With respect, I think that's wrong.
If all parents agree that school A is better than B, but parent 1 cares much more about A>B than parent 2 does, then the sum-of-utilities is different (so, not "zero sum") depending on whether [ 1→A; 2→B ] or [ 1→B; 2→A ]. Every change in outcomes leads to someone losing (compared to the counterfactual), but the payoffs aren't zero-sum.
That example is kind of useless, but if you have three parents and three schools (and even if parents agree on order), but each of the parents care about A>B and B>C in different r...
While the zero-sum nature is unavoidable
I believe this is false as stated:
While 'zero-sum' is correct in a loose colloquial sense that at least one person has to lose something for any group to improve, I think it's actually important to realize that there are mechanisms that improve overall welfare -- and so the system administrators should be trying to find them!
You cite the Gale-Shapley papers, but are you aware that the school-choice mechanism you described is called the "Boston mechanism" in the field of mechanism design? Because, well, it was also the system in place at Boston Public Schools (until the early 2000s, when they changed to a Gale-Shapley algorithm).
Pathak and Sonmez (2008) is the usual citation on the topic, and they find (as you suggest) that the change makes the most "sophisticated" parent-players worse off, but the least-sophisticated better off.
Think of it as your own little lesson in irreversible consequences of appealing actions, maybe? Rather than a fully-realistic element.
My guess would be that a commitment to retaliation -- including one that you don't manage to announce to General Logoff before they log off -- is positive, not negative, to one's reputation around these here parts. Sophisticated decision theories have been popular for fifteen years, and "I retaliate to defection even when it's costly to me and negative-net-welfare" reads to me as sophisticated, not shameworthy.
If a general of mine reads a blind commitment by General Logoff on the other side and does nuke back, I'll think positively of them-and-all-my-gener...
Grumble grumble unilateralists' curse...
The charger was marked 150kWh, but my understanding is the best the Bolt can do, in ideal conditions with a battery below 50%, is 53kW. And the 23kWh I saw is about typical for a Bolt getting to 75%
I think that this paragraph should say "kW" instead of "kWh" both times? Either that, or I've misunderstood what you're trying to communicate.
I think all of Ben's and my proposals have assumed (without saying explicitly) that you shuffle within each suit. If you do that, then I think your concerns all go away? Let me know if you don't think so.
That makes sense; I am generally a big believer in the power of physical tokens in learning exercises. For example, I was pretty opposed to electronic transfers of the internal currency that Atlas Fellowship participants used to bet their beliefs (even though it was significantly more convenient than the physical stones that we also gave them to use).
I do think that the Figgie app has the advantage of taking care of the mechanics of figuring out who trades with who, or what the current markets are (which aren't core to the parts of the game I find most broadly useful), so I'm still trying to figure out whether I think the game is better taught with the app or with cards.
Good to hear it!
One of the things I find most remarkable about Figgie (cf. poker) is just how educational it can be with only a minimal explanation of the rules -- I'm generally pretty interested in what kinds of pedagogy can scale because it largely "teaches itself".
Do you think it was educational even though you were making clearly bad decisions / not at "an acceptable standard" for the first dozen games?
In a slightly different vein, I think the D&D.Sci series is great at training analysis and inference (though I will admit I haven't sat down to do one properly).
Depending on your exact goals, a simulated trading challenge might be better than that, which I have even more thoughts about (and hopefully, someday, plans for).
In my personal canon of literature, they never made a movie.
I think I've seen it...once? And cached the thought that it wasn't worth remembering or seeing again. When I wrote those paragraphs, I was thinking not at all about the portrayal in Hood's film, just what's in Card's novels and written works.
But I imagine that the most interesting rationality lessons from poker come from studying other players and exploiting them, rather than memorizing and developing an intuition for the pure game theory of the game.
Strongly agree. I didn't realize this when I wrote the original post, but I'm now convinced. It has been the most interesting / useful thing that I've learned in the working-out of Cunningham's Law with respect to this post.
And so, there's a reason that the curriculum for my and Max's course shifts away from Nash equilibrium as the solution con...
it's not too hard to come up with a protocol
For example: A moves the piles with B watching and C+D looking away, then C removes 1 / 3 / 3 / 5 cards from random piles and shuffles them together with D watching and A+B looking away.
