The poverty may be partly illusory. It sounds like a lot of their economy is not money-mediated (inside the family or work done for social recognition). This means that their wealth is underreported by money-based statistics like median income. A common risk when comparing differently structured societies.
I think that's probably correct. According to rumors I hear, the leadership of the community structures everything so that the rank and file will be poor and therefore entitled to the maximum amount of public assistance.
For example, suppose you teach 30 hours a week at the local religious school. In a free market, you might get paid $25k a year for this work and spend $10,000 a year to rent your nearby apartment. But if it's the same organization which runs the religious school and is also your landlord, you can have an arrangement with a nod and a wink in which you get paid only $15k a year and pay only $4k a year in rent for your apartment.
That way, you show much less income for purposes of taxes and government benefits. Technically this is fraud since you really should be reporting your effective rent subsidy as income. However it would be really difficult for the authorities to actually prove this is what is going on. Especially if all the important communications involved are in Yiddish.
Anyway, I don't know if this is what happens in KJ but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they have a million little scams like this going on.
Especially if all the important communications involved are in Yiddish.
The communications don't even need to be spoken. This is exactly the kind of thing Robin Hanson keeps telling us our brains are built for.
Am I misreading you, or are you actually comparing the living standards of Kiryas Joel with a Malthusian equilibrium?!
These people are as far from a Malthusian bare-subsistence situation as the regular developed world middle classes. The only essential difference is that their culture has solved the problem of collective action when it comes to various burdensome signaling arms races that are de rigueur in the mainstream society, so they don't bother to keep up with those. (That said, I don't know how onerous their own peculiar signaling arms races are. It does seem to me like they have it better, but maybe it's just that the grass looks greener on the other side.)
There is of course the issue that they seem to live off rent-seeking to a large degree. However, nowadays the same can be said for a considerable proportion (arguably a majority) of high-status people. The Kiryas Joel folks at least mind their own business and do nothing destructive, unlike so many prestigious rent-seekers who enjoy public accolades.
Am I misreading you, or are you actually comparing the living standards of Kiryas Joel with a Malthusian equilibrium?!
Kiryas Joel is, by definition, not in a Malthusian equilibrium because their population is expanding.*
However, they are far closer to Hanson's future Malthusian equilibrium than your average American community; probably they are the closest**. And so they are interesting from the utilitarian welfare point of view.
I'm not sure you understand Malthusian economics very well. A 'subsistence wage' is an arbitrary culturally set wage anywhere above whatever amount is required to not starve to death. Subsistence wages can vary dramatically, and can even fall over time. (Gregory Clark in Farewell to Alms points out that some African countries are actually worse off in per-capita wealth than they were millennia ago because modern medicine let their subsistence wage fall even further.) If I may quote one of the experts, David Ricardo, on what a subsistence wage is:
...It is not to be understood that the natural price of labor, estimated even in food and necessaries, is absolutely fixed and constant. It varies at different times in the same country, and very materially differ
However, they are far closer to Hanson's future Malthusian equilibrium than your average American community; probably they are the closest**. And so they are interesting from the utilitarian welfare point of view.
Looking for a community in modern-day U.S. that is the closest to a Malthusian equilibrium is kind of like looking at the members of a billionaire country club and asking whose circumstances are closest to those of a homeless beggar. Technically, the question might have a well-defined answer, but it won't give you any insight into the life of actual beggars.
Hell, I've lived in circumstances that make Kiryas Joel look like a billionaire country club in comparison, and it would be delusional for me to draw conclusions about Malthusian life based on my experiences.
I'm not sure you understand Malthusian economics very well. A 'subsistence wage' is an arbitrary culturally set wage anywhere above whatever amount is required to not starve to death.
I understand that. (In fact, the insight goes back even before Ricardo and Malthus, at least back to Adam Smith's concept of "the lowest [wage] rate which is consistent with common humanity.")
However, this wage is &q...
Ever shopped for an esrog?
