In a comment on his skeptical post about Ray Kurzweil, he writes,
Unfortunately, [Kurzweil's] technological forecasting is naive, and I believe it will also prove erroneous (and in that, he is in excellent company). That would be of no consequence to me, or to others in cryonics, were it not for the fact that it has had, and continues to have, a corrosive effect on cryonics and immortalist activists and activism. His idea of the Singularity has created an expectation of entitlement and inevitability that are wholly unjustified, both on the basis of history, and on on the basis of events that are playing out now in the world markets, and on the geopolitical stage....
The IEET poll [link; Sep 7, 2011] found that the majority of their readers aged 35 or older said that they expect to “die within a normal human lifespan;” no surprises there.
This was in contrast to to an overwhelming majority (69%) of their readers under the age of 35 who believe that radical life extension will enable them to stay alive indefinitely, or “for centuries, at least.”
Where the data gets really interesting is when you look at the breakdown of just how these folks think they are going to be GIVEN practical immortality:
- 36% believe they will stay alive for centuries (at least) in their own (biological) bodies
- 26% expect that they will continue to survive by having their “minds uploaded to a computer”
- 7% expect to “die” but to eventually be resurrected by cryonics.
Only 7% think cryonics will be necessary? That simply delusional and it is a huge problem....
Nor are the 7% who anticipate survival via cryonics likely to be signed up. In fact, I’d wager not more than one or two of them is. And why should they bestir themselves in any way to this end? After all, the Singularity is coming, it is INEVITABLE, and all they have to do is to sit back and wait for it to arrive – presumably wrapped up in in pretty paper and with bows on.
Young people anticipating practical immortality look at me like some kind of raving mad Luddite when I try to convince them that if they are to have any meaningful chance at truly long term survival, they are going to have to act, work very hard, and have a hell of a lot of luck in the bargain....
Kurzweil has been, without doubt or argument, THE great enabler of this madness by providing a scenario and a narrative that is far more credible than Santa Claus, and orders of magnitude more appealing.
I wonder how people on Less Wrong would respond to that poll?
Edit: (Tried to) fix formatting and typo in title.
I have no such specially-tailored definition. The generics are sufficient for my context. I strongly dislike using specially-tailored definitions of widely used terms without first openly declaring that this is being done. It's an "underhanded" sort of thing to do in conversation, and counterproductive.
A. Far from ideally rational. "Rational" is not a binary state; it is a relative one. One can be, as you note, "more" or "less" rational.
B. You are badly failing to properly parse my statement. I make the axiomatic assumption of rationality and honesty in those I interact with until such time as they give me reason to believe otherwise of them.
I can see why you'd think I'm misinterpreting you. The trouble is, I don't believe I am, and in each instance where you've raised an objection or I have, I have provided the reasoning and motivation for that instance (insofar as I can recall at this instant.) On more than one occassion, contrastingly, I have made plain-language statements which you have failed to parse or have taken to mean very strongly different things than they otherwise did. You routinely introduce new and unnecessary assumptions into my statements, thereby altering their meanings, and you have left out elements of my statements, also thereby altering their meanings. One such example of this is my relating to you of my axiomatic assumption of rationality and honesty, which I clearly related as being conditional to contra-evidence. You proceded to lecture me on how bad a notion it is to not allow for irrationality in others. This can only mean that you did not, in fact, properly parse my statement... despite the clear and plain language I used to make it.
Not directly, but resveratrol itself is mimicing the effects of caloric restriction. Once again, this is something we had both already agreed upon being the case for this dialogue. So yes, I'm telling you what your hypothesis is. And I am right to do so -- because I am using your own statements in an internally consistent manner to themselves.
This, by the way, represents another instance of you making an internally inconsistent statement.
We are. You, however, are introducing the assumption -- unecessary and unwarranted based on the currently available datasets for this dialogue -- that overconfidence is yet relevant to the conversation.
We simply haven't gotten anywhere that justifies the belief or assumption of overconfidence.
Unfortunately, I'm being forced to update my beliefs in the direction of the elimination of the assumption. There's too many internally inconsistent statements you continue to make, and you claim points of fact as evidence for positions that the datasets in question directly contradict. (Case in point: your continued use of Stipp's text as a justification of the belief in mainstream medical acceptance of antagapics research. Additionally: Your notional rejection of the research done by geriontologists on the behaviors of aging as being relevant to the question of how aging occurs.)
What it means for someone to be rational doesn't really have a good generic. There's some intuition behind it that seems ok. But even that is simply a bad premise to use. It doesn't apply to most humans. Assuming even an approximate degree of rationality is probably not a justified assumption. You seem to be making a point that you are willing to update to conclude that someone isn't that rational. But whether you are willing to update or not isn't terrible relevant. I can assign a low probability to the sun rising each day and every time it does rise upd... (read more)