Oh, I agree. Sort-of-relatedly, I asked a few poker pros at Manifest why we conventionally play 8-handed when we play socially, and my favorite answer was "because playing heads-up doesn't give you enough time to relax and chat". (My second-favorite, which is probably more explanatory, was "it's more economical for in-person casinos, and everyone else apes that.") And if you talk to home-game pros, they will absolutely have thoughts about how to win money on average while keeping their benefactors from knowing that they're reliably losing. The format of th...
Notice your confusion! It isn't zero-sum at the level of each individual exchange. If you'd like the challenge of figuring out why not (which I think you can probably do if you load in a 4-minute bot game, don't make any trades yourself, double-check the scoring, and think about what is happening), then I think it would be a useful exercise!
If you want the spoiler:
The player with the most of the goal suit gets paid a bonus of 100 or 120; this is the portion of the pot not paid out as ten chips per card. When two players trade a particular card from A who
For a good player sitting with a person who thinks 'all reds' is a good hand, it'll be obvious before you ever see their cards.
I basically agree that it will be obvious to you (a reasonable poker player) or even to me (an interested and over-theorized amateur), but as I said in a cousin comment, what actually matters is whether it'll be obvious to the student making the mistake, which is a taller order.
I think that "all reds" is overstated as literally written (I mean, you'll eventually go to showdown and have it explained to you), but I mean it to gest...
I'd also be happy to log on and play Figgie and/or post-match discussion sometime, if someone else wants to coordinate. I realistically won't be up for organizing a time, given what else competes for my cycles right now, but I would enthusiastically support the effort and show up if I can make it.
You know, I had read the football / futsal thesis way back when I was doing curriculum design at Jane Street, though it had gotten buried in my mind somewhere. Thanks for bringing it back up!
If I'm being honest, it smells like something that doesn't literally replicate, but it has a plausible-enough kernel of truth that it's worth taking seriously even if it's not literally true of youth in Brazil. And I do take it seriously, whether consciously or not, in my own philosophy of pedagogical game design.
Appreciate it, Ray.
I definitely don't think this is the definitive word on how we [quickly, efficiently, usefully, comprehensively...] train epistemic skills. In my opinion, too many blog posts in the world try to be the definitive word on their thesis instead of one page in an ongoing conversation, and I'm trying to correct that instinct in myself. Plausibly I could have been clearer about this epistemic status up-front.
In any case, I'm looking forward to getting to revisit this post in the context of my LessOnline conversations with Max, and with the lessons we both learn as we design and run the AI-games course.
I agree that I'm conflating a few different teaching objectives, and there are dimensions of "epistemics" that that trading in general doesn't teach. But on this I want to beg forgiveness on the grounds of, if I was fully recursively explicit about what I meant and didn't mean by every term, the post would have been even longer than it was.
I do have another long post to write with working title "What They Don't Teach You in Your Quant Trading Internship" about the ways that training in trading doesn't prepare you for other important things in the world, or...
That all sounds right, but I want to invert your setup.
If someone is playing too many hands, your first hypothesis is that they are too loose and making mistakes. If someone folds for 30 minutes, then steals the blinds once, then folds some more, you will have a hard time telling whether they're playing wrong or have had a bad run of cards.
But in either case, it is going to be significantly harder for them to tell, from inside their own still-developing understanding of the game, whether the things that are happening to them are evidence about their own mi...
(Separately from my sibling comment,) I think agree that the richest source of insight from poker is to be had in evaluating other players' off-equilibrium behavior and determining how to respond with off-equilibrium behavior of your own.
I think that it is easy to dramatically over-estimate how much of this the typical student(*) will actually do in their first several-hundred hours of playing the game. At a minimum, I think (I think common?) idea that the idea that GTO post-flop play is an intermediate-level technique and exploitative play is an advanced-...
I totally agree that poker (and I'll restrict to no-limit holdem especially) far surpasses nearly any other game at the broader cluster of goals. And I agree that there is a lot of value in the total of all the lessons you learn by fully mining out poker for insights.
My issue is really one of relative advantage / disadvantage, and of the ratio of grinding to insight across different parts of the learning curve. Together with some amount of, I think it's significantly more efficient to learn certain components separately and then to put them together than t...
As mentioned in the opening note, Max Chiswick and I are working on launching an online class that provides a ladder of practical challenges between "write a bot that plays tic-tac-toe" and "write a bot that achieves the 2019 state of the art in no-limit texas holdem". I'm excited to be working on this and teaching it not because I think that programming game-playing AIs is the great important skill of our time, but because I think that thinking about systematically playing imperfect-information games is one of the best ways to sharpen your skills at syste...