I did write that I don't know how burdensome their own peculiar signaling competitions are in comparison. The important point is that a lot of what seems like poverty and low living standards in the lives of these people is not actual deprivation, but a genuine lack of incentive to acquire the things in question, since they are not locked in the signaling arms race that motivates acquiring them in the mainstream. When it comes to things they care about, they're not any worse off than the regular middle classes.
The middle class has expensive weddings and vacations, but primarily is enslaved to owned cars/houses or educations that merely fail to be fully worth their opportunity cost.
I see quite a bit more stuff among the regular middle classes that looks like pure signaling waste, though you're clearly more knowledgeable how this compares with the analogous phenomena among orthodox Jews.
However, one very important issue you're not taking into account is that the primary objective that drives the North American middle classes to work their asses off is the need to afford living in an expensive enough neighborhood to insulate oneself and one's family from the underclass. (Clearly, various signaling and purely instrumental goals are entangled here.) With some luck and creativity, you can skimp on all kinds of signaling consumerism, but with this issue there's no joking, and it keeps imposing a horrible threat should you ever slack off. The lack of this pressure seems to me like a major point in favor of life in a deeply traditionalist community, so I think it counts in favor of the KJ setup.
...Nonetheless, the body of ordinances, injunctions, and so forth that these people are expected to
My wording wasn't very clear here -- I didn't mean to compare middle-class Americans with ultra-Ortodox communities specifically, but to make a more general point about how people can consider themselves very free and really feel that way, even though things may look very different from an outside perspective.
Generally speaking, people feel unfree when they're suddenly constrained from doing something that they're used to and care about, or when constraints lower their status. In contrast, constraints that are ingrained in a culture are often not even noticed consciously by its people, or they are seen as self-evidently reasonable and necessary, since people are used to living under them, and are also at peace with the existing status hierarchy. However, this won't seem so to an outsider who is used to a different way of life and who perhaps derives status in his own community from some freedoms that are absent in their culture. Similarly, the level of discipline and regimentation (in both scope and intensity) is perceived subjectively depending on what one is used to.
So, ultimately, it depends on how you choose to measure freedom. In some extreme cases, it may be that one societ...
Kiryas Joel functions to some extent in a model much like the charedim in Israel, relying on the outside world to provide necessary economic infrastructure and support. The most relevant example paragraphs in that article are:
.Because the community typically votes as a bloc, it wields disproportionate political influence, which enables it to meet those challenges creatively. A luxurious 60-bed postnatal maternal care center was built with $10 million in state and federal grants
and
Most children attend religious schools, but transportation and textbooks are publicly financed. Several hundred handicapped students are educated by the village’s own public school district, which, because virtually all the students are poor and disabled, is eligible for sizable state and federal government grants.
I'm not sure their happiness is terribly relevant, even if they are happy, it is a deeply unsustainable situation.
I'm not sure that this is at all similar to Hanson's hypothetical. In his hypothetical the uploads don't have any rights or recourse. Here the people have political pull. The situation for uploads could be much worse.
I like to look at this as a vindication of efficient markets. As the Times reporter shrewdly remarks, democracy offers profit opportunities for groups that can coordinate to form disciplined voting blocks. The coordination problem here is very difficult, but we nevertheless see an example of a group that has solved it with amazing success, so that the profit opportunities are not left unexploited despite the collective action problem!
As for the unsustainability, well, a whole lot of high-status people live off rent-seeking these days, except that it tends to be couched in elaborate rationalizations and smug moralizing. The Kiryas Joel folks are just specializing in a form of rent-seeking where their culture gives them a strong competitive advantage (since it solves the coordination problem). If that source of income dried up, I have no doubt that they'd be smart and enterprising enough to come up with something else -- which might well be some productive work, as it probably would be even nowadays in a society where rent-seeking is harder and less lucrative.
(Besides, as the article suggests, the lack of social pathologies in their community means that they might not be such devourers of public funds after all, and they do some productive work, so the net balance isn't that clear.)
. The Kiryas Joel folks are just specializing in a form of rent-seeking where their culture gives them a strong competitive advantage (since it solves the coordination problem). If that source of income dried up, I have no doubt that they'd be smart and enterprising enough to come up with something else -- which might well be some productive work, as it probably would be even nowadays in a society where rent-seeking is harder and less lucrative.
