I read the start of Kirsch's article here since I'm slightly interested in vaccine skepticism and have never dug into it before. (I'm not sure if this is the article that Bret is gushing about.)
The first claim in the article is that there are many more deaths reported by VAERS. I ignored this because without some other context it seemed unsurprising and uninformative that VAERS is used more for the covid vaccine than for the flu vaccine (and the absolute numbers of deaths reported are negligible given the number of people who have taken the vaccine). The inference of "at least 20,000 deaths due to the vaccine" looks like it's probably bullshit but it would take a few minutes to establish that and so I moved on.
The next claim about harms was "82% miscarriage rate in first 20 weeks", which links here. But this number seems to be computed as "Amongst pregnancies that ended, how many were miscarriages?" The table was published in April 21 about people who were vaccinated December 14 - February 28, and it looks like there shouldn't have bee enough time for anyone to have a healthy live birth if they were vaccinated in the first 20 weeks.
The authors of the letter-to-the-editor acknowledg...
As others have said, I strongly dislike posting of 3 hour videos without any timemark or summary of the main points. This is making the community do the work of extracting the information; on top of that people will not watch most (or any) of the video before commenting, so discussion quality will be low.
To not be completely negative, I watched the section on "Vaccine suffers censored" (there are time marks in the description on youtube) where all three of them claim explicitly that there is no monitoring. This is clearly inaccurate, for example we know that Israel has recently reported that myocarditis might be occurring more often than expected in young men. In addition, I know that Germany has the SafeVac app to make it easier for people to report side effects after vaccination.
there are time marks in the description on youtube
As timestamps go, I found these ones to be well-made and more useful than the usual:
00:00 Introductions
02:20 This must be discussed
03:13 Will herd immunity be reached?
07:58 Spike protein is very dangerous
13:45 FDA knew it could be toxic if it didn't stay stuck
18:09 Vaccine sufferers censored
23:26 Reviewing the FDA data package
26:41 Corners were cut
27:52 Steve looking at VAERS
32:37 Robert's friends at the FDA and the emergency use authorisation
37:38 Risk benefit and quality life years
40:18 Alternative to vaccines
44:19 Mask wearing RCT
45:28 Three anomalies around vaccines
46:05 Fluvoxamine trials
51:00 Two million dollar offer and the NIH
52:13 Robert's view of the NIH
53:00 Regulatory capture
54:41 Fauci's emails
56:30 Merck on Ivermectin
59:24 Emergent phenomenon
01:01:42 Vaccine deaths
01:03:24 Tess Lawrie's vaccine safety data
01:04:43 Difference between the gene therapy vaccines
01:06:40 Self reported deaths from vaccines
01:09:18 Adverse reactions
01:17:12 Robert on V-safe database
01:19:30 Social media censorship
01:22:20 Steve's experience with denial
01:24:17 Two teams
01:28:20 "Don't come back until your lips are blue"
01:30...
Don't know yet. I've watched about half so far. My first impressions are similar to DPiepgrass.
Typical conspiracy theorists are fairly easy to recognize. They seem to take the axiom that everything happens on purpose. They don't notice the inconsistencies in their own models, and their bald assertions often don't stand up to easy verification, if you bother to check.
These are not crazy conspiracy-theory types. (That doesn't make them right.) They understand scientific thinking, are using the biology vocabulary correctly, and are trying to use gears-level models. They understand how the vaccines work, and what might go wrong. They accept the possibility that this isn't happening on purpose, but is just a bad outcome of incentives, something we already believe happens.
Kirsch (blue shirt guy) seems less careful than the other two, and may or may not be a crackpot. This doesn't necessarily make his concerns wrong. We should still try to verify their claims. Are these guys who they say they are? Do they have valid credentials? Does the spike protein break off so it could have systemic effects? How toxic is it? The vaccine might still win a cost-benefit analysis.
I've watched IDW videos b...
Kirsch (blue shirt guy) seems less careful than the other two, and may or may not be a crackpot.
We should still try to verify their claims. Are these guys who they say they are? Do they have valid credentials?
Without having watched the video my prior before this conversation from what Steve Kirsch did before:
Steve Kirsch was listening to Corona virus experts (experts that studied Corona viruses before the pandemic) and organizing funding clinical trials for the drugs those experts considered promising (and invested significant personal money into it). He's one of the few people who scored A+ in 2020 at fighting COVID-19 by being sensible.
