Perhaps forensic magic is better than you're assuming it is. There may be ways to tell how much magic has been used in an area, and on what. I've seen fanfics at least with ways to check what spells were most recently cast by wands. It would be pretty obvious that the Potters never got a chance to fire a spell off.
That spell is canon. In the fourth book, HP & the Goblet of Fire, they use the Priori Icantato spell to try and determine who cast the Dark Mark. There's also legilimens, the spell used to look into another's mind. Using just these two spells, you can set up a reasonable course of events.
Presumably, forensics arrives on the scene and sees the destruction. There's a set of Voldemort's robes on the ground along with his wand (NB: you never ever part with your wand). There's a dead Lily and James Potter, along with a baby with an odd looking scar. First thing's first, they examine the wand, confirm it's Voldemort's and reveal that the last spells were 3x Killing Curse. Next they look at the baby and extract it's memories, showing what just happened. Then they check any recording devices in the house, and look at the state of footprints, wards, etc. showing who came and went. Finally, Snape talks to Dumbledore and with that information they put together the pieces of why the Dark Lord went there that night.
People cheer and declare that Harry Potter Day! The upper echelons aren't convinced. To use a chess metaphor, perhaps the Dark Lord merely pretended to open up his queen to bait a checkmait. But then the Dark Lord still never returns. His inner circle is taken down, captured death eaters are in disarray. His artifacts and strongholds are taken. Clearly, they reason, he must be dead. There's no reason for his absence except for his destruction. One does not sacrifice every piece on the board for any gambit, no matter how clever.
A few people still hold onto the alternate hypothesis that the Dark Lord faked his death, but that is considered a crackpot theory. Why would the Dark Lord disappear and let his fledgling empire crumble into ruin? Why would the Dark Lord leave his wand? Why would the Dark Lord go through an elaborate hoax on what is seemingly a routine hit mission? What possible plot would involve him disappearing from the face of the earth for ten years? The 'Dark Lord still lives!' crackpots would be the equivalent of 9/11 Truthers of the magical world. Those who believe in his death are the rational ones.
It's merely confirmation bias that makes it seem so obvious to us.
In Summation, the strongest evidence for that night isn't the magic. That is quite costly but easily faked. The best evidence for his death is in his absence for over a decade.
Note also that, in canon, the Priori Incantatem effect (and therefore plausibly also the Priori Incantato spell) will show the specific person who was AKed. If V.'s wand shows him killing baby Harry, and baby Harry is right there and conspicuously alive, that would be fairly specific evidence in favor of the "survived the Killing Curse" hypothesis.
There's a set of Voldemort's robes on the ground along with his wand (NB: you never ever part with your wand).
I don't have time to check the MoR archives, but didn't Bellatrix retrieve the wand? Or did Voldemort give it to her before he went to Godric's Hollow and just take another wand?
"Your wand," murmured Bellatrix, "I hid it in the graveyard, my lord, before I left... under the tombstone to the right of your father's grave...
He could have given it to her before he left (which would be evidence that he planned his 'absence') or she could have, say, taken a detour on the way to the Longbottoms' place to steal it back from the forensic Aurors and hide it.
Also, if the wand is still there I will be very disappointed in Dumbledore.
I'm guessing they used Priori Incantato on the wand left by Voldemort's corpse.
Edit, already explained better and in more detail in Xachariah's comment.
It seems to me like the Love Shield should be common knowledge in the Wizarding World. People getting killed protecting other people isn't exactly unheard of.
If those were the only necessary conditions for a Love Shield, certainly Harry wouldn't have been the only person ever to survive the killing curse.
If those were the only necessary conditions for a Love Shield, certainly Harry wouldn't have been the only person ever to survive the killing curse.
Yeah. That's why I'm confused.
If there were other conditions, I don't remember them. Maybe something to do with not fighting back? Though IIRC, Harry's death in the Battle of Hogwarts buys Love Shield for all of the students.
I don't think it was supposed to be related to the prophecy, and it seems like the situation of parents dying for their children happens ever.
If anyone remembers other details, feel free to correct me.
In canon, the love shield requires more than just not fighting back- the person who dies needs to have a choice between death and life, and to intend to die. (When Harry died in the Battle of Hogwarts, he didn't fight back, made the choice to die earlier, and willingly went to his death.) The love shield only applied to Harry because Lily was explicitly given the choice to step aside and live, and chose not to take it; James' death didn't create a love shield around Lily because Voldemort never gave him the option to live, and so James wasn't able to explicitly choose death.