I don't think we're seeing anything that smart going on here. They are essentially just adopting that the MO the charedim use in Israel to the United States.
(Besides, as the article suggests, the lack of social pathologies in their community means that they might not be such devourers of public funds after all, and they do some productive work, so the net balance isn't that clear.)
The social pathology is there, it just is getting covered up and not addressed. Among the ultra-Orthodox there are terrible stigmas associated with mental illness for example. Similarly, spousal abuse is just not discussed. They try to cover up these issues since they can hurt status in the community and ruin the chances for arranged marriages. The evidence...
Also, do you think these ultra-Orthodox groups would not be able to adapt to participation in the regular economy if their sources of government support dried up? I have the impression that they would be able to adapt very well, and are presently just taking advantage of their exceptionally favorable position to take advantage of government support. However, I'm sure you know more about them than I do, so I'd be curious to hear what you think.
The short answer to this is I don't know. Over the last hundred years the ultra-orthodox have adopted a set of attitudes that has little in the way of historical precursors. Those attitudes include 1) a much more negative attitude towards secular schooling than existed previously and 2) an attitude that any line of work other than constant study of religious texts is bad 3) a strong aversion to interacting with people outside their own groups, even for business purposes. This makes it very difficult for them to do much other than this sort of rent-seeking behavior. However, in the other direction the more moderate end of the charedim have had some success getting jobs. A fair number are now doing work in IT or some actuarial jobs that mini...
Do you maybe know of some good book that has a comprehensive explanation of these divisions, preferably with reference to the historical context of their development, and also their ancestral geographic origins?
Not really. As far as I'm aware most of the history books on this sort of thing are either books which focus on a specific group, or are books about the history of Jews from a very long time, and thus don't have as much focus on the last few hundred years when the modern divisions have arose. I've been told that Hayim Ben-Sasson's "A History of the Jewish People" is in general a good book written from a modern, scholarly perspective. It has a section on the modern era which should be good. I haven't read it myself though. I'm not aware of any book that focuses specifically on the chassidim which is what one would probably want. I suspect such books exist, but you can do a Google search as easily as I can, and I'm not going to be able to evaluate the books in any useful way.
However, the main divisions aren't that complicated to summarize, and one doesn't need much detail to have the context to follow things like New York Times articles about them. Data dump fol...
As for the attitude towards the State of Israel, my understanding is that religious Jews generally support it, except for an ultra-Orthodox fringe who believe that Zionism is an irreverent mockery...
This is a good (even the best) first step in the process of going from confusion to knowledge, but it's mostly wrong, somewhat less enlightening than replacing the concept of a banana with the concept of molecules, while ignoring atoms and quarks.
"Support [Israel]" doesn't mean only one thing without more context, even in most people's minds, any more than "like people" would if I asked if you "like people". About half the self-identifying Orthodox Jews in Israel and far fewer than that in America do not find any religious justification or basis for the modern state of Israel and are the Chareidim. This includes almost all Chasidim. Worse than not finding warrant for it, there is Talmudic justification for opposing its creation, while reactions to finding it created predictably differ.
The most noticeable members of this group are the dozen or hundred or so portion of the Neturei Karta who spend a lot of time and effort seeking to replace the state with a...
Genuinely nice people who still prevent people who, like me and (presumably) you, are cognitively atypical, from finding similar people across the world to socialize with.
and the thousand other awesome things about the world we have created for ourselves.
and the thousand other awesome things about the world we will create.
I don't want to tile the world with tiny genuinely nice people.
Consider various other groups that are presently in the process of demographic and migratory expansion, and whose typical members are similarly different from you, but whom it is low-status to rail against (and apt to invoke accusations of bigotry and extremism), unlike when it comes to fringe Christian groups. Does contemplating them fill you with similar fear and hostility?
