post led me down an interesting path. Thank you. I would love to know your thoughts of the congressional hearing.

Glad to have made this bet with you!

An Update: I have now paid out $4864 to 9 different bettors. From this point on I will only be accepting offers with at least 150:1 odds. I would love to make more bets, so feel free to reach out with offers at any point. Thanks to everyone who has already finalized bets with me. 

7brunoparga
Would you mind sharing how much you will win if the bet goes your way and everyone pays out? Also, I would like to see more actions like yours, so I'd like to put money into that. I want to unconditionally give you $50; if you win the bet you may (but would be under no obligation to) return this money to me. All I'd need now is an ETH wallet to send money to. I would like this to be construed as a meta-level incentive for people to have this attitude of "put up or shut up" while offering immediate payouts; not as taking a stance on the object-level question.
  1. I do not have any non-public information about ufos/uap.
  2. Sure

Please verify reception of funds and confirm our bet https://blockstream.info/tx/ab7173abec208a6eda17bdf1b75668bc5e6efe46356f40109125a42962bfb9e2

2WilliamKiely
Received $400 worth of bitcoin. I confirm the bet.

Please confirm reception of funds https://etherscan.io/tx/0x0104a0005a62af25a86d9d3573c02e0715860309b3a66e1370efec7533b41ffa

8Jonas V
Confirm.

Awesome! DM me and we can figure out payment options

5Ted Sanders
$500 payment received. I am committed to paying $100k if aliens/supernatural/non-prosaic explanations are, in the next 5 years, considered, in aggregate, to be 50%+ likely in explaining at least one UFO.

Sounds good to me! I will send $200 worth of bitcoin to this address sometime today

BTC transaction cleared today for equivalent of $200 usd. Bet is agreed to as above.

Because in absolute terms I would only have to put up $25. At the lower end I'm willing to be more flexible. I also just want to bet with more people. I've received a lot of offers in comments, but only 3 people have actually reached out and finalized bets with me.

Curious what your thoughts are now? Still mulling it over? I would like to make this bet, so please let me know if there are any further concerns you have.

2frontier64
I think your offer to bet did me some good. I don't think my belief in non-prosaic UFOs is actually much lower than .5%. Either that or seeing you accept worse deals makes me want to negotiate. If we lower my exposure to $20,000 and the odds to 1:100 I'll accept the bet with all conditions previously stated in our comment chain and the post. I will also PM you my personal info if you accept. My btc address: bc1q32lqjmncj07wm2nyppzzuctv4y8q53h4khn8n8

Acceptable offer, reach out with payment details

2ChristianKl
Why would you accept an offer from an account that has three comments on LessWrong and thus no reputation to lose?

Given your lack of history I would want much better odds and lower payment from my side, for you I would probably max at $500 and would want 200:1

6Ted Sanders
Fair. I accept. 200:1 of my $100k against your $500. How are you setting these up? I'm happy to pay $100k if my understanding of the universe (no aliens, no supernatural, etc.) is shaken. Also happy to pay up after 5 years if evidence turns up later about activities before or in this 5-year period. (Also, regarding history, I have a second Less Wrong account with 11 years of history: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/tedsanders)
2philh
Confirming that this is on, and I've received $100 worth of BTC from OP.

The explanation still has to ultimately relate back to explaining uap.

Sure, lets bet. Reach out with means to receive payment

1Andrew McKnight
I'll repeat this bet, same odds same conditions same payout, if you're still interested. My $10k to your $200 in advance.
Algon120

I bet RatsWrongAboutUAP $200 at 50:1 odds against us both assigning >50% odds for a non-prosaic explanation for UFOs within 5 years from today. He agreed, and I have received the money. We'll try to adjudicate the bet ourselves, or failing that, ask the LW community, or whomever is suitable, to adjudicate matters. 

Anyone who is confident no ufos are truly anomalous, please feel free to extend me odds for a bet here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

I have already paid out to two betters so far, and would like some more

That's a reasonable concern. My concern is that without some principal to avoid it, that would just mean that everyone waits out the full 5 years even if its clear I'm the winner. 

