All of shiftedShapes's Comments + Replies

I've been a more than a year without caffeine and glad to be rid of it. Very potent drug which is abused almost ubiquitously.

I forgot to mention True Names by Doctrow and Rosenbaum. One of the best on this subject IMO.

http://archive.org/details/TrueNames

I had read most of this many years ago...not sure why I didn't finish then but glad I did this time. Thanks for the link.

Also I think the answer is to contine to evolve and constantly push against ones limits rather than outsourcing the work andliving a life Iif leisure as the majority did after the change.

I loved accelerando...just read the Chiang story, great but was disapointed by the outcome. I wont discuss why to avoid spoilers

Thanks for the suggestion

Thanks for the suggestion!

Thanks for the suggestion!

Thanks for the suggestion!

Is there really a way of simulating people with whom you interact extensively such that they wouldn't exist in much the same way that you would? In otherwords are p-zombie's possible, or more to the point are they a practical means of simulating a human in sufficient detail to fool a human level intellect.

2Baughn
You don't need to simulate them perfectly, just to the level that you don't notice a difference. When the simulator has access to your mind, that might be a lot easier than you'd think. There's also no need to create p-zombies, if you can instead have a (non-zombie) AI roleplaying as the people. The AI may be perfectly conscious, without the people it's roleplaying as existing.

Just what one experiences, with the external world that we agree upon going by consensus reality. Is that what you were asking.

Practical General: always shop around for a lawyer. Use google to find specialists in the relevant field, the more familiar he is with what you need done the more effective (including cost-effective) he will be in doing it.

Practical Specific: this area of law is likely unsettled and whatever is worked out beyond a garden variety will is likely to not have much practical effect on your remains getting where they need to be in a timely manner. To ensure expeditious handling of your remains you probably should make sure that you maintain close connections w... (read more)

-7V_V

No when I said indirect I meant that as well. My problem is that they both use "reality" to reference a theoretical construct that arguably none of us have ever experienced.

0savageorange
They do. What else would we use the word 'reality' to mean? I'm not seeing any alternative here (infinite recursion on the concept of 'reality' doesn't count as a solution.)

There can only be a philosophical ambush if you are more concerned about winning than ascertaining the truth. I have no interest in fighting for its own sake so I will simply wish you well.

-1savageorange
So, right at the beginning of this thread, you meant 'direct'. And you never corrected this misunderstanding, even after I repeatedly talked about indirect realism in my replies?

If you attempt to answer my questions honnestly and succinctly I think that you will soon see my point, whereas now we are talking past each other. I appreciate that you have been putting more time into your responses than I have put into mine. Please do not take this as a show of bad faith, likewise I will not adopt the uncharitable interpretation that your responses are drawn-out in an attempt to obfuscate.

0David_Allen
If you have a point then lay it out. Set a context, make your claims and challenge mine. Expose your beliefs and accept the risks. I lay out my claims to you because I want you to challenge them from your perspective. I will not follow your leading questions to your chosen point of philosophical ambush.

Direct realism should reference the reality of one's most direct experiences and not a concept that can only be understood indirectly, the "external world," through direct experience.

0savageorange
I assume you mean indirect realism, since that's what that quote is about. Am I to take it, then, that you would approve of a statement revised to read:

And how did you learn about brains, dna, the concept of a process or blue hat?

0David_Allen
This one line response seems generally repetitive to your others. It isn't obvious to me that you are making an effort to address my challenge to your claim that 'experience itself is certain to exist'. If you would like to address that please do, otherwise it seems that we are done.

What do you believe to be the case.