When we discuss whether he's a crackpot we should also discuss whether all those people in power who initially said masks don't work listening to think tanks instead of the most qualified experts should be considered crackpots. I think the case for Fauci being a crackpot is a lot better then for Kirsch.
Robert Malone wrote https://www.pnas.org/content/86/16/6077 which is a paper about using mRNA from 3 decades ago. When it comes to inventing mRNA vaccines there were a lot of steps on the way and it's unclear whether any single person should be considered "The Inventor" but he seemed to played part in it.
While I agree that there is insufficient attention paid to ivermectin as a possible treatment in Western nations, I have seen far too much shoddy and conflicting data in the studies that are brought forward proposing it as prophylaxis and think the hype is a spiral that has amplified nonsense into prominence. People LOVE the idea of a panacea. While there is quite possibly something interesting going on there it has been hyped to the moon and back in a way it should not be.
The animal data I have seen that I trust the most (since it avoids many of the pitfalls of observational trials, and few people are doing randomized trials that are actually good and not shoddy as hell after chloroquine sucked all the oxygen out of the room) suggests there could be something there, but not in a way that would block epidemics. Animals that are infected and then dosed have no difference in viral levels but recover their sense of smell significantly faster and when you take tissue samples the levels of inflammatory and tissue-destroying signaling molecules are lower while the ones that are more classically associated with antiviral responses are higher. Leans me towards the i...
Could you make a digest of their main points? That might help get everybody on the same page to start the discussion.
Edit: Ok, TBH, I just don't feel like watching a 3-hour long video ATM. But others might prefer to have the original debate in full rather than a digest.
Edit 2: Thanks for listing noteworthy points. I'm in the process of passively listening to the video bit by bit.
So, I decided to head on over to OpenVAERS, do some searches and look at some reports. Here are the number of results for a few queries for deaths in 2021:
5997 results in 2021 (all vaccines)
5869 results in 2021 with Vax Name "covid19"
3607 results in 2021 for 65+ (all vaccines)
3543 results in 2021 for 65+ with Vax Name "covid19"
1673 results in 2021 for 65+ with Vax Name "moderna"
1691 results in 2021 for 65+ with Vax Name "pfizer"
165 results in 2021 for 65+ with Vax Name "janssen" (Johnson & Johnson)
1061 results in 2021 for <65 (all vaccines)
1023 results in 2021 for <65 with Vax Name "covid19"
406 results in 2021 for <65 with Vax Name "pfizer"
458 results in 2021 for <65 with Vax Name "moderna"
214 results in 2021 for <45 with Vax Name "covid19"
101 results in 2021 for <35 with Vax Name "covid19"
37 results in 2021 for <25 with Vax Name "covid19"
Edit: for comparison, the average annual death rate in the United States in 2018 and 2019 was 719 per 100,000 or 0.719%. Since the population is about 328 million, the expected number of deaths in a normal year is about 2,358,000, and in a typical week, 45,228. Now, 51.56% of the population has received at least one vaccin...
The whole video is painful to watch, it gets more bearable after the 2:11 mark when Kirsch (the blue shirt guy) slows a bit down.
The following is a recap of what I've understood them saying and some unpacking. I'm not educated in anything medical and still have a bunch of open question. If you spot any error or know the answer to these questions please let me know.
They seem to be making 3 main points:
Bret Weinstein's idea to solve the issue is to find some deep-pocketed sense-making individual or set of people who can buy the pharmaceutical companies out. He thinks that would kill the economi...
Aaaand the video's gone.
Edit: Available at either
https://odysee.com/@GatheringOfEagles:9/how-to-save-the-world-ivermectin:b
This is an interview with Edward Mills, who is running trials on repurposed drugs.
https://www.halifaxexaminer.ca/featured/whats-the-deal-with-ivermectin-and-covid/
He seems more measured in his assessment of Ivermectin. Ultimately, he thinks there will be a small positive treatment effect, but not one that merits calling it a "miracle drug."
Contrast that with Bret Weinstein or Pierre Kory, who think this will end the pandemic.
From another comment:
When we discuss whether he's a crackpot we should also discuss whether all those people in power who initially said masks don't work listening to think tanks instead of the most qualified experts should be considered crackpots. I think the case for Fauci being a crackpot is a lot better then for Kirsch.
From You:
Don't extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence? They seem to think that they themselves having seen some evidence is enough, so there's little need to present it to their audience.
They seem to be advocating for the ty...