In the ranch case, I'm imagining that the protagonist believes that (a) and (b) do outweigh (c) to the net-positive.
But (c) is still significant, P says, so they conclude that "the benefits seem much larger than the harms, but the harms are still significant". Furthermore, is (c) "the kind of thing you ought to be able to 'cancel out' through donation [and/or harm-reducing influence]", or is it more like murder?
Is it sufficient that (a) and (b) outweigh (c), or is (c) the sort of thing we should avoid anyway?
In this situation, I feel like I'd be in exactly...
I expect there are other areas where this rule permits careers altruistically-minded people should avoid (even if the benefits seem to dramatically outweigh the costs) or rejects ones that are very important. Suggesting examples of either would be helpful!
Of the first sort: "The law is wrong and adherence to a stricter standard would be more right."
For example, eating farmed meat is legal, and in any conceivable legal system run by 2020s humans it would be legal. But I want an ethical system that can make sense of the fact that I want to eat vegetarian ...
Do you have interest in adding songs that have been sung in the Bay Area but not (yet?) in Boston? (e.g., Songs Stay Sung and The Fallen Star from this year) I could get lyrics and chords from the crew here for them, but also would understand if you want to keep it at a defined scope!
Apparently the forum's markdown implementation does not support spoilers (and I can't find it in the WYSIWIYG editor either).
I'm sympathetic to spoiler concerns in general, but where the medium doesn't allow hiding them, the context has focused on analysis rather than appreciation, and major related points have been spoiled upthread, I think the benefits of leaving it here outweigh the downsides.
I've added a warning at the top, and put in spoiler markdown in case the forum upgrades its parsing.
(Severe plot spoilers for Ra.)
It's even less apt than that, because in the narrative universe, the human race is fighting a rearguard action against uploaded humans who have decisively won the war against non-uploaded humanity.
In-universe King is an unreliable actively manipulative narrator, but even in that context, his concern is that his uploaded faction will be defenseless against the stronger uploaded faction once everyone is uploaded. (Not that they were well-defended in the counterfactual, since, well, they had just finished losing the war.)
I am curious how cousin_it has a different interpretation of that line in its context.
I believe this assumption typically comes from the Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem, which says that, if your preferences are complete, transitive, continuous, and independent, then there is some utility function such that your preferences are equivalent to "maximize expected ".
Those four assumptions have technical meanings:
There is a problem with completeness that requires studying the actual theorem and its construction of utility from preference. The preference function does not range over just the possible “outcomes” (which we suppose are configurations of the world or of some local part of it). It ranges over lotteries among these outcomes, as explicitly stated on the VNM page linked above. This implies that the idea of being indifferent between a sure gain of 1 util and a 0.1% chance of 1000 utils is already baked into the setup of these theorems, even before the proof ...
Seems correct.
Contagion also goes in this bucket and was basically made to do this on purpose by Participant Media.
7) Look, I dunno, all of this is years out of date. Maybe the game really done changed. But nothing that I've read from the concerned side makes me think that they've got a clear picture of what's on the ground (and in this way, I am not acting like a tabula rasa judge).
5) More fundamentally, what is debate for? Should it be practicing good, persuasive, honest argumentation by doing exactly that? Is it practice thinking about the structure of arguments, or their form, or their truth? Other?.
My $0.02 is that it's perfectly reasonable that policy debate bears the same relationship to persuasion that fencing bears to martial prowess. I think that training for this sport with these rules is good even though none of the constituent skills make any sense for self-defense.
In this view, CX isn't useful because debaters practice t...
4a) This is a misinterpretation:
it requires arguing obvious nonsense, with failure to accept such nonsense as the baseline of discussion, or insisting that it is irrelevant to the topic, treated as a de facto automatic loss.
On the contrary, an argument that [insert K here] is irrelevant to the topic, this is bad for debate, and the Neg should suffer an instant loss (we'd call this "framework") is bog-standard in the Aff reply. Only rookies get caught without their framework file.
On one hand, this is mostly the sort of nonsense flak that the Neg's topic...
3) More generally, there's a (dominant?) school of thought that policy debate judges, unlike any other humans, should be "tabula rasa" -- a blank slate not bringing any conclusions into the round -- and willing to accept the stronger argument on any point that comes up. Does building housing raise or lower property prices? Shrug, I'll accept the stronger argument. Will 3.5C of warming cause half the planet to die from food system collapse? Shrug, I'll accept the stronger argument. Will India and Pakistan start a nuclear war if [US trade policy plan]? Shrug...
