"Likely" refers to probability, and yet the point of this essay is to explain probability. Therefore, the use of "likely" is, in a sense, circular reasoning. After all, what does "likely" mean? It's not explained here. It suggests an outcome frequency of sorts and so this statement and others like it is an attempt to arrive at an outcome frequency (equivalent to the proportions of red and blue water that make it down through) by referring to another outcome frequency; thus the circularity.
Better to stick with the proportions themselves by explaining that, however much red water makes it down through, there will be three times as much of... (read more)
"Likely" refers to probability, and yet the point of this essay is to explain probability. Therefore, the use of "likely" is, in a sense, circular reasoning. After all, what does "likely" mean? It's not explained here. It suggests an outcome frequency of sorts and so this statement and others like it is an attempt to arrive at an outcome frequency (equivalent to the proportions of red and blue water that make it down through) by referring to another outcome frequency; thus the circularity.
Better to stick with the proportions themselves by explaining that, however much red water makes it down through, there will be three times as much of... (read more)