One of the Ivermectin-supporting studies included in Lawrie's metastudy has been retracted due to glaring issues. This study (Elgazzar et al 2020) was the 5th largest study on Ivermectin by sample size (N=200) listed in the Bryant & Lawrie metastudy. Based on Figure 3 it looks like Elgazzar et al was one of only two studies that favored ivermectin without including the no-benefit line in the confidence interval.
Meanwhile, 6 other studies appeared to favor ivermectin but included the no-benefit line in their confidence interval, 1 study favored the...
- 28:47 "Nobody knows about [the VAERS system] and people aren't reporting" and "we've had reports reversed without the doctor's consent"
I don't buy this. I got a hand out about the VAERS system, created and account and reported everything that happened (and I did have weird side effects).
I am a big, long time fan of Bret Weinstein, was impressed by the stoicism and apparent knowledge of Malone, and alarmed at the extreme claims Kirsch made. I've been following the ivermectin story over the past month or so, listening also to Dr John Campbell's seemingly sober and impartial analysis. I'd reached the point where I believed there was financially motivated suppression of ivermectin research, believed that it likely had generic antiviral properties (via "blocking" the ACE2 receptor), believed that adverse reactions to mRNA vaccines were under-r...
I've watched the whole thing now, at 2x speed. We've also got your summary with time index.
There are a lot of points in there, and we could try to verify each one. Anything particularly salient that you'd like us to focus on first?
To call the vaccines harmful on net, we have to compare that to the alternatives. Even if we accept (for the sake of argument) that the vaccine is toxic, presumably an actual infection has the potential to be much worse, since it produces the same spike protein. In my view, a lot of this case hinges on the availability of an effe...
I stumbled across the Better Skeptics "Ground Truth Challenge" which offered prize money for identifying false statements in this and three other related podcasts, judged by three referees including our own ciphergoth.
Results are here.
Yuri Deigin recently did a point-by-point takedown on Rebel Wisdom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwzfnZfo-rU
Bret's thesis rests on two pillars: the mRNA vaccines are dangerous and Ivermectin is a safer alternative. If either of these aren't true, then vaccination is the better option.
According to Yuri, basically all of the important claims are false. Neither pillar holds. The case on Dark Horse for the dangers of the vaccine and the safety and efficacy of Ivermectin is misleading at best. It requires cherry-picking studies of poor quality, and then misr...
Sam Harris [who was also counted in the IDW originally] responded to this (as well as vaccine hesitancy in general) in a recent podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jQfNzk_CFk
Sam's main point seems to be that even if we steelman the claims against the mRNA vaccines, it's still a clear-cut choice when you do a cost-benefit analysis because the risks from COVID are so much higher than from (mRNA) vaccines. But the vaccines are still obviously safe and effective and maybe Bret is confused. Also, Sam still considers Bret a friend.
DarkHorse Podcast reply: h...
The claim that the concentration of LNP (lipid nanoparticles) is highest in the ovaries after 48 hours appears to be not only false, but a "pants on fire" kind of lie: the linked source shows the concentration as being 259 times higher at the injection site, and 170 times higher in the liver.
The chart showing the concentration as being highest in the ovaries simply leaves out the data for the injection site, for the liver, and for the spleen (which has over 10x higher concentration than the ovaries).
Edit: I had been investigating the claim about ovaries on...
"And if a vaccine is causing these deaths, where are the lawuits?"
Vaccine manufacturers are actually exempt from such lawsuits.
'If this were true, where are the lawsuits against the vaccine makers?'
Surely they've been shielded from liability so there won't be any.
I am surprised that nobody linked to Scott Alexander on ivermectin: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted (plus: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/higlights-from-the-comments-on-ivermectin?s=r). For me it more or less settles the subject - the most probable hypothesis is ivermectin de-warms people and it has a huge positive outcome on peoples health when people have warms (independently from covid - or maybe even dependently - because the warms decrease immune response fighting the virus) and unfortunately in many p...
I have just read a short blog entry by Steve Kirsch and my BS detectors went into overdrive. That is what put me on the search to find this particular piece. At the first mention of 'cover-up' or any other kind of conspiracy to keep 'unwanted' information from the public you had better start washing off the shoe that stepped in it. Also, I keep seeing VAERS 'data' being thrown around. That so-called 'data' is of very limited usefulness because people can report anything without any cause-and-effect evidence and thus separating signal from common background noise is very difficult.
Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we find >95% of the claims on this video to be not just accurate, but peer reviewed.