While canon doesn't really show this, I doubt many other dark lords would have given their victims' defenders a choice between life and death. (Also, IIRC, at the end of canon, the Love Shield still wasn't widely known.)
PS. If the Love Shield does exist in MoR, do you suppose Bellatrix could cast it?
If Love Shields really do work the way Randaly describes, then I think the odds of one being used to protect a Dark Wizard are at least as high as one being to protect someone from him. Scenario: Dark Wizard and Obsessed Minion (e.g. Voldemort and Bella) are cornered by Aurors, who explicitly state that anyone who surrenders will be taken alive, only for the Minion to willfully choose to take a lethal curse for her master.
That's something i don't quite understand. As an evil dark lord, I'd be willing to be cruel and pretend people have a choice. 'Stand aside and I will spare your life' then... Bam. Dead anyway.
I'd be willing to be cruel and pretend people have a choice. 'Stand aside and I will spare your life' then... Bam. Dead anyway.
Day 1: "Hi old chum! How's the weather? That brat kid of yours?"
Day 2: "Hi old chum! How's the weather? That brat kid of yours?"
Day 3: "Hi, old chum! How's the weather? Thabrakedevra!"
... lather, rinse, repeat.
I seem to recall that we have WordOfGod that the Love Shield does not exist in the MoR universe due to its preposterousness (for basically the exact reason you describe). I'm not sure exactly where I think I'm remembering that from, but if the memory is correct, then I suppose it was probably on LW or in the Author's Notes. Anyone remember?
Well, I can mention a theory for the sake of discussion, but it's rather hypothetical.
When it occurred I was assuming that:
Dumbledore as a 'Great Wizard' embodied the virtues Eliezer seems to be emphasizing in the story, including intelligence, hard work, critical thought, and a certain amount of rationality.
Harry's Dark Side is one of Voldemort's Horcruxes or a portion of his soul.
Dumbledore is, at least partly, faking his senility to appear less dangerous to his enemies and make it more difficult for them to predict his action. He's still ready to make difficult decisions when necessary and is a competent leader during war, but feels a great deal of guilt which makes him extremely unwilling to ever escalate any conflicts, preferring passive approaches whenever he isn't forced to fight.
Amelia Bones killed Narcissa Malfoy, and Dumbledore claimed responsibility to protect her and give the Death Eaters the impression he was willing to respond in kind to the killing of non-combatants. He also implied threats towards Draco and/or the children of other Death Eaters, including Hogwarts students. This is also why he tolerates so much bullying at hogwarts, so that those same children will still be present in the event of the leverage being required.
Sirius Black was Mr Hat and Cloak. (Mostly wishful thinking I have to admit.)
Dumbledore really does has a good mental model of Voldemort.
The Canon Love Shield was changed somehow as it didn't fit with the MoR Emphasized Virtues (as I think of them).
Now, to quote.
http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/62/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality
"Yes," said the old wizard, "it is time, Harry Potter." The back straightened, only slightly for the wizard had already been standing straight; but somehow even that small change made the wizard seem a foot taller, and stronger if not younger, formidable though not dangerous, his potency gathered about him like a cowl. In a clear voice, then, he spoke: "This day your war against Voldemort has begun.".... "It is important to understand," said Dumbledore, "that this book is not a realistic depiction of a wizarding war. John Tolkien never fought Voldemort. Your war will not be like the books you have read. Real life is not like stories. Do you understand, Harry?".... "No," said the old wizard's voice. "I do not think so. The Death Eaters learned, toward the end of the war, not to attack the Order's families. And if Voldemort is now acting without his former companions, he still knows that it is I who make the decisions for now, and he knows that I would give him nothing for any threat to your family. I have taught him that I do not give in to blackmail, and so he will not try." Harry turned back then, and saw a coldness on the old wizard's face to match the shift in his voice, Dumbledore's blue eyes grown hard as steel behind the glasses, it didn't match the person but it matched the formal black robes.
Although there isn't much/any direct evidence to base any theory on as far as I know, the suspicions my mind provided was that Godric's Hollow was the culmination of a lot of hard work and planning on Dumbledore's part, probably with the help of James and Lily Potter who may or may not have been capable of developing to the same level as Dumbledore. Since Snape is mentioned as being in the same category as Dumbledore and Quirrell, and I thought that Sirius was Mr. H&C who also seems to be on that level, and the Marauders are mentioned as being very capable, I'm assuming that Lily and James are on a similar level to their friends, or at least, were at roughly the level their friends were ten years ago, with some fluctuation at each skill since they probably had different talents.