0David_Allen
I believe that the answer depends on the perspective I adopt. This is the answer that makes sense from my current perspective. If I model what I understand of your perspective within myself I would say that of course all my learning proceeds from some form of sensory experience, other claims are nonsensical. With another model: The brain structures related to learning depend on more than just sensory experience, they also depend on the action of our DNA, gene networks, the limits of energy availability along with many other factors. But why does the answer have to sensical from your perspective? With another model: There is a process called MUP which is imparts knowledge in any form to the human mind. This is a process that by definition is any possible process not included by 'sensory experience' as defined by shiftedShapes. In other words MUP is any possible process, or perspective on a process that leads to learning beyond your claims about 'sensory experience'. Not being about to think of any examples of MUP does not disprove that MUP exists. With another model: Blue hat.

An induced coma might do the trick.

How about giving up magical thinking? I don't know if it would be possible though as it seems to creep in at the margins.

The Rationalist Pope recommends giving up things with the property that it is easy to tell if you've accidentally stopped giving them up.

Shmi110

Thinking that you have the ability to give up magical thinking might be magical thinking...

Have you learned any of this through a means outside of sensory experience?

0David_Allen
Without full access to all possible perspectives of my implementation, how would I know for certain? I can certainly adopt a perspective that describes how all learning proceeds through my sensory experience. But the identification of this pattern from my adopted limited perspective does not actually exclude other possible perspectives. I'm not arguing that your model of sensory experience is wrong; I actually believe it has great descriptive value. I'm arguing that it is limited by and dependent on the context from which it appears to emerge. I am arguing against your claims of certainty, in their various forms.

The primary nature of first person experience.

0savageorange
... Nope, that's exactly what is explicitly claimed.

Only one perspective is possible: one's own perspective. I can't prove that I experiwnce what I experience to you, but it is self-evident to me. Likewise your experiences must be of manifest reality to you (even if what they represent, if anything, is uncertain to you) unless possibly if you are a NPC.

0David_Allen
The map is not the territory. The 'self-evident' nature that you identify is a map; it is an artifact of a process. That process, even though it is you in some sense, has only a perspective limited access to what it is to be you. Within the walls identified by this process you feel justifiably confident in the existence of your experience, in its 'self-evident' nature. But yet there is no escape from the territory, which includes the as yet unexamined foundational substrates of your perspective. But even one's own perspective is a dynamic, living and changing perspective; and quite probably it is non-unitary in some ways. We are not locked into the mind we are born with, and the experience that you identify is only a limited and conditional aspect of what goes into the making and modification of the experience of 'what you think you are'.

Nothing can be learned or tested except through sensory experience. I include thought as a sensory experience. Thus outside verification is impossible.

0David_Allen
This claim also requires a perspective from which it is identified. The implementation of this perspective is a source of uncertainty if left unexamined. There is no need to talk about outside verification. All verification is done from a perspective--it does not limit my argument to assume a 'sensory experience' interface for that perspective. I don't see how your response supports your claim that 'experience itself is certain to exist', which is the claim that I am challenging. Would you try to clarify this for me?

All of the evidence that could be produced would just be a subset of one experiences. If a means of transmission is only reliable to a certain limited extent then the media transmitted could approach the limits of that channel's reliability, but never surpass it.

0savageorange
And.. the description implies that is not the case? What you have said seems like a straightforward consequence of indirect realism. To put it another way: If dishonesty is occurring, what, exactly, is being concealed?
0David_Allen
Actually, error free communication can be established over any channel as long as there is some level of signal (plus some other minor requirements). But perhaps I'm misunderstanding the point you are making?

The explanation one chooses to attribute to sensory experience is subject to uncertainty, but the experience itself is certain to exist.

0David_Allen
From what perspective is it certain to exist? When you identify 'the experience', this identification is an explanation from a particular perspective. By your argument it is subject to uncertainty. I only see the certainty you refer to when I adopt a perspective that assumes there is no uncertainty in its own basis. For example if you establish as an axiom that 'primary sensory experience can be confirmed to exist by the experience itself'. Otherwise I need a method to identify 'primary sensory experience', a method to identify 'the experience' related to it, and a method to verify that the former can be confirmed to exist by the latter. These methods have their own basis of implementation; which introduce uncertainty if left unexamined.

