When you say "true probability", what do you mean?
The current hypotheses I have about what you mean are (in part non-exclusive):
Anton Leicht says evals are in trouble as something one could use in a regulation or law. Why? He lists four factors. Marius Hobbhahn of Apollo also has thoughts. I’m going to post a lot of disagreement and pushback, but I thank Anton for the exercise, which I believe is highly useful.
I think there's one important factor missing: if you really used evals for regulation, then they would be gamed. I trust more the eval when the company is not actually at stake on it. If it was, there would be a natural tendence for evals to slide towards empty box-checking.
Italians over time sorted themselves geographically by honesty, which is both weird and damn cool, and also makes a lot of sense. There are multiple equilibria, so let everyone find the one that suits them. We need to use this more in logic puzzles. In one Italian villa everyone tells the truth, in the other…
I can't get access to the paper, anyone has a tip on this?
I agree with whay you say about how to maximize what you get out of an interview. I also agree about that discussion vs. debate distinction you make, and I wasn't specifically trying to go there when I used the word "debate", I was just sloppy with words.
I guess you agree that it is friction to create a social norm that you should do a read up of the other person material before engaging in public. I expect less discussions would happen. There is not a clear threshold at how much you should be prepared.
I guess we disagree about how much value do we lose due to eliminating discussions that could have happaned, vs. how much value we gain by eliminating some lower quality discussions.
Another angle I have in mind that sidesteps this direct compromise, is that maybe what we value out of such discussions is not just doing an optimal play in terms of information transmitted between the parties. A public discussion has many different viewers. In the case at hand, I expect many people get more out of the discussion if they can see Wolfram think through the thing for the first time in real time, rather than having two informed people start discussing finer points in medias res.
I started reading, but I can't understand what the parity problem is, in the section that ought to define it.
I guess, the parity problem is finding the set S given black-box access to the function, is it?