In a comment on his skeptical post about Ray Kurzweil, he writes,
Unfortunately, [Kurzweil's] technological forecasting is naive, and I believe it will also prove erroneous (and in that, he is in excellent company). That would be of no consequence to me, or to others in cryonics, were it not for the fact that it has had, and continues to have, a corrosive effect on cryonics and immortalist activists and activism. His idea of the Singularity has created an expectation of entitlement and inevitability that are wholly unjustified, both on the basis of history, and on on the basis of events that are playing out now in the world markets, and on the geopolitical stage....
The IEET poll [link; Sep 7, 2011] found that the majority of their readers aged 35 or older said that they expect to “die within a normal human lifespan;” no surprises there.
This was in contrast to to an overwhelming majority (69%) of their readers under the age of 35 who believe that radical life extension will enable them to stay alive indefinitely, or “for centuries, at least.”
Where the data gets really interesting is when you look at the breakdown of just how these folks think they are going to be GIVEN practical immortality:
- 36% believe they will stay alive for centuries (at least) in their own (biological) bodies
- 26% expect that they will continue to survive by having their “minds uploaded to a computer”
- 7% expect to “die” but to eventually be resurrected by cryonics.
Only 7% think cryonics will be necessary? That simply delusional and it is a huge problem....
Nor are the 7% who anticipate survival via cryonics likely to be signed up. In fact, I’d wager not more than one or two of them is. And why should they bestir themselves in any way to this end? After all, the Singularity is coming, it is INEVITABLE, and all they have to do is to sit back and wait for it to arrive – presumably wrapped up in in pretty paper and with bows on.
Young people anticipating practical immortality look at me like some kind of raving mad Luddite when I try to convince them that if they are to have any meaningful chance at truly long term survival, they are going to have to act, work very hard, and have a hell of a lot of luck in the bargain....
Kurzweil has been, without doubt or argument, THE great enabler of this madness by providing a scenario and a narrative that is far more credible than Santa Claus, and orders of magnitude more appealing.
I wonder how people on Less Wrong would respond to that poll?
Edit: (Tried to) fix formatting and typo in title.
The Wikipedia quote is unsourced. (My main source of knowledge about Brown-Sequard's involvement is Stipp's book and a few other minor sources none of which mention the derisive elixir claim.)
Is this intended as a personal attack or is there some other intention? This looks a bit like a series of boo lights apparently directed at me. But I'm already convinced that you and I have sufficiently different communication styles that I may be simply misreading this. What do you mean by "axiomatic assumptions of rational honesty" and how do you think what I have said is "internally" and "externally" inconsistent? Trying to interpret this, I'm getting something like "I don't think an individual who is trying to be rational and have an intellectually honest dialogue could distort sources the way you are doing." Is that what you mean to say? I can sort of see how you might get that if you thought I was using the Wikipedia article as a source. I just linked to it because although he was a major scientist around 1900, he's fairly obscure now. I didn't read it. Does that possibly explain the confusion here?
Right, and I limited mine to mammals since it is a lot easier to look in that context, since the metabolisms are pretty different. Note by the way that your example of an elephant actually shows my point pretty well: elephants are an order of magnitude larger than humans yet humans have maximal lifespans slightly exceeding that of an elephant. The oldest elephants have been a bit over 80 years old. That's in captivity with good veterinary care. But even without modern medical care humans have exceeded 110 years (albeit very rarely). There are two obvious issues with this (humans pay a lot more attention to old humans than old elephants, and we have a much larger supply of well-documented humans than we do of well-documented elephants), so it wouldn't be unreasonable to suspect that with a large enough sample the elephants' maximal age would look closer to the human maximal age. But then there's the whole order of magnitude larger thing. It does seem like great apes and humans in particular are already doing something else that has extended our maximal lifespan.
Sure. I'd agree with that. So let's look at engineering examples where lots of resources have gone into things. Fusion power would be a really good example. There have been billions of dollars put into fusion power research in the last fifty years (see e.g. this for data on but one source of funding from the US government that has given billions of dollars to fusion research). Famously, fusion power is always about twenty-five years away. Sometimes problems are just tough. Sometimes the wall isn't as sticky as you think it is.
Yes. But I still don't see how this is in any way results in a conclusion that the statement in question "is asinine". So I'm still confused.
Please don't tell me what my hypothesis was. The comment you were responding to was me raising the possibility that:
Notice that this statement says nothing at all about caloric restriction. The rest of your next paragraph is similarly irrelevant.
I don't see what's juvenile about this, and it would be slightly appreciated if you would make arguments that didn't involve unnecessary personal attacks. Your observation about what is commonly consumed is quite accurate. So, if there's something common in say the Western diet that reduces the effects of reservatrol or some similar compound, we might not even notice until we notice that the anti-aging compound is having much less of an effect than anticipated. And then you'd need to go and test those compounds. That sort of problem falls easily in the "remotely plausible" line of failures or in the "conceivable" world-lines you mentioned earlier.
That's fine if your claim is "this is likely to work" or even "this is very likely to work." But you've claimed that there's no conceivable world-line where this isn't working in fifty years and there hasn't been societal collapse or something similar preventing the research.
At this point, I have to wonder if we are running into problems of inferential distance. This is why I tried to ask you to make your earlier chain of logic explicit. Reducing it to premises like the non-supernatural nature of biology and then saying etc. is not helpful for bridging inferential distance gaps.
If I say I am confused, then I mean that I am confused.
I mean that I take it as an axiomatic principle that my conversants are honest and rational actors until such time as they demonstrate otherwise.
Internally inconsistent means ... (read more)