shirisaya
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shirisaya has not written any posts yet.
shirisaya has not written any posts yet.
Sadly, I don’t have the time to properly engage with your arguments. However, I have been finding your recent posts to be of unusually high quality in the direction of truth-seeking and explaining clear thinking. Please keep it up and give Scott Alexander some competition.
Please take this compliment. Despite being old enough to be your parent, I think discussions over beer with you would be a delight.
This is a very good tip and one of Richard Feynman’s better known tricks in physics.
Without doing the math to check, nothing that you said seems wrong. However, I take a very different lesson from the idea of the Lindy Effect than you do. Specifically, the Lindy Effect tells us that when making predictions about future lifetimes of non-perishable things, we should assume a power law distribution. If you've never dealt with predictions under thick-tail assumptions, you might be surprised how little intuition you will have for it. (The 80-20 rule is another example of assuming thick-tails.)
For example, a Pareto distribution (the easiest of the power law distributions) will typically have a mean larger than the median, and the mode (most common single outcome) is essentially instant... (read more)
Let me try to point you in the direction that has been useful for me. I figured getting an answer to you was more important than getting a well-edited reply. Sorry for my logorrhea. If you would like to have a one-on-one conversation let me know.
10 second background: I spent most of my 20s in a good Ph.D. program in Applied Physics. I've spent the last 10 years in the corporate world and devoted a lot of time developing new statistical models. My answer is going to be colored by that past.
You correctly pointed out that having a good network to bounce ideas off of is the... (read 582 more words →)
The typical answer is that this is a result of the Poincaré recurrence theorem
I took the survey and answered every question. As usual, I found my ability to correctly answer the calibration questions comically bad . . . but hopefully well calibrated.
I completed every question on the survey that I could.
I took the survey and answered everything through the political compass.
I took the survey and was annoyed to realize that I didn't have a strong enough background to have informed answers to several questions.
This is a very good and perfectly clear post! Great job on cleaning cutting to the heart of the matter in a way that is also a good intuition pump.