You understand Bayes' Theorem. You enter into a situation with an intuitive "common sense" prior. You observe the situation, and then you shut up and multiply.
And then you go to update, you compute the desired behavior to maximize utility... and some cognitive module buried in your brain says "no".
Example:
I realize I need a physical examination. I have no rational reason to fear going to the doctor. I am, in fact, acutely aware that my fear of going to the doctor is based on a fear that they will find something wrong that I can't afford to fix, but the truth is already so. So I bite the bullet, make an appointment, and then at the scheduled time I get in the car and drive to the doctor's office.
And then I just keep driving past the doctor's office, turn around and go home.
I tell myself that if I'm not going, I should call the doctor to avoid a $100 no-show fee, but I don't.
And then I get home, and I tell myself that that was dumb, and that I need to update my behavior - and that physically punishing myself for not going to the doctor is not an efficient use of my energy.
So I punch my hand through a mirror.
NOW, finally, I have an excuse to go to the doctor - so I wrap my hand in bandages and go back to bed, instead.
What do you do when your computed probabilities and utility function have NO EFFECT WHATSOEVER on your actual behavior?
In person that can certainly be a problem with some emotional/irrational people but luckily we can't read facial expressions and body language here on the internet :)
It's a possibility you can't do that alone. I also suggest some of them would simply disappear were you in a different state of mind. That is, they might not be the actual problem, but caused by it, and fixing them from the wrong end could be incredibly ineffective.
Would I be wrong to claim the uncertainty is more general than philosophical?
Yes, but non-philosophical language is somewhat lacking in terms to explain it. I can spend 10 hours in separate 1-hour sessions trying to explain to a therapist that I don't feel comfortable asserting the existence of my own subjective experience and qualia, or I can simply say "do you know what the term 'p-zombie' means? Do you understand me if I say 'I can't maintain proper perception of my own qualia if someone else tells me that I'm faking my perceptions'?" - in ... (read more)