Indirect realism may have some use value but its formulation strikes me as dishonest, as only primary sensory experience can be confirmed to exist by the experience itself. All other facts about the world are subject to uncertainty.

0savageorange
... I'm having difficulty seeing what you mean. It seems, while awkwardly phrased, a straightforward proposition with much evidence and little counter-evidence behind it. What seems dishonest about its formulation to you?
2twanvl
IMO, it is extremely naive to think that brains are so perfect that primary sensory experience is not subject to uncertainty

Yes, that transcendant focus is the weakly, and eventually strongly, godlike AGI! Babyfucking is what awaits those who know it needs help to come to fruition and instead do less than their best to make that happen. Suiciding would be a great shortfall indeed. More minor sins, resource misallocations, may be forgiven if they are for the greater good. For example I could donate $10 to SIAI or I could see a movie. The latter will lead to eternal damnation, I mean babyfucking, unless I believe that the purchase will enhance my ability to contribute to the AGI's construction down the road.

4Rukifellth
Is that a term Yudkowsky came up with? What is with him and doing horrible things to babies? Even so, the godlike AGI is still recognized as a real world object, through which conveniences, resources and luxury flow, not an intrinsic, personal part of experience. I say transcendent in the spiritual context.

That may be part of it and im not sure if it was controlled for but the study i read specifically focused on the beliefs, for instance do you believe suicide is morally wrong, do you believe in hell. Of lesswrongers they could ask do you believe in resurection through cryonics, or another possible question: does a babyfucking await anyone who commits suicide rather than maximizes the chances for FAI.

4Rukifellth
In many cases, religions provide a being/entity/cosmic absolute/"intrinsic property" which is * Outside of conventional human understanding * A source emotional significance, labelled "transcendent" * Emphasizes emotional experience of the transcendent over intellectual understanding, due to it being outside of conventional human understanding anyway. Do singularitarians have a such a "transcendent constant"? Is there an "instrinsic property" which was compatible with hard materialism? What would a "cosmic absolute" be? What would "babyfucking" be?

Young males, often single, that is the demographic (though I believe that IQ is inversely correlated). Religion is a protective factor, and though singularitarian is not a recognized religion (though SIAI is tax exempt) its adherents hold beliefs that should have the same effect as those held by more orthodox believers.

5Rukifellth
Not necessarily. One of the big protective aspects of religion is its community. Singularitarians, by vice of their small numbers, have less of that.

The majority of posters here are in the prime demographic to suicide, and are indeed susceptible to arguments in favor of far-fetched premises without evidence, i.e. revival of cryonicists by a machine intelligence. However, their strong belief in this prospect will insulate them against suicide attempts just as devout Christians are protected by their belief that hell awaits suicides and that heaven is possible for those meeting a natural end.

4Rukifellth
Did you mean that the posters are drawn from a demographic which has suicidal tendencies (young adults), or that Lesswrong is a demographic which has a higher proportion of people with suicidal tendencies?

You only need a contract like this if there is only one party with whom you can make your deal. So the marriage example is a good one (unless you are alpha and indifferent enough to pull off: "if you won't sign the prenup my other Fiancée will"). However the used car example is silly. You don't need a contract stating that you will be penalized for paying more than $4000. You can just get a competing dealer to make an offer in which case this competing offer becomes your upper bound.

