This. The scientific community - in other words, millions of people working for hundreds of years, using all the reasonable means they could come up with - has so far found no trace of the supernatural. In order to go against their work, you'd need some rather heavy evidence. Do you have any?
See also Privileging the Hypothesis and Burdensome Details.
Also, you say you don't have a good reason to reject the supernatural altogether. That suggests that there are some specific supernatural things you still believe in. Be specific - exactly what are those? What makes you tempted to accept them as true?
"The supernatural" is such a broad category that asking "should I believe in the supernatural or not" is really a rather abstract question, and hard to give a definitive answer to. It's much easier to concentrate on the specifics. Take every thing you are tempted to belive in and might classify as supernatural and ask separately, "should I believe in this or not?".
I think the (very widely held) idea that consciousness is evidence that the world isn't purely material is founded on a mistake.
So the argument seems to go something like this. "Imagine a mind, or the nearest possible thing to a mind, made up entirely of material stuff. Can you see where its consciousness comes from? No? Why, then, clearly minds must be immaterial, or have immaterial components, or something of the sort."
But if you actually try to turn this into an argument that would convince someone who didn't already want to believe in immaterial minds/souls/spirits, you'll find that there's a huge gap in it. It purports to show that "minds are entirely material" (call this M) is less plausible than "minds are not entirely material" (not-M) by looking only at consequences of M and not comparing them with consequences of not-M.
If the argument had turned up an actual logical contradiction as a consequence of M, that would be fair enough: if M leads to contradiction then not-M must be better (unless M and not-M are both actually nonsense of some sort). But if M is merely improbable or counterintuitive or currently lacking good explanations, you can't c...
Free will is covered pretty extensively on this site, although as the wiki page suggests, it can be a useful experience to work out for yourself.
Moral absolutes are also addressed, but since I'm having trouble remembering the names of the articles, it's easier to simply ask; can you explain how we would observe the universe to be different if there were definitively no moral absolutes?
Consciousness is probably the least open-and-shut case of the three. Some reading is available here, but it might be quicker to deal with the question by asking this. Is the entirety of the consciousness contained in a supernatural entity? That is, is it an irreducible mental thing? If so, why does a person's mental state correspond so consistently to the physical state of their brain? If not, and the supernatural phenomenon merely translates the physical states into subjective experience, why suppose that something that doesn't follow the rules that every other known thing in existence does is the best explanation for this one thing, given that we've never found evidence of anything like that anywhere else?
You know, that's a surprisingly good point. In all my thousands of prayers and efforts to connect with God, I don't have even one single experience that was unambiguously out-of-this-world.
...add something with such high Kolmogorov complexity as non-physical minds to their ontology...
Translation:
Words like "supernatural" demand further explanation. That is because words like "supernatural" are vague and using them in your arguments causes your arguments to become opaque. And the validity of opaque arguments is hard to judge. You have to make your arguments more transparent by defining your terms.
Reducing the vagueness of words like "supernatural", by being more specific, or by naming concrete examples, causes your argument to become more complex (technically the complexity is already comprised in the vagueness of your terms, but ignore that for now). Your argument will be made up of a lot of additional sentences that can be false. The conclusion of an argument that is made up of a lot of statements that can be false is more unlikely to be true. That is because complex arguments can fail in a lot of different ways. You need to support each part of the argument that can be true or false and you can therefore fail to support one or more of its parts, which in turn will render the overall conclusion false.
Consider the above and what it ...
My advice would be to ignore natural/supernatural and focus on true/false instead. From the perspective of truth the category of "natural" is superfluous.
When I was joining, I also held a worldview which was plainly wrong. I read the sequences, but they did not very much help at changing my mind. I accepted what was written there, but still thought I was, somehow, correct. I changed my mind only due to the #lesswrong IRC channel (a kind of chatroom) on the freenode network. (for a web interface, see here). We can help you by quickly answering any questions you have, although this can not substