Where is the spike in places like Georgia and Texas?

There wasn’t one, because the activities people resumed as a result of the ‘reopening’ aren’t important. The places that reopened seem like crazy things to open, like tattoo parlors and gyms, but they aren’t getting much activity, aren’t packed and are taking precautions.

Author should update this to indicate they were wrong, as it is clear that spikes in both of these states have occurred since this article was written. See https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html and https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html. I don't know what parts of the author's model are invalidated by this prediction failure, would be curious to hear how their thinking has changed (or not) by this data.