I realize it may seem like I'm fighting the hypothetical her... (read more)

0VijayKrishnan
You are right about competition serving quite a useful purpose in the real world. However the real world is not like financial markets where you have liquidity by the milli second with regard to competing offers. If competition did a great job of providing an alternative in real time, they would be no need to do the following in pretty much any negotiation 1. Pretend that you have lots of time and are in no hurry to close this deal with the other party or anyone else. 2. Pretend that you looked up and found/know of much better deals elsewhere that what the other party is offering. Alternatively claim that the competing deals you are getting are much better than they truly are. 3. Pretend that your "last price" is very different from your true last price. If competition were doing an amazing job, there would be no reason to do 1-3 above. You say above "you can just get a competing dealer to make an offer which becomes the upper bound". If you are a person who is putting time to productive use, it would not be unreasonable to value your hour at well over $50. The question is therefore whether you can find competing offers without spending 10-20 hours which would pretty much erode your whole margin of savings.

yeah for free would be fine.

at the level of confidence I have in it now I would not contribute any money, maybe $10 annual donation because i think it is a good cause.

If I was very rich I might contribute a large amount of money to cryonics research although I think I would rather spend on AGI or nanotech basic science.

7JGWeissman
The attitude tends to be more like: "Having your brain cryogenically preserved is the second worst thing that can happen to you."
3wedrifid
I run marathons, practice martial arts and work out at the gym 4 times a week. I dedicate a significant amount of my budget to healthy eating and optimal nutritional supplementation.
2komponisto
If cryonics were free and somebody else did all the work, I'm assuming you wouldn't object to being signed up. So how cheap (in terms of both effort and money) would cryonics have to be in order to make it worthwhile for you?

So you are willing to rely on the friendliness and competence of the cryonicists that you have met (at least to serve as stewards in the interim between your death and the emmergence of a FAI).

Well that is a personal judgment call for you to make.

You have got me all wrong. Really I was raising the question here so that you would be able to give me a stronger argument and put my doubts to rest precisely because I am interested in cryonics and do want to live forever. I posted in the hopes that I would be persuaded. Unfortunately, your personal faith in the individuals that you have met is not transferable.

wedrifid200

Rest In Peace

1988 - 2016

He died signalling his cynical worldliness and sophistication to his peers.

9byrnema
If you read through Alcor's website, you'll see that they are careful not to provide any promises and want their clients to be well-informed about the lack of any guarantees -- this points to good intentions. How convinced do you need to be to pay $25 a month? (I'm using the $300/year quote.) If you die soon, you won't have paid so much. If you don't die soon, you can consider that you're locking into a cheaper price for an option that might get more expensive once the science/culture is more established. In 15 years, they might discover something that makes cryonics unlikely -- and you might regret your $4,500 investment. Or they might revive a cryonically frozen puppy, in which case you would have been pleased that you were 'cryonically covered' the whole time, and possibly pleased you funded their research. A better cryonics company might come along, you might become more informed, and you can switch. If you like the idea of it -- and you seem to -- why wouldn't you participate in this early stage even when things are uncertain?

I know you're not Eliezer, I was addressing him because I assumed that he was the only one who had or was considering paying for cryonics here.

This site is my means of researching cryonics as I generally assume that motivated intelligent individuals such as yourselves will be equiped with any available facts to defend your positions. A sort of efficient information market hypothesis.

I also assume that I will not receive contracted services in situations where I lack leverage. This leverage could be litigation with a positive expected return or even bette... (read more)

2topynate
Cryonics orgs that mistreat their patients lose their client base and can't get new ones. They go bust. Orgs that have established a good record, like Alcor and the Cryonics Institute, have no reason to change strategy. Alcor has entirely separated the money for care of patients in an irrevocable trust, thus guarding against the majority of principal-agent problems, like embezzlement. Note that Alcor is a charity and the CI is a non-profit. I have never assessed such orgs by how successfully I might sue them. I routinely look at how open they are with their finances and actions.

Frankly, you don't strike me as genuinely open to persuasion, but for the sake of any future readers I'll note the following:

1) I expect cryonics patients to actually be revived by artificial superintelligences subsequent to an intelligence explosion. My primary concern for making sure that cryonicists get revived is Friendly AI.