I wouldn't mind giving a window of a month for things to settle before there's a duty to settle. I would still demand that if anyones credence ever goes >50% that they still have to register that publicly (or at least to me) 

1Groudon466
That sounds reasonable enough.

Correct, accepted at payment time. If you need more time to think it over, no problem.

 

Interesting edge case. I would ask that if you at any point became >50% within the time horizon, that you would proactively reach out in short order. 

1Groudon466
Respectfully, that sounds like the "catch" here, though I doubt you have any actual ill intentions. If it applies at any point within the period, then it could apply for something as simple as a brief miscommunication from the White House that gets resolved within 24 hours. Some overworked and underpaid headline-writer makes a critical typo, aliens suddenly seem confirmed to LWers, and then... it's game? I would strongly recommend that you amend that edge case interpretation to only consider the state of things at the end of the period. While there could still technically be a spike of credulity around that time, it would be quite unlikely, whereas if UFOs have actually properly been established at some point in that time period, they will remain so throughout.

Yes! If you have any concerns over terms/resolution please let me know. Otherwise reach out with means to receive payment

2Thomas Sepulchre
I confirm that I have received today $400. final resolution day: 11:59pm, June 16th, 2028

I like the odds and appreciate the offer, but these terms do not interest me.

I have recieved $1000. The bet is on!

This is more than acceptable for me. Please reach out for a way for me to pay you.

simon143

This is to publicly confirm that I have received approximately $2000 USD equivalent.

Unless you dispute what timing is appropriate for the knowledge cutoff, I will consider the knowledge cutoff for the paradigm-shattering UAP-related revelations for me to send you $100k USD to be 11:59pm, June 14, 2028 UTC time.

Mere government hoax/psyop with no accompanying reality to non-prosaic uap would NOT resolve in my favor, no issue from me on that.

In a world where a sizeable fraction of LW becomes convinced I might win the bet, I would expect that I then wouldn't have to wait very long before it then became conclusive, so I wouldn't mind just waiting that out. If in that case, we then hit time horizon constraints before it was definitive to you, then depending on the specifics I definitely would not rule out appealing to the community (or specific 'trusted' individuals l... (read more)

1simon
Regarding if there is evidence convincing to you, but not to me, after the five years:  If the LW community overwhelmingly agrees (say >85%) that my refusal to accept the evidence available as of 5 years from the time of the bet as overcoming the prior against ontologically surprising things being responsible for some "UAPs" was unreasonable, then I would agree to pay. I wouldn't accept 50% of LessWrong having that view as enough, and don't trust the judgement of particular individuals even if I trust them to be intelligent and honest. Evidence that arises or becomes publicly available after the 5 years doesn't count, even if the bet was still under dispute at the time of the new evidence. I will also operate in good faith, but don't promise not to be a stickler to the terms (see for example Bryan Caplan on his successful bet that no member nation of the EU with a population over 10 million would leave before 2020 (which he won despite the UK voting to leave in 2016) (Bet 10 at https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0) If you agree to these, in addition to what was discussed above, then I would be willing to offer $100k USD max bet for $2k USD now.
-21green_leaf

Double the odds and I will accept immediately. Otherwise I might accept in the next few days depending on if I get more offers or not. I have reached out to others now and I expect when its confirmed that I really am giving out money, that more offers will come in.

Correct, I'm not trying to collect on something like that. I would in the case of a simulation only if it was also the case that the ufos were something unique and specific (ie, actual glitches, or something expressly put in by the programmers) as opposed to being trivially true in the way that you mention.

Correct, you do not have to commit the money to any third party, you merely have to affirm that you will pay out in the event that I win.

At the moment 30:1 is less than I would prefer, if in the next few days I do not get enough new offers then I might take you up on this. 50:1 is currently the lowest I have accepted.

I'm afraid you are going to lose this bet. So long as people come can up with a bitcoin/eth address or a paypal account, there will be no issues.