The big weak-point that I noticed in my idea was that I don't know whether Dumbledore knew Voldemort had horcruxes or was using 'soul magic' at the time, so I'd consider further speculation a lot less likely to be valid.
One possible scenario is that Dumbledore knew Voldemort was developing Horcruxes, and was working with James and Lily to develop a way to use that against him, or detach his soul from his body while prevent him from reviving quickly in the same manner that the Diary Riddle did in CoS. When he heard about the prophecy from Snape he knew that Voldemort would try to kill the possible candidates and/or make a horcrux with their murders. (Although the latter seems less 'evil' and more 'arrogant symbolism', so unless the list was Quirrel(Mort)'s development after his first horrific failure, I'm not sure how likely it is.) He sent the Longbottoms and Potters into hiding while they developed the trap, then had the Potters switch secret keepers to Peter and used Harry as bait to draw Voldemort in. Whether Dumbledore expected the Horcrux to be lodged in Harry's head I'm not sure, but if he did, it may explain why he sent Harry to live with loving Muggles (and may have primed Minerva to be suspicious about how they treated Harry, and made harry defend on other occasions) in order to compensate for the handicaps of giving Harry a bit of Voldemort, while exploiting the edge of experience it seems to give Harry on some occasions to compensate for the huge experience gap between Voldemort and eleven-year-old Harry. In this scenario Sirius might have good reason to distrust Dumbledore, especially since Dumbledore had to keep quiet about who the real secret keeper was so his involvement in the trap wasn't revealed and he could potentially reuse it later unexpectedly, but would probably have been kept out of Azkaban by Dumbledore with some obligation to him. Dumbledore would have deliberately given Harry a love of Muggles to give him a deep conflict with Voldemort who is very much afraid of muggles, keeping Sirius away from his godson, probably causing some additional tension.
It would be very... consequentialistic of Dumbledore, which doesn't fit completely with his character as I see him, but at the same time by the end of the war 'everyone' had lost someone, people were being flayed alive, and he or his supporters were war criminals. If he thought there was a good chance of survival for Harry, especially, I could see it happening. A variation of this masterminded by Lily and/or James is also possible.
Another is that there was a trap, but it was purely defensive, and the way things turned out was unexpected. The Horcrux could have been part of Voldemort's plan to subvert the prophecy by fulfilling the prophecy, then turning the prophecy child into his pawns. However something interfered, presumably, since while it's possible Harry's politcal power is part of the plan to take over in a less violent manner, and that could be Quirrel's current plan, but the muggles have only gotten more powerful during his absence, and he doesn't appear to have taken his most loyal followers (or made some more in the same way he did Bellatrix) and imperiused some high ranking members of the armed forces and political establishment to start world war three during the inter-war period.
The third one was that either Lily or James managed to cast a killing curse on Voldemort, but it only separated his soul from his body, he wasn't outright killed. Possibly as part of someone's plan, possibly not, that part of his soul ended up in Harry, and the 'current' Voldemort doesn't have access to his memories, so he doesn't know what happened.
I wish it noted I wouldn't have mentioned this unless someone else raised the topic and wanted input...
Dumbledore is, at least partly, faking his senility
Ah. I couldn't figure out where the "is he crazy or isn't he?" subplot was going. Of course he's in the early stages of dementia. Thank you. (And there's another reason Dementors are better used as a symbol for death than for depression: they're named for the gradual death of the mind.)
Of course he's in the early stages of dementia.
Not sure that flies. He doesn't act anything like the early-stage dementia patients I've met personally, and the apparent medical consensus on dementia's behavioral symptoms isn't much closer. He does act a lot like I might expect of someone to trying to project an image of erraticism without any particular knowledge of psychology.
I do like the connection with Dementors, though.
I agree. I'm not suggesting his behaviour resembles that of dementia patients. I don't, in general, try to predict the events of the story by modeling the characters as people, since they're not. The question I'm trying to answer is "What is this doing in the story?" Whether Dumbledore turned out to be fundamentally sane or insane, the outcome wouldn't be surprising. It wouldn't serve any larger purpose. It has no pedagogical value, no bearing on the story's major themes, nothing to justify the deviation from canon. The actual mystery is not whether he's only pretending to be crazy but why the subject keeps coming up.
This is the only satisfactory answer I've seen so far: that he's pretending to be crazy to conceal advancing senility. It's not, I realize, strongly supported by the text, but it is strongly consonant with what I already believe. My model of Eliezer-as-author says that he wouldn't merely symbolize the cognitive decline of aging as a supernatural process ('Dementation') which steals the memories of its victims. I expect him to hammer the point home. And impassioned speeches on the horror of aging will have a lot more weight in the presence of a character undergoing the real thing.
