Ursus

Thanks for the response.

However, I think you misunderstood what I was attempting to say. I see I didn't use the term "filtered evidence", and am wondering if my comment showed up somewhere other than the article "what evidence filtered evidence": http://lesswrong.com/lw/jt/what_evidence_filtered_evidence/ Explaining how I got a response so quickly when commenting on a 5 year old article! If so, my mistake as my comment was then completely misleading!

When the information does not come from a filtered source, I agree with you. If I find out that there is evidence that will be in the up (or down) direction of a belief, this will modify my priors based on the degree of entanglement between the source and... (read 563 more words →)

I'm trying to incorporate this with conservation of expected evidence: http://lesswrong.com/lw/ii/conservation_of_expected_evidence/

For example: "On average, you must expect to be exactly as confident as when you started out. Equivalently, the mere expectation of encountering evidence—before you've actually seen it—should not shift your prior beliefs." -Eliezer_Yudkowsky AND "Your actual probability starts out at 0.5, rises steadily as the clever arguer talks (starting with his very first point, because that excludes the possibility he has 0 points)" -Eliezer_Yudkowsky

Appear to be contradictions, given that each point= a piece of evidence (shininess of box, presence of blue stamp, etc).

The cherry picking problem appears to be similar to the witch trial problem. In the latter any piece of evidence is interpreted to support... (read more)