3Dagon
Don't be afraid!  This is a bet I hope to lose (well, really, a prediction I hope is false - transaction costs keep me from betting).  I wish you the best, and I really do appreciate people specifying their beliefs with precision that allows betting.   Given the site and general level of goodwill here, my estimate is maybe as high as 15% that this will result in a significant deposit in the next 2 weeks, confirmed by at least one long-term poster on the site.  That's an order of magnitude higher than I'd give anywhere else, and I'm rooting for you!

If/when it comes out that ufos are legitimately weird, I would be very surprised to see anything other than utter bewilderment from most of LW, I don't expect clear resolution in my favor to be an issue.

LW's with a reputation are a far cry from random internet strangers. I made the bet terms as such to be as frictionless and minimum downside for my counterparties as possible to try and eliminate as many concerns as possible, I do want to make bets afterall.

If I get stiffed I'd be pretty surprised, but I take that risk knowingly.

7Charlie Steiner
I think if your P(weird) is 3%, it might be hard for you to in-expectation make money even from someone whose P(weird) is 0.00001%. You should definitely worry about being stiffed to some extent, and both sides should expect small probabilities of other sorts of costly drama. This limits what bets people should actually agree on.

Let us move forward!

I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same. If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.

2Charlie Steiner
I commit to paying up if I agree there's a >0.4 probability something non-mundane happened in a UFO/UAP case, or if there's overwhelming consensus to that effect and my probability is >0.1. Though I guess I should warn you in advance that I expect that this would require either big obvious evidence or repeatable evidence. An example of big would be an alien ship hovering at the fifty yard line during superbowl, repeatable would be some way of doing science to the aliens. Government alien-existence announcements lacking any such evidence might lead to me paying on the second clause rather than the first. I'll message you details.

This is the best offer so far! I would love to enter into this bet with you.

I would be perfectly happy with either of those methods of resolution in the event there's a disagreement. In that event I would be happy for you to more or less entirely dictate the specifics of that process. I commit to operating in good faith with you, and I obviously take as a given that you will do the same.

If you have any other concerns please let me know. Otherwise please provide (either publicly or privately) a means for me to pay you. We can then both confirm here that we have begun our bet.

4frontier64
This will be an accepted on payment kind of deal? I need probably another few days to mull it over. I've never committed to a bet where I could potentially have to spend $50,000 in the future. I would feel really dumb if I jumped into it Clarification, if we agree that the likelihood of non-prosaic UFOs is >50% 4 years into the future but then at the time horizon the likelihood is back down way <50% do I pay or no? This is really unlikely, but what came to top of mind. Also, if I do have to pay in that scenario, how immediate do you want the payment?

I said in a post to lsusr yesterday (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oY9HNicqGGihymnzk/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-craft-of-non?commentId=od73EXuSL6uKLFfeD) that I would update the post today to address his concerns, but honestly im feeling very lazy and mostly disagree that its unclear what I'm trying to do. 

I will be picking some people and moving forward with the bets today. I will ensure with my counterparties that any individual concerns they have are addressed.

 

I am still open to betting with more people (and would love to do so!). 

I will update the post tomorrow and add more detail to address the other concerns

Enticing offer. Barring better odds and max payout offer that would eat up my budget, I would like I go forward with this. I will wait to see what offers come in first.

8RHollerith
You've quadrupled my P(aliens or demons or such have been flying around Earth's atmosphere). Thanks for this post (and this comment in particular).

I know I have no post history, and thus these are just words, but I claim to be a reasonable, rational person who (tries) to operates exclusively in good faith. I've been a lurker of LW and LW adjacent people for a few years now. I learned about lesswrong because I stumbled across eilizers work on decision theories and then subsequently got agi-safety-pilled. I considered myself a "standard materialist atheist" my entire adult life and most of my childhood.