So when you catch yourself feeling fear and hostility towards some demographically expanding group that is not a fringe Christian group, so that in polite society it would be seen as disreputable and extremist to dislike and fear them, you start with the a priori assumption that it is silly and wrong to fear them and you try to suppress your fear consciously. In contrast, when it comes to demographically expanding fringe Christian groups, you start with the a priori assumption that it is eminently reasonable to dislike and fear them. And it doesn't seem to you like there might be some slight bias there?
(I tried to come up with a more charitable interpretation of your comment, but this looks like the plain meaning of what you wrote.)
The argument is one of symmetry.
a.These groups are genetically almost identical to me. In the same situation as me, they would behave no worse than me.
b. Most of my cultural differences from these groups are morally insignificant. For instance, I would prefer that they speak my language so that I can more easily understand them, but from an objective perspective it makes just as much sense to demand that I speak their languages.
c. The other differences are memetically weak. Take the example of women's rights. Some developing countries have attitudes towards women's rights worse than any developed country, but they are not worse than past attitudes in developed countries. The same cultural changes that enabled us to free ourselves from these bad memes will enable them to free themselves as well.
Therefore, these people, if given resources, will put them to a use no worse than people from my culture would.
The Amish rejection of modern technology meme appears to me to be: 1, morally significant - leads to badstuff, and 2, memetically strong, having won its founding battle with Post-Enlightenment memes and showing no signs of losing any others.
I do not understand why it is obvious to th...
I sometimes feel like there is a shadowy half-underground group of LWers that is intelligent enough to stay away from bad signalling and has altruistic intentions, but has to deal every now and then with a slight twitch, reading something knowing they can't really state a proper response. It feels like there is almost a court nod when we read and comment each other's posts and hope inferential distance keeps disturbances away. It so tempting some times, it is almost like I just have to say out loud the unspeakable and a few will contact me and I'll be sure.
Other times I'm just afraid I'm sitting in a room having tea with the socoioeconomic Eldrich abominations teasing me with a wicked grin as everyone else moves obliviously to them, asking me if I'm certain that I haven't lost it.
Suppose this is a test, anyone who knows what I'm talking about please PM the right answer.
I sometimes feel like there is a shadowy half-underground group of LWers that is intelligent enough to stay away from bad signalling and has altruistic intentions, but has to deal every now and then with a slight twitch, reading something knowing they can't really state a proper response.
(linked comment) Delusions that are truly widely held and not merely believed to be widely held are far too dangerous to attack. There are sociopolitical Eldritch Abominations that it would serve LW well to stay well clear of and perhaps even pretend they don't exist for the time being.
The next time you feel that way, make yourself another identity, and use it to say the things you wouldn't otherwise. It really is quite liberating. It's very rare for a delusion to really be too strong to attack, especially here; it is only that you fear backlash.
As for the discussion this appeared in, let me get the unpleasant truths out of the way so we can stay meta: Intelligence is mostly heritable! Knowing someone's race conveys nonzero information about their their social status, suitability for jobs, wealth, and criminality! The gender imbalances in many professions are the result of innate differences, not discrimination! When groups with bad values and lower intelligence breed too much, it harms the future! These are all truths that any sufficiently advanced rationalist will recognize. And if you disagree with any of these, please direct your complaints to no one in particular.
Careful; LW doesn't seem to scandalize easily, as this thread hilariously demonstrates as people try to discuss shocking things, and everyone fails to be shocked, so people up the ante by combining cannibalism and pedophilia, and so on, in a positive feedback loop.
Actually, don't be careful. That was a fun thread.
a.These groups are genetically almost identical to me. In the same situation as me, they would behave no worse than me.
Depending on which groups you're talking about this isn't completely obvious.
c. The other differences are memetically weak. Take the example of women's rights. Some developing countries have attitudes towards women's rights worse than any developed country, but they are not worse than past attitudes in developed countries. The same cultural changes that enabled us to free ourselves from these bad memes will enable them to free themselves as well.
I think you're looking only at the superficial memes. It's entirely possible that there are more subtly cultural factors, e.g., belief in progress, openness to new ideas, that are responsible for both our development of modern technology and our adoption of different attitudes toward women. Of course, now that the technology has been invented, they can import it without necessarily importing the memetic baggage.