If people are smart in this universe, they cast legilimens on the baby. Perhaps after obtaining some sort of warrant.
Some weeks back I placed a prediction about this subject at http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3237 . Check it out, if you want.
I think you're underestimating how guessable things can be if one pays attention to clues. I can't remember for sure, but I think the possibility was in my mind since I first read the note about how Harry should have noticed his confusion about the story.
The list of evidence I gave in favour of that position in a Hatrack forum discussion back in November 2010 was simply that
a) We're told that Harry should have noticed something off about the story, but he didn't (simplest thing he should have noticed is: how the hell do people know what Voldemort tried to do, if there were no living witnesses)
b) Avada Kedavra normally leaves no mark on the victim. Whatever was done on Harry left a lightning-shaped scar.
c) Avada Kedavra kills anything with a brain and never rebounds. This time it's supposed to have failed to kill Harry and to have rebounded onto Voldemort.
All of these were well known before chapter 43.
Since then we can add the evidence of:
d) Bellatrix indicated she was given Voldemort's wand before Voldemort went to the Potters' home -- simplest explanation was that Voldemort didn't want his wand taken away by Aurors when his physical form was destroyed, and so he knew his physical form would be destroyed.
e) Lucius Malfoy seemed to believe Voldemort resides inside Harry's body, which is a rather odd conclusion to arrive at, unless he already has reason to suspect Voldemort wasn't attempting to kill Harry.
These pieces of evidence are not in chapter 43 either.
What evidence are you talking about that's in chapter 43?
a) We're told that Harry should have noticed something off about the story, but he didn't (simplest thing he should have noticed is: how the hell do people know what Voldemort tried to do, if there were no living witnesses)
b) Avada Kedavra normally leaves no mark on the victim. Whatever was done on Harry left a lightning-shaped scar.
c) Avada Kedavra kills anything with a brain and never rebounds. This time it's supposed to have failed to kill Harry and to have rebounded onto Voldemort.
Were you aware, at the time you made the prediction, that
I most definitely knew them. I've read the whole series, and even written HP (meta-)fanfic and ficlets in the past.
However in the canon it is NOT implied that the story doesn't make sense. In HPMoR it is strongly implied that it not only doesn't make sense, but also that Harry should have noticed that it doesn't make sense -- therefore the elements that don't make sense are elements Harry had been told of.
In brief:
In canon the story of Voldemort's attack doesn't make sense, but it was meant to make sense.
In HPMoR the story of Voldemort's attack doesn't make sense, and it is not meant to make sense.
I guess I'm too used to fanfics that pick holes in the story in what I perceive as an uncharitable manner (my thoughts usually go something like "in the LCPW, black-box wards that detect and record all magic performed in a house are common knowledge"). But upon reflection, you're right - if there were a reasonable explanation, Harry's failing to be confused wouldn't have been treated as such a big deal in the narration.
Minor nitpick, although Avada Kedavra is used in canon to kill non-humans I don' think t "anything with a brain" is ever specified in canon.
The mock offer he made to Lily is not funny. It's the kind of kick the dog thing authors write when they want to make you dislike the villain. Eliezer is better than that. What made it laughworthy for Voldemort was the delicious irony of Lily offering her life in exchange of a life that would not have been taken to begin with. From this it was clear he knew the whole prophecy and that Snape heard the whole thing. Took me some time to figure out why it's different from canon, though of course that should have been clear too. Snape is no fool. And the outcome of his no-fool-ness has been known by than.
About your list, I think the failed-notice thing in ch 3 is simply the 'strikes directly at the soul' and 'leaving only the burnt hulk of his body' thing. Also I doubt Voldemort would share his plans with Lucius.
But, yeah, plenty of clues.
Quirrellmort does not want to kill Harry. If he ever did, he changed his mind while offscreen.
He doesn't want to kill Harry right now. He may intend to kill Harry at some more convenient point in the future - everything we've seen of Quirrell indicates he plans for the long term.
If we take Hermione at face value on Ch43, he has tried to kill Harry by feeding him to a dementor. Although given the failures his more certain methods have had, it's a big leap to assume that he hasn't thought of taking Harry someplace isolated and setting a blowtorch on him. Extra points for a long torturous death.
he has tried to kill Harry by feeding him to a dementor.
Almost certainly not. Remember, it was Quirrell who drew Flitwick's attention to the dropped wand. It is possible that Quirrell planned for precisely what occurred - Harry temporarily Demented and apparently evil.
it's a big leap to assume that he hasn't thought of taking Harry someplace isolated and setting a blowtorch on him.
