As Plan A was coming together, I made this diagram to explain to the team why Total Research Transparency seemed so important to me, and why transparency more broadly did. For example, it's very important for preventing concentration of power. (Explanation below)
First, what's going on? The green boxes are the goals we are trying to achieve, and the blue boxes are the main interventions we are recommending. (As the scenario makes clear, there are more interventions and goals besides these, but the diagram is complicated enough as it is, so they won't be mentioned here.) The overall point of the diagram is to show how these two interventions lead to various effects which then lead to better prospects for achieving the two goals.
Let's start with the goal of preventing concentration of power.
In today's world, power is said to flow from the barrel of a gun, or sometimes from money, or sometimes from votes. If superintelligent AIs are created, and transform the economy, and are integrated into the military, etc. then power will flow from control over the AIs. The AIs will sometimes be taking orders from humans, but also often doing lots of autonomous actions in service of goals and values chosen by humans. (Well, assuming we don't have loss-of-control.) Who do they take orders from? Who chooses their goals/values?
I think that by default, for example in Plan D / C / B worlds, power will concentrate immensely for reasons described in AI 2027: One or more giant AI companies will pull ahead of the rest thanks to recursive self-improvement; their giant army of superintelligent AIs will start taking jobs & lobbying the government; they might end up puppetting the government, OR the government might wake up fast enough and seize control of the AI companies in one way or another, in which case the executive will have an effective monopoly on all the world’s smartest AIs.
I think it's generally better, for preventing extreme concentration of power, if there are more AI co