LessWrongers as a group are often accused of talking about rationality without putting it into practice (for an elaborated discussion of this see Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality). This behavior is particularly insidious because it is self-reinforcing: it will attract more armchair rationalists to LessWrong who will in turn reinforce the trend in an affective death spiral until LessWrong is a community of utilitarian apologists akin to the internet communities of anorexics who congratulate each other on their weight loss. It will be a community where instead of discussing practical ways to "overcome bias" (the original intent of the sequences) we discuss arcane decision theories, who gets to be in our CEV, and the most rational birthday presents (sound familiar?).
A recent attempt to counter this trend or at least make us feel better about it was a series of discussions on "leveling up": accomplishing a set of practical well-defined goals to increment your rationalist "level". It's hard to see how these goals fit into a long-term plan to achieve anything besides self-improvement for its own sake. Indeed, the article begins by priming us with a renaissance-man inspired quote and stands in stark contrast to articles emphasizing practical altruism such as "efficient charity"
So what's the solution? I don't know. However I can tell you a few things about the solution, whatever it may be:
- It wont feel like the right thing to do; your moral intuitions (being designed to operate in a small community of hunter gatherers) are unlikely to suggest to you anything near the optimal task.
- It will be something you can start working on right now, immediately.
- It will disregard arbitrary self-limitations like abstaining from politics or keeping yourself aligned with a community of family and friends.
- Speaking about it would undermine your reputation through signaling. A true rationalist has no need for humility, sentimental empathy, or the absurdity heuristic.
Whatever you may decide to do, be sure it follows these principles. If none of your plans align with these guidelines then construct a new one, on the spot, immediately. Just do something: every moment you sit hundreds of thousands are dying and billions are suffering. Under your judgement your plan can self-modify in the future to overcome its flaws. Become an optimization process; shut up and calculate.
I declare Crocker's rules on the writing style of this post.
Well, Bayesian nomenclature does permit certainty, just set P=1 or P=0. It isn't a consequence that the nomenclature doesn't allow it. It is that good Bayesians don't ever say that. To use a possibly silly analogy, the language of Catholic theology allows one to talk about Jesus being fully man and not fully divine, but a good Catholic will never assert that Jesus was not fully divine.
In what sense does it exist? In the sense that human brains function with a naive certainty element? I agree that humans aren't processing marginally probable descriptors. Are you claiming that a philosophical system that works should allow for naive certainty as something it can talk about and think exists?
Granted. That was very poorly (as in, eroneously) worded on my part. I should have said "Bayesian practices".
I mean naive realism, of course.
Essentially, yes. Although I should emphasize that I mean that in the most marginally sufficient cont... (read more)