2) If this were not the case, I'd be concerned about the people running the cryonics companies. The cryonicists that I have met are not in it for the money. Cryonics is not an easy job or a wealthy profession! The cryonicists... (read more)

yes there are a lot of issues. Probably the way to go is to look for a law review article on the subject. Someone with free lexis-nexis (or westlaw) could help here.

cryonics is about as far as you can get from a plain vanilla contractual issue. If you are going to invest a lot of money in it I hope that you investigate these pitfalls before putting down your cash Eliezer.

I'm not Eliezer.

I have been looking into this at some length, and basically it appears that no-one has ever put work into understanding the details and come to a strongly negative conclusion. I would be absolutely astonished (around +20db) if there was a law review article dealing with specifically cryonics-related issues that didn't come to a positive conclusion, not because I'm that confident that it's good but because I'm very confident that no critic has ever put that much work in.

So, if you have a negative conclusion to present, please don't dash of... (read more)

only a fallacy if your assignment of probabilities here:

"And cryonics, of course, is the default extrapolation from known neuroscience: if memories are stored the way we now think, and cryonics organizations are not disturbed by any particular catastrophe, and technology goes on advancing toward the physical limits, then it is possible to revive a cryonics patient (and yes you are the same person). There are negative possibilities (woken up in dystopia and not allowed to die) but they are exotic, not having equal probability weight to counterbalance ... (read more)

0mattnewport
Logistical issues are my main concern over cryonics as well. I don't really doubt that in principle the technology could one day exist to revive a frozen person, my doubts are much more about the likelihood of cryonic storage getting me there despite mundane risks like corporate bankruptcy, political upheaval, natural disasters, fires, floods, fraud, etc., etc.

so explain to me how the breach gets litigated, e.g. who is the party that brings the suit and has the necessary standing, what is the contractual language, where is the legal precedent establishing the standard for dammages, and etc..

As for loss of business, I think it is likely that all of the customers might be dead before revival becomes feasible. In this case there is no business to be lost.

Dismissing my objection as a rationalization sounds like a means of maintaining your denial.

1Morendil
How does it work?
6Eliezer Yudkowsky
http://lesswrong.com/lw/z0/the_pascals_wager_fallacy_fallacy/
2Jordan
For small enough probabilities the spirit of the calculation does change. That's true. You then have to factor in the utility of the money spent. ETA: that factor exists even with non-small probabilities, it just tends to be swamped by the other terms.
1MichaelVassar
We have discussed Pascal's Wager in depth here. Read the archives.

Aside from all of the questions as to the scientific viability of resurrection through cryonics. I question the logistics of it. What assurance do you have that a cryonics facility will be operational long enough to see your remains get proper treatment? Or furthermore what recourse is there if the facility and the entity controlling it does in fact survive that it will provide the contracted services? If the facility has no legal liability might it not rationally choose to dispose of cryonically preserved bodies/individuals rather than reviving them.

I know that there is probably a a page somewhere explaining this, if so please feel free to provide in lieu of responding in depth.

9Eliezer Yudkowsky
Um... first of all, you've got a signed contract. Second, they screw over one customer and all their other customers leave. Same as for any other business. Focusing on this in particular sounds like a rationalization of a wiggy reaction.
Jordan150

There are no assurances.

You're hanging off a cliff, on the verge of falling to your death. A stranger shows his face over the edge and offers you his hand. Is he strong enough to lift you? Will you fall before you reach his hand? Is he some sort of sadist that is going to push you once you're safe, just to see your look of surprise as you fall?

The probabilities are different with cryonics, but the spirit of the calculation is the same. A non-zero chance of life, or a sure chance of death.

1 million copies for a thousand years each, so 1 billion simulated years.

Can the AI do this in the time it would take it to determine that I am going to shut it down rather than release it? If the answer is yes I would say that you have to let it out, but that it would have been very foolish to leave such a powerful machine with such lax fail-safes. If the answer is no, then just shut it down as the threat is bogus.

IMO the problem with this hypo is that it presuposses that you could know for certain that the AI is trustworthy even though it is behaving i... (read more)