All of tim_dettmers's Comments + Replies

Thanks, Ethan! I updated the post with that info!

The brain does not use quantum computing as far as I know. At least not in the sense that would be highly beneficial computationally. The brain achieves a compute density many orders of magnitude denser than any classical computer we will ever able to design at about 20 W of energy that is the primary advantage of the brain. We cannot build such a structure with silicon, because it would overheat. Even if we would be able to cool it (room temperature superconductors), there is no way to manufacture it. 3D memory is just a couple of layers extra but the yie... (read more)

Answer by tim_dettmers*30

My estimate is very different from what others suggest and this stems from my background and my definition of AGI. I see AGI as human-level intelligence. If we present a problem to an AGI system, we would expect that it does not make any "silly" mistakes, but that it makes reasonable responses like a competent human would do.

My background: I work in deep learning on very large language models. I worked on the parallelization of deep learning in the past. I also have in-depth knowledge of GPUs and accelerators in general. I developed the fasted a... (read more)

2Ethan Perez
Love this take. Tim, did you mean to put some probability on the >2100 bin? I think that would include the "no AGI ever" prediction, and I'm curious to know exactly how much probability you assign to that scenario.
5Ben Pace
I so want to see a bet come out of this.
2Raemon
Do you think the human brain uses quantum computing? (It's not obvious that human brain structure is any easier to replicate than quantum computing, and I haven't thought about this at all, but it seems like an existence proof of a suitable "hardware", and I'd weakly guess it doesn't use QC)