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khafra comments on Rationality: Appreciating Cognitive Algorithms - Less Wrong

37 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 06 October 2012 09:59AM

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Comment author: khafra 17 October 2012 12:09:41PM -1 points [-]

Yes; to count everything that can occur when you flip an actual, physical coin, you must first invent the universe. It could also be swallowed by a passing bird, which then blunders into a metal foundry and is built into a new space probe, never landing at all. As a human, you just happen to count a huge number of outcomes together under "heads," a huge number of outcomes together under "tails," and a somewhat smaller number of outcomes together under "edge."

Comment author: wedrifid 17 October 2012 12:26:39PM 1 point [-]

Yes; to count everything that can occur when you flip an actual, physical coin, you must first invent the universe.

In fact, it may be more than merely our universe. The probability assignment actually incorporates doubt about what the precise details of the physics of our universe are. So you may need to invent Kolmogorov complexity and Tegmark's Ultimate Ensemble before you get to the serious counting.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 18 October 2012 05:33:26AM 0 points [-]

Even that isn't enough since it doesn't incorporate our uncertainty about mathematics.

Comment author: Kindly 17 October 2012 02:41:18PM 0 points [-]

When I flip a coin, I count some outcomes under "heads", some outcomes under "tails", and everything else I ignore and demand we flip the coin again.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 18 October 2012 05:32:23AM 0 points [-]

The problem is that "everything" contains infinitely many possibilities, so putting the number of possibilities in the denominator to calculate the probability doesn't work.