Blue Origin was started two years earlier (2000 v 2002), had much better funding for most of its history,
This claim is untrue. SpaceX has never had less money than Blue Origin. It is maybe true that Blue Origin had fewer obligations attached to this money, since it was exclusively coming from Bezos, rather than a mix of investment, development contracts, and income for SpaceX, but the baseline claim that SpaceX was “money-poor” is false.
I need to remake the graph with more recent data, but here is a graphic of US energy additions.
https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53977597462_2095add298_k.jpg
Nonrenewables are a walking dead at this point. I wouldn't personally tell the story of it through Musk—I think cost curves and China are a more relevant framing—but the end point is much the same.
LeelaKnightOdds has convincingly beaten both Awonder Liang and Anish Giri at 3+2 by large margins, and has an extremely strong record at 5+3 against people who have challenged it.
I think 15+0 and probably also 10+0 would be a relatively easy win for Magnus based on Awonder, a ~150 elo weaker player, taking two draws at 8+3 and a win and a draw at 10+5. At 5+3 I'm not sure because we have so little data at winnable time controls, but wouldn't expect an easy win for either player.
It's also certainly not the case that these few-months-old networks running a somewhat improper algorithm are the best we could build—it's known at minimum that this Leela is tactically weaker than normal and can drop endgame wins, even if humans rarely capitalize on that.
Fundamentally, the story was about the failure cases of trying to make capable systems that don't share your values safe by preventing specific means by which its problem solving capabilities express themselves in scary ways. This is different to what you are getting at here, which is having those systems actually operationally share your values. A well aligned system, in the traditional ‘Friendly AI’ sense of alignment, simply won't make the choices that the one in the story did.
I was finding it a bit challenging to unpack what you're saying here. I think, after a reread, that you're using ‘slow’ and ‘fast’ in the way I would use ‘soon’ and ‘far away’ (aka. referring to the time it will occur from the present). Is this read about correct?
If ‘Opt into Petrov Day’ was aside something other than a big red ominous button, I would think the obvious answer is that it's a free choice and I'd be positively inclined towards it. Petrov Day is a good thing with good side effects, quite unlike launching nuclear weapons.
It is confusing to me that it is beside a big red ominous button. On the one hand, Petrov's story is about the value of caution. To quote a top comment from an older Petrov Day,
Petrov thought the message looked legit, but noticed there were clues that it wasn't.
On the other hand, risk-taking is good, opting in to good things is good, and if one is taking Petrov Day to mean ‘don't take risks if they look scary’ I think one is taking an almost diametrically wrong message from the story.
All that said, for now I am going to fall for my own criticism and not press the big red ominous button around Petrov Day.
I'm interested in having Musk-company articles on LessWrong if it can be done while preserving LessWrong norms. I'm a lot less interested in it if it means bringing in sarcasm, name calling, and ungrounded motive-speculation.
if, judging by looking at some economical numbers, poverty already doesn't exist for centuries, why do we feel so poor
Let's not forget that people who read LW, often highly intelligent and having well-paying jobs such as software development
This underlines what I find so incongruous about EY's argument. I think I genuinely felt richer as a child eating free school meals in the UK but going to a nice school and whose parents owned a house than I do as an obscenely-by-my-standards wealthy person in San Francisco. I'm hearing this elaborate theory to explain why social security doesn't work when I have lived through and seen in others clear evidence that it can and it does. If the question “why hasn't a factor-100 increase in productivity felt like a factor-100 increase in productivity?” was levied at my childhood specifically, my response is that actually it felt like exactly that.
By the standards of low earning households my childhood was probably pretty atypical and I don't mean to say there aren't major systemic issues, especially given the number of people locked into bad employment, people with lives destroyed by addiction, people who struggle to navigate economic systems, people trapped in abusive or ineffectual families, etc. etc. etc. I really don't want to present a case just based on my lived experience, even including those I know living various lives under government assistance. But equally I think someone's lived experience of being wealthy in San Francisco and seeing drug addicts on the street is also not seeing an unbiased take of what social security does for poverty.
Eg. a moderately smart person asking it to do something else by trying a few prompts. We're getting better at this for very simple properties but I still consider it unsolved there.
I failed to find an example easily when checking twitter this way.