An Open Thread: a place for things foolishly April, and other assorted discussions.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
Update: Tom McCabe has created a sub-Reddit to use for assorted discussions instead of relying on open threads. Go there for the sub-Reddit and discussion about it, and go here to vote on the idea.
I did not check the test in detail, but I somehow question the validity of the test: As presented in their summary, would not just total risk aversion give you a perfect score? 50% on everything, except for the 0 and 100 entries (where 0 is something like "hey, I do play an instrument, and I know this is total crap, except if I would now be hallucinating, in which case..."). It seems like a test which is too easy to play.
I remember seeing an LW post about why it's cheating to always guess 50%, but I haven't found the link to that post yet... I think the basic idea was that you could technically be perfectly calibrated by always guessing 50%, but that's like always claiming that you don't know anything at all. It also means that you're never updating your probabilities. It also makes you easily exploitable, since you'll always assume that your probability of winning any gamble is 50%. Oh, and then there are the times when you'll give different probabilities for the same event, if the question is worded in different ways.