What is the probability that the human race will NOT make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out more than 90% of humanity?

Could we have this question be phrased using no negations instead of two? Something like "What is the probability that there will be a global catastrophe that wipes out 90% or more of humanity before 2100."

Thanks for writing these posts Zvi <3 I've found them to be quite helpful.

Hi Clovis! Something that comes to mind is Zvi's dating roundup posts in case you haven't seen them yet. 

I think people see it and think "oh boy I get to be the fat people in Wall-E"

(My friend on what happens if the general public feels the AGI)

This chapter on AI follows immediately after the year in review, I went and checked the previous few years' annual reports to see what the comparable chapters were about, they are

2023: China's Efforts To Subvert Norms and Exploit Open Societies

2022: CCP Decision-Making and Xi Jinping's Centralization Of Authority

2021: U.S.-China Global Competition (Section 1: The Chinese Communist Party's Ambitions and Challenges at its Centennial

2020: U.S.-China Global Competition (Section 1: A Global Contest For Power and Influence: China's View of Strategic Competition With the United States)

And this year it's Technology And Consumer Product Opportunities and Risks (Chapter 3: U.S.-China Competition in Emerging Technologies)

Reminds of when Richard Ngo said something along the lines of "We're not going to be bottlenecked by politicians not caring about AI safety. As AI gets crazier and crazier everyone would want to do AI safety, and the question is guiding people to the right AI safety policies"

I think^[1] people^[2] probably trust individual tweets way more than they should. 

Like, just because someone sounds very official and serious, and it's a piece of information that's inline with your worldviews, doesn't mean it's actually true. Or maybe it is true, but missing important context. Or it's saying A causes B when it's more like A and C and D all cause B together, and actually most of the effect is from C but now you're laser focused on A. 
 

Also you should be wary that the tweets you're seeing are optimized for piquing the interests of people like you, not truth. 

I'm definitely not the first person to say this, but feels like it's worth it to say it again.

1. ^{^}

   75% Confident maybe?

2. ^{^}

   including some rationalists on here

Sorry, is there a timezone for when the applications would close by, or is it AoE?

Man, politics really is the mind killer

I think knowing the karma and agreement is useful, especially to help me decide how much attention to pay to a piece of content, and I don't think there's that much distortion from knowing what others think. (i.e., overall benefits>costs)