Why do people keep assuming Quirrell thinks of Harry as an enemy?
He drew attention to the wand after Hermione committed herself to going to the cage. Maybe he didn't have to, but that's the sort of cleverness I expect from him. It tricked you, after all.
Why do people keep assuming Quirrell thinks of Harry as an enemy?
I can't speak for people, but Harry is Voldemort's enemy in canon. Until I see some extraordinary evidence to the contrary, I'm going to assume that hasn't changed.
He drew attention to the wand after Hermione committed herself to going to the cage.
...How did I not notice this?!
Quirrellmort seems altogether too clever an individual to not have noticed by now that Harry is a Horcrux for him. Which means that he'd want very much to rectify that situation before killing Harry. It'd be a self-destructive act to allow that to happen.
Now, a protege -- one who knew that killing his mentor would be killing himself? -- priceless.
Do we know that Harry is a horcrux in HPMoR? I'd assign a much lower probability to Quirrelmort making him one by accident than I would for the original Voldemort.
Conversely, I'd assign a much higher probability of MoR!Quirrell making him one on purpose than canon!Voldemort.
I'm not sure I understand what you're asking. Are you asking if we know that Professor Quirrel is Voldemort? Ryvrmre unf nssvezrq gung gung'f gur pnfr. Vs lbh'er nfxvat fbzrguvat ryfr gura V'ir zvfhaqrefgbbq gur dhrfgvba.
(rot13'ed per request.)
Ah...
You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).
ROT13: Vg jnf znqr pyrne va gur nhgube'f abgrf gung Dhveeryy vf Ibyqrzbeg, nsgre Ryvrmre jnf naablrq gung crbcyr qvqa'g frrz gb erpbtavmr gung Dhveeryy jnf fhccbfrq gb or rivy. Vg jnf cbvagrq bhg gb uvz gung gur fgbel vf zhpu orggre vs lbh qba'g xabj gung nurnq bs gvzr, fb ur ergenpgrq gung fgngrzrag naq erfbyirq abg gb rkcyvpvgyl zragvba vg orsber vgf gvzr; vg vf abj pbafvqrerq n fcbvyre.
So the solution for Desrtopa is either ROT13 the above, or remove any mention you may or may not have made that Eliezer may or may not have confirmed or denied something.
Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line...
(black robes, falling)
...blood spills out in liters, and someone screams a word.
There aren't many spells notable for causing prodigious bleeding. In fact, I can only think of one - and one person who could cast it. "Black robes" narrows down the targets.
"Black robes" narrows down the targets.
Specifically, it narrows down the targets to everyone other than uniformed Aurors and Dumbledore in an unserious mood.
I don't know if you've noticed, but black robes are the new black.
What spell is that?
If the word being screamed is the spell, then it can't have been the cause of the blood spilling out in liters. Either the spell was in response to the massive blood loss, or the blood was a necessary component of a ritual.
Evidence against it being the Killing Curse:
That said, we don't know what incantation or ritual is involved in making a horcrux. It may very well be blood magic, and use merely the word "Horcrux!"
What spell is that?
malthrin is almost certainly referring to Sectumsempra, a spell invented by Snape in his school years.
(And somewhere in the back of his mind was a small, small note of confusion, a sense of something wrong about that story; and it should have been a part of Harry's art to notice that tiny note, but he was distracted. For it is a sad rule that whenever you are most in need of your art as a rationalist, that is when you are most likely to forget it.)
Why does the wizarding world believe Voldemort used the Killing Curse on Harry? Whether or not the Love Shield exists in MoR, I doubt most wizards had an >epsilon prior for the Killing Curse resulting in a scarred but otherwise unharmed target, a dead and burned spellcaster, and a destroyed building. There were no surviving witnesses except Baby Harry. Where did that version of events come from?
If I was Joe Random Wizard and heard that evidence without names attached, I would naively hypothesize: Dark Wizard shows up at house, encounters mother + father + their allies. Battle ensues. Parents and Dark Wizard are slain. House is destroyed and baby is hit by debris. There is one obvious question - why the allies didn't take the baby with them - but any answer to that is more plausible than "There were no allies; the most reliable curse in the world backfired on its most experienced practitioner."
Not that the "reflected curse" story was hard to sell. People are great at not asking the next question when they want to believe.
We have some additional information about the events of that evening:
What really happened at Godric's Hollow?
PS. If the Love Shield does exist in MoR, do you suppose Bellatrix could cast it?