Came across this paper posted in gr-qc (General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology) of all places. Abstract:
The observation that we are among the first 10^11 or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much higher, according to arguments of Carter, Leslie, Nielsen, and Gott. However, if we instead start with a prior probability that a history has a total lifetime number which is very large, without assuming that we are in such a history, this more basic probability is not reduced by the observation of how early in history we exist.
While I am skeptical of anything Don Page (Hawking's student and apparently an Evangelical Christian) writes on the topic of anthropics (he publishes stuff on Boltzmann Brains, for pity's sake), Stuart Armstrong and other resident experts in the area should be able to tell if this paper has any substance. If anything, it has a good list of references on the topic.
I'm wondering if there are multiple schools on this topic which do not read, interact or cite each other. If so, that would be a red flag of a diseased discipline.
First, the cited paper is from 1994, and was updated 18 years later only to commemorate the Mayan calendar doomsday. Katja's thesis does indeed cite this paper, so the red flag of a diseased discipline can be safely lowered.
Second, it is the favorite hobby of many physicists to spot some place in another field (biology, sociology etc.) where some concept from physics (percolation, self-organized criticality etc.) can be applied, and rush there without reading any of the already existing literature. This habit of physicists can be annoying even in itself fo... (read more)