Also, as Eliezer pointed out here even the most liberal person from the 18th century, say Ben Franklin, if transported to today would be so shocked by all the changes to prevailing morality that he might eve...
[E]ven the most liberal person from the 18th century, say Ben Franklin, if transported to today would be so shocked by all the changes to prevailing morality that he might even conclude that the monarchists were right about man not being fit to govern himself.
Well, that is basically the modern prevailing doctrine, though of course it's never spelled out so bluntly. The contemporary respectable opinion pays lip service to the idea of democracy in the abstract, but as soon as any really important issues are raised, it is considered incontrovertible that policy should be crafted by professional bureaucracies under the gentle and enlightened guidance of accredited experts. In fact, one of the surest paths to being scorned as a low-status extremist or troglodyte is to argue that an expression of popular will should override the decisions favored by the expert/bureaucratic establishment in some particular case.
I don't want to tile the world with tiny genuinely nice people.
Beats the word eventually being tiled with very genuinely not nice people.
The likely outcome of a Malthusian/Darwinian upload scenario isn't many near-subsistence human-like lives, it's something seriously inhuman and probably valueless. The analogy is incredibly weak.
I recently ran into an interesting description of the Ik people in Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies (copy):
..."The Ik are a people of northern Uganda who live at what must surely be the extreme of deprivation and disaster. A largely hunting and gathering people who have in recent times practiced some crop planting, the Ik are not classifiable as a complex society in the sense of Chapter 2. They are, nonetheless, a morbidly fascinating case of collapse in which a former, low level of social complexity has essentially disappeared.
Due to drought and disruption by national boundaries of the traditional cycle of movement, the Ik live in such a food- and water-scarce environment that there is absolutely no advantage to reciprocity and social sharing. The Ik, in consequence, display almost nothing of what could be considered societal organization. They are so highly fragmented that most activities, especially subsistence, are pursued individually. Each Ik will spend days or weeks on his or her own, searching for food and water. Sharing is virtually nonexistent. Two siblings or other kin can live I side-by-side, one dying of starvation and the other well nourished, without the l
I recently became aware of some news stories that shed some additional light on this debate:
Ultra-Orthodox Shun Their Own for Reporting Child Sexual Abuse
Sex abuse victim driven out of shull
Yeshiva U sex abuse extended beyond high school for boys, probe Finds
This is also relevant to the discussion Vladimir_M and and JoshuaZ had about whether or not the community had the ability to control social pathologies better than mainstream society (specifically it supports JoshuaZ's position).
My own view on the overall debate is that it doesn't matter if Kiryas Joel is happy or not. Happiness that comes from having mistaken beliefs isn't valuable. The majority of Ultra-orthodox Jews hold a false belief that they are giving up a normal life in order to serve a supernatural creature. Since the creature they are serving isn't real, their lives are much, much worse than they think they are. An analogous situation might be a person who gains happiness from donating money to help starving refugees, without knowing that the refugees were made up by a con-man who is really lining his own pockets with the donations.
This sex-abuse scandal means that the inhabitants of Kiryas Joel are even worse o...
So, I'm not quite sure what your question has to do with my comment, so I suspect we're talking past one another as far as "bigger pictures" go.
But to answer your question, one possibility is that the person expects to spend the year earning enough extra cash (or learning the skills that they can later use to get a higher-paying job, or whatever) that, having done so, they can afford to spend two years wireheading. That is, they are trading pleasure now for more pleasure later.
Another possibility is that the person is committed to some project (say, generating QALYs for others by buying malaria nets, or reducing existential global risk by researching FAI theory, or nurturing their children) and they expect that they will be more productive on that project if they aren't wireheading, and they value the project sufficiently more than their own pleasure that they prefer to make the additional progress on that project rather than experience a maximally pleasurable year.
There are other possibilities.
