An Open Thread: a place for things foolishly April, and other assorted discussions.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
Update: Tom McCabe has created a sub-Reddit to use for assorted discussions instead of relying on open threads. Go there for the sub-Reddit and discussion about it, and go here to vote on the idea.
Because we don't care about the probability of being a particular individual, we care about the probability of being in a certain class (namely the class of people born late enough in history, which is characterized exactly by one minus "the probability that I was human number N, where N is some number from 1 to X").
But if you turn it around, and say "where N is some number from X to the total number of humans ever born", you get different results. And if you say "where N is within 1/10th of all humans ever of X", you also get different results.