Most of your concerns seemed to ignore that the explanations have to ultimately trace back to explain... (read more)

5the gears to ascension
the resolution criteria of a bet should not rely heavily on reasonableness of participants unless the bet is very small such that both parties can tolerate misresolution. the manifold folks can tell you all about how it goes when you get this wrong, there are many seemingly obvious questions that have been derailed by technicalities, and it was not the author's reasonableness most centrally at play. (edit: in fact, the author's reasonableness is why the author had to say "wait... uh... according to those criteria this pretty clearly went x way, which I didn't expect and so the resolution criteria were wrong")

I have created a post for this bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

I have created a post for my bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

3lsusr
There's a lot of stuff that scares me about that post. Resolution Criteria * Suppose your counterparty bets on 200:1 odds. Suppose the odds of a LW poll getting trolling results are >0.5%. Then your counterparty loses all of their alpha on that alone (because an incorrect result costs them 200× more than it costs you). * "I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community to adjudicate resolution if I believe I am being stiffed." is too vague. If you don't specify exactly how you plan for the LW community to adjudicate resolution, then that's just asking for trouble. Imagine if you said "I reserve the right to the /r/cute community to adjudicate resolution of <such-and-such bet>. (Especially considering that the community is boycotting Reddit right now.) * You didn't mention anything about "nontrivial post history". What happens if you win the bet $100k but your counterparty refuses to pay you? Do you go to court? What if they live in Nigeria? Weird Explanations Some of these seem poorly phrased, from the perspective of a lawyer. * I think "astral projection" might be a legitimate altered state of consciousness, distinct from lucid dreaming. * Personally, I would not consider the discovery of a Kardashev type II or III civilization to be an ontological shock. A shock, certainly, but not an ontological one. * What is "magic"? The term is used by people like Daniel Ingram to describe stuff that seems…well…woo, but not quite insane. Also, anything which happens is a priori not paranormal. * It's unclear whether the discovery of non-human homonids in the Amazon would resolve for or against you. Same goes for the discovery of a random dinosaur (non-bird) species that just happened to survive 70 million years. Neanderthal genes live among us. * There's no central dogma for "standard atheist materialists". For example, there was a time when mainstream scientists didn't believe in lucid dreaming. I think enlightenment is in a similar state right now. It's not

I have created a post for this bet https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

I have created a post here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up

Fair enough. What kinds of changes would you suggest for the list? My goal is to find at least one person on LW to make a bet with me, so I welcome feedback

2lsusr
The financial terms aren't good enough to entice me. Besides that… Pretty much all of your weird explanations are too vague. In particular "[s]ome other explanation that's of this level of 'very weird'" is voids the whole thing. It'd be fine for a blog post, but not as a prediction resolution criteria. "I reserve the right to appeal to the LW community. [I will not abuse this right]" is too vague too. The LW community is not a monolithic entity. I think you need to specify exactly how you plan to appeal to the LW community.

I assume you mean the central example, some indisputably organic entities arriving from another star system on something indisputably like a "spacecraft"

Extraterrestrial in origin, biological or otherwise (their autonomous probes, for instance).

Hmm, I don't even know how to identify something like that.

Example of what resolution in my favor might look like: In 5 years time we are looking back and saying "Damn, I cant believe some ufos were actually demons this whole time. Wild"

In general, what I'm trying to bet on is the world and rationalist community exp... (read more)

2Mitchell_Porter
What is the largest amount that you're willing to bet?
2lc
+++
4Shmi
Oh yeah, that would be fantastic! And it might happen, just probably not in the area of physics foundations. I looked over my posts and comments over the last 12 years or so, and there hasn't been anything remotely close to what you are describing, as far as I can tell.

For instance, if some form of undiscovered bat or sea creature is actually good at flying and that explains the images, does that count as "very weird"? That is, it's not an animal that can design technologies, but it is the cause of a bunch of the UFO reportings.

If a skeptic/debunker would feel smug and vindicated about any given explanation, then that explanation would NOT resolve in my favor. Weird animal (As mentioned, barring that they aren't secretly on par with humans), is prosaic and would NOT resolve in my favor.
 

Also "psychic phenomenon" see

... (read more)
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