EDIT: 8/12 added a paragraph with a link to my post with more stats under the regression
Copied and pasted in its entirety from my blog
Time to try my hand at another unsolvable crisis of the modern world. It is my opinion that something doesn’t add up about the increase in obesity and in all metabolic disorders in industrialized countries. There are a bevy of different theories out there, and it was my initial intuition that the problem, like many others plaguing complex systems, was multi-faceted. In addition, if there was an easy solution, epistemic humility would force me to contend with the fact that I’m just a layman in terms of nutrition,... (read 2917 more words →)
My intuition is that if market participants go too many levels deep in terms of mind games that you’re exactly correct. It just kinda ends up in the right place when you average it all out, maybe there’s a slight risk premium but that’s usually it