Carl is basically pointing out that assessing predictions is tricky business, because it's hard to be objective.
Here are a few points that need to be taken into account:
1. People have a lot to gain from being pessimistically defensive. It prevents them from being disappointed at some point in the future. The option for being pleasantly surprised, remains open. Being defensively pessimistic also prevents you from looking crazy to your peers. After all... who wants to be the only one in a group of 10 to think that by 2030 we'll have nanobots in our brains?
Carl is basically pointing out that assessing predictions is tricky business, because it's hard to be objective.
Here are a few points that need to be taken into account:
1. People have a lot to gain from being pessimistically defensive. It prevents them from being disappointed at some point in the future. The option for being pleasantly surprised, remains open. Being defensively pessimistic also prevents you from looking crazy to your peers. After all... who wants to be the only one in a group of 10 to think that by 2030 we'll have nanobots in our brains?
2.... (read more)