Unexpected consequences of the Orthodox growth: Unz points out an apparent massive fall in Jewish academic achievement:
...For example, consider California, second only to New York in the total number of its Jews, and with its Jewish percentage far above the national average. Over the last couple of years, blogger Steve Sailer and some of his commenters have examined the complete 2010 and 2012 NMS semifinalist lists of the 2000 or so top-scoring California high school seniors for ethnicity, and discovered that as few as 4–5 percent of the names seem to be Je
If you're living near Malthusian equilibrium, there's probably no smiling involved. Not even the poorest people on Earth are usually living close to that point. In fact, I'm not really sure any modern humans ever have.
Frankly, I doubt the emulated brains would be sentient. Turning that off would make them far more productive, so that would be a logical early development. Happiness is probably a non-question in that case.
Read Blindsight.
...OK, so it's a 380-page novel. Still, it's a ripping good read, and it will give you an intuition about why sentience isn't necessary for "intelligence" in the sense of effective goal-oriented behavior.
Is there a serious non-fiction treatment of the question?
Fortunately, Watts shows his homework and provides an entire appendix explaining the science he is drawing on (as one would expect from a scientist): http://www.rifters.com/real/Blindsight.htm#Notes
I've read through a number of his references and a few things on his blog like PRISMs, although his main source, philosopher Thomas Metzinger's Being No One, kicked my ass. You want 'serious non-fiction'? Go to.
Already non-conscious animals like dogs, chimpanzees, and parrots
They're not conscious? I must have been in bed with the flu when this was explained to the class.
My mop doesn't mope but it's excellent for mopping and a smile is likewise useless on tile. There's no reason to presume that we couldn't have emotionally dead producers, there just may be no value to anything they do. But they're grandly productive.
Another question is whether the residents of Kiryas Joel are rational. On the one hand, their beliefs and practices seem pretty ridiculous. On the other hand, they seem to be doing a good job of achieving their goals, i.e. to preserve themselves and grow in numbers and influence.
Are the inhabitants of Kiryas Joel unhappy?
The best way to know that is to ask them if they are happy/unhappy. The next best way is to look at proxy measures of happiness or unhappiness.
Money is an extremely poor proxy measure of happiness. In fact the amount of money that one has is almost completely unimportant to ones happiness (with some obvious exceptions). Ones beliefs about the direction ones money is heading is however fairly important for most peoples happiness, if one is or one thinks that one will be gaining more then one is happier, but on...
...A new census of the Amish population in the United States estimates that a new Amish community is founded, on average, about every 3 ½ weeks, and shows that more than 60 percent of all existing Amish settlements have been founded since 1990. This pattern suggests the Amish are growing more rapidly than most other religions in the United States, researchers say. Unlike other religious groups, however, the growth is not driven by converts joining the faith, but instead can be attributed to large families and high rates of baptism. In all, the census counts
Info on the leadership struggles involving Kiryas Joel and Williamsburg: http://www.txtpost.com/hats-on-gloves-off/
I completely disagree with the position argued by some here that "happiness that comes from having mistaken beliefs isn't valuable." I think that such happiness is a good and valuable thing. I do not think it is merely "less bad" than other things; I think it is good. The false belief is bad, but the happiness that comes from it is good.
I do not think that my position about this is an unusual position for people to hold. It is fairly common for me not to correct someone's false belief because I think they are happier and better off with...
I was browsing my RSS feed, as one does, and came across a New York Times article, "A Village With the Numbers, Not the Image, of the Poorest Place", about the Satmar Hasidic Jews of Kiryas Joel (NY).
Their interest lies in their extraordinarily high birthrate & population growth, and their poverty - which are connected. From the article:
From Wikipedia:
Robin Hanson has argued that uploaded/emulated minds will establish a new Malthusian/Darwinian equilibrium in "IF UPLOADS COME FIRST: The crack of a future dawn" - an equilibrium in comparison to which our own economy will look like a delusive dreamtime of impossibly unfit and libertine behavior. The demographic transition will not last forever. But despite our own distaste for countless lives living at near-subsistence rather than our own extreme per-capita wealth (see the Repugnant Conclusion), those many lives will be happy ones (even amidst disaster).
So. Are the inhabitants of Kiryas Joel unhappy?