Also, you describe Steve Kirsch as "red-tribey" - he is in fact a classic liberal, a quick public records search revealed that he gave the maximum donations to Obama, Hillary, and even Biden in 2020 (but not to any Republicans). Recently he has expressed extreme disappointed in the Democratic party (as have I), but spend any amount of time reading his stuff and you will find him to be pretty left leaning, but bipartisan and open ...
One month ago I clumsily tried to persuade my 74-year-old father that Tucker Carlson is probably wrong about Covid vaccines killing 3000 people, and if not, my father should get the vaccine anyway because he is in a high-risk group.
Well, move over lab-leak discussion, because this video is a tad more explosive: it alleges an ongoing and almost systematic censorship of information about vaccine side-effects, and it manages to do so in a way that fails to trip my BS detectors. While the LessWrong community isn't known for its expertise in vaccine science and epidemiology, it's usually pretty good about separating the true from the false, so here I am to ask for your comments. While the video is extremely long, the most controversial claims come near the beginning.
It's hosted by Bret Weinstein who (says Wikipedia) 'came to national attention during the 2017 Evergreen State College protests' and 'is among the people referred to collectively as the "intellectual dark web"'. The video description says Robert Malone is "the inventor of mRNA Vaccine technology"; he doesn't have a Wikipedia page, but he is mentioned on the page about mRNA vaccines as having 'developed a high-efficiency in-vitro and in-vivo RNA transfection system using cationic liposomes, which were used "to directly introduce RNA into whole tissues and embryos", as well as various cells types' in 1989. Finally there's Steve Kirsch, a red-tribey-sounding serial entrepreneur who mostly does tech firms but has been "researching adverse reactions to COVID vaccines". Steve frequently interrupts the other two, but at least seems very knowledgeable and well-connected (not to mention wealthy).
At first I was going to make this a 'question', but there's a lot to unpack and I think it could generate a lot of discussion, so I made it a 'post' instead.
Summary of the video's main points & discussions:
Edit: After reviewing everything, I'm seeing some signs of BS, mainly centered around Steve, who takes some rather extreme interpretations as fact (the summary above omits Steve's many interjections demonstrating this). One example is that he acts like it's crazy that everybody hasn't already accepted the greatness of ivermectin, even though the best evidence is said to be in a paper that hasn't been published yet. Also, his May 25 article (linked twice above already) has even more extreme claims than this video. And yet, Bret thinks Steve's article is great (assuming the URL at 2:17:34 is the one he gushed about in the beginning). While Dr. Malone occasionally disagrees, it's rare; for the most part he explicitly agrees, nods, or expresses no skepticism. So my main point of concern is that the three of them are very credulous about the strongest claims, and don't take seriously the possibility that they could be wrong. Plus, they show no interest in possible differences between the vaccines. Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are both mRNA-based, but this hardly guarantees the same risks for both. But they speak about all vaccines (4 brands in 2 categories) as a singular entity, "the vaccine".
As I noted a month ago, it is required to report deaths after vaccine administration to VAERS, so if it's more common to give a Covid vaccine to elderly and ill patients than it was to give seasonal flu vaccines to elderly and ill patients, this could explain the VAERS data. If the reporting requirement is new or more publicized, that could help explain it too. And if a vaccine is causing these deaths, where are the lawuits? Alleging "the" vaccine has killed tens of thousands of people, with no sign of having considered any alternative hypotheses, is a big red flag and if Steve proves to be incorrect, his efforts will probably cause deaths, because surely there are many elderly people like my parents who have chosen to stay unvaccinated due to messages like this. If Steve is correct, it is still important to do a cost-benefit analysis of vaccination vs no vaccination, particularly in regard to high-risk groups like my parents, and Steve did not attempt to do that either in the video or on his blog.
Also important is how little evidence is directly presented; mostly it's just alluded to. Don't extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence? They seem to think that they themselves having seen some evidence is enough, so there's little need to present it to their audience. Since the number of views has topped 350,000, I encourage interested people to see if they can debunk, support or clarify some of these claims. While I suspect the claims about vaccine deaths are overstated (perhaps dramatically), I think there's a lot of common-sense reasoning in this video that will stand the test of time.
The video was deleted for 'Violating YouTube's Terms of Service'. See below for alternate links.
P.S. Here are the results of Canada's voluntary Covid-19 vaccine safety survey. It would be nice if they offered more detail on the more major side-effects, but...