Technical staff at Anthropic (views my own), previously #3ainstitute; interdisciplinary, interested in everything, ongoing PhD in CS, bets tax bullshit, open sourcerer, more at zhd.dev
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https://www.cleanairkits.com/products/luggables is basically one side of a Corsi-Rosenthal box, takes up very little floor space if placed by a wall, and is quiet, affordable, and effective.
SQLite is ludicrously well tested; similar bugs in other databases just don't get found and fixed.
I don't remember anyone proposing "maybe this trader has an edge", even though incentivising such people to trade is the mechanism by which prediction markets work. Certainly I didn't, and in retrospect it feels like a failure not to have had 'the multi-million dollar trader might be smart money' as a hypothesis at all.
1(4) is infeasible, because voting systems are designed so that nobody can identify which voter cast which vote - including that voter. This property is called "coercion resistance", which should immediately suggest why it is important!
I further object that any scheme to "win" an election by invalidating votes (or preventing them, etc) is straightforwardly unethical and a betrayal of the principles of democracy. Don't give the impression that this is acceptable behavior, or even funny to joke about.
let's not kill the messenger, lest we run out of messengers.
Unfortunately we're a fair way into this process, not because of downvotes[1] but rather because the comments are often dominated by uncharitable interpretations that I can't productively engage with.[2]. I've had researchers and policy people tell me that reading the discussion convinced them that engaging when their work was discussed on LessWrong wasn't worth the trouble.
I'm still here, sad that I can't recommend it to many others, and wondering whether I'll regret this comment too.
I also feel there's a double standard, but don't think it matters much. Span-level reacts would make it a lot easier to tell what people disagree with though. ↩︎
Confidentiality makes any public writing far more effortful than you might expect. Comments which assume ill-faith are deeply unpleasant to engage with, and very rarely have any actionable takeaways. I've written and deleted a lot of other stuff here, and can't find an object-level description that I think is worth posting, but there are plenty of further reasons. ↩︎
I'd find the agree/disagree dimension much more useful if we split out "x people agree, y disagree" - as the EA Forum does - rather than showing the sum of weighted votes (and total number on hover).
I'd also encourage people to use the other reactions more heavily, including on substrings of a comment, but there's value in the anonymous dis/agree counts too.
(2) ✅ ... The first is from Chief of Staff at Anthropic.
The byline of that piece is "Avital Balwit lives in San Francisco and works as Chief of Staff to the CEO at Anthropic. This piece was written entirely in her personal capacity and does not reflect the views of Anthropic."
I do not think this is an appropriate citation for the claim. In any case, They publicly state that it is not a matter of “if” such artificial superintelligence might exist, but “when” simply seems to be untrue; both cited sources are peppered with phrases like 'possibility', 'I expect', 'could arrive', and so on.
If grading I'd give full credit for (2) on the basis of "documents like these" referring to Anthopic's constitution + system prompt and OpenAI's model spec, and more generous partials for the others. I have no desire to litigate details here though, so I'll leave it at that.
2Proceeding with training or limited deployments of a "potentially existentially catastrophic" system would clearly violate our RSP, at minimum the commitment to define and publish ASL-4-appropriate safeguards and conduct evaluations confirming that they are not yet necessary. This footnote is referring to models which pose much lower levels of risk.
And it seems unremarkable to me for a US company to 'single out' a relevant US government entity as the recipient of a voluntary non-public disclosure of a non-existential risk.
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Because I saw a few posts discussing his trades, vs none for anyone else's, which in turn is presumably because he moved the market by ten percentage points or so. I'm not arguing that this "should" make him so salient, but given that he was salient I stand by my sense of failure.