2) As Zvi would have it, consider how this can be both true and the strongest possible true statement:
I reviewed all Tournament of Champions semifinal and final round recordings from 2015 to 2023, and found that about two-thirds of Policy rounds and almost half of Lincoln-Douglas rounds featured critical theory.
One huge part of the answer is that Standard Operating Procedure on the Negative side is to throw out several arguments against the Affirmative team's case, suss out where they were weak (or just blundered their reply), sever the rest and pile o...
1) K (which is what it's ~always called in the local lingo) is definitely not new. It's old enough that Rep. Ocasio-Cortez would have been doing it if she had debated policy in high school. Sure, it's gotten more prevalent over time, but if you walked into a debate round in 2009 and you couldn't answer "your plan is bad because your entire argument is capitalist", you were going to lose that round in front of nearly any judge. I'm willing to believe that social-location K is getting more popular/prevalent over time, though again, in 2009 critical-race Ks w...
Former debater here (around 2009-2011). The discussion about kritik strategies in policy debate has been frustrating to read, (even where I agree with parts of the critique of kritik!). Frankly, I think the kritik-critical bloggers have been following the model of "strongest statement I can make while still being true", and should be read accordingly. (This makes me sad! They are good people and I wish they would do better!)
Some specific notes, as sub-comments:
(parallel discussion of these at the substack post)
Why reflect on a fictional story written in 1954 for insight on artificial intelligence in 2023? The track record of mid-century science fiction writers is merely "fine" when they were writing nonfiction, and then there are the hazards of generalizing from fictional evidence.
Well, for better for for worse, many many people's intuitions and frameworks for reasoning about AI and intelligent robots will come from these stories. If someone is starting from such a perspective, and you're willing to meet them where they are, well, sometimes there's a surprisingl...
(You may well know this, but posting for the benefit of other readers.)
Nirmatrelvir, which is one of two drugs that make up Paxlovid, reduces long covid risk by about 30% for medically diagnosed infections (which means it was serious enough to actually get you to the doctor). An optimist might hope the other drug (which is in the same class, although most commonly used as an adjuvant) is also useful and round this to 50%.
......nirmatrelvir, which is one of the two drugs packaged together to make Paxlovid. I’m going to be an optimistic and assume the seco
On this point, you'll likely be interested in the discussion in Wednesday's Matt Levine. Excerpt:
...The third thing you get, the franchise and relationships, looked great a year ago when the tech industry was booming. It looked pretty good a week ago, when the tech industry was slumping but still prominent and profitable. But I think that the story of SVB’s failure has turned out to be that SVB was the banker to tech startups, and tech startups turned out to be incredibly dangerous customers for a bank. 2 So any other bank will have to be careful about acq
the government subsidy is the rate: no one edse will give you a loan so close to the risk-free rate when the whole purpose of the loan is that you're a bad credit risk.
For unsecured credit, absolutely. But the BTFP specifically is secured by rounds-to-Treasurys, and the rate it gives is the market-indexed rate for T-secured lending. Your credit really shouldn't come into the economic rate for your secured borrowing.
To the extent that a bank gets cheaper financing from BTFP, it seems to me much more like "other banks would charge you 1% over their econom...
Agree that equity incentives are the relevant forces in market self-regulation here.
That said, the (separate) Fed bailout for not-officially-failed banks...
I am reasonably confused about the BTFP commentary that I've read suggesting it's equivalent to a bailout. My reading of the terms is that it's basically the Fed offering to lend you $100 at (1yr) SOFR+10bp collateralized by (let's say) $75 face value of Treasurys, with general recourse.
If they were lending $100 at SOFR+10bp against $100 face value of Ts, that wouldn't even be a subsidy -- SOFR is s...
I'm no expert in US markets, but I don't think that's true. For instance, if you try to get a repo w them, you'll probably need a larger hair-cut than w gov bonds.
I suspect it is true that they're haircut less generously, but I do not believe that any part of SVB's trouble looked like "well, if only we could haircut our Agency MBS like our Treasurys, we'd be fine..."
The relevant fact about them for the SVB story is that their credit is insured (by the government, except with extra steps), so ultimately they're like a slightly-weirder interest-rate play,...
It might!
In case it would also help to have two-to-three Harvard and/or MIT professors who work on exactly this topic to write supporting letters or talk with your school board, I'll bet money at $1:$1 that I could arrange that. Or I'll give emails and a warm intro for free.