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Stuart_Armstrong comments on JFK was not assassinated: prior probability zero events - Less Wrong

20 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 27 April 2016 11:47AM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 29 April 2016 04:49:13PM 1 point [-]

But if the probability ever goes to zero, it stays there.

Comment author: Lumifer 29 April 2016 07:00:36PM *  1 point [-]

Some people say that zero is not a probability :-)

But yes, if you have completely ruled out Z as impossible, you will not consider it any more and it will be discarded forever.

Unless the agent can backtrack and undo the inference chain to fix its mistakes (which is how humans operate and which would be a highly useful feature for a fallible Bayesian agent, in particular one which cannot guarantee that the list of priors it is considering is complete).