thanks oli, and thanks for editing mine! appreciate the modding <3

thanks for writing this — also, some broad social encouragement for the practice of doing quick/informal lit reviews + posting them publicly! well done :)

that is... wild. thanks for sharing!

I think institutional market makers are basically not pricing [slow takeoff, or the expectation of one] in

why do you think they're not pricing this in?

Really love this post. Thanks for writing it!

thanks for the feedback on the website. here's the explanation we gave on the manifest announcement post:

In the week between LessOnline and Manifest, come hang out at Lighthaven with other attendees! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend casual workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the (again, literal) fire late into the night.

Summer Camp will be pretty lightweight: we’ll provide the space and the tools, and you & your fellow attendees will bring the discussions, workshops, tournaments, games, and whatever else you’re excited about organizing.

Here are the types of events you’ll see at Summer Camp:

• Hackathons (or “Forecastathons”)
• Organized discussions and workshops
• Jam sessions and dance parties
• Games of all kinds: social deception games, poker, MTG, jackbox, etc.
• Campy activities: sardines, s’mores, singalongs
• Multi-day intensive workshops, e.g. a CFAR-style workshop or a Quantitative Trading Bootcamp (Note: these may come at some extra cost, TBD by the organizers)

let me know if you have other questions.

I really enjoyed this — thank you for writing. I also think the updated version is a lot better than the previous version, and I appreciate the work you put in to update it. I'm really, really looking forward to the other posts in this sequence.

I'd also really enjoy a post that's on this exact topic, but one that I'd feel comfortable sending to my mom or something, cf "Broad adverse selection (for poets)."

cf "there's no speed limit"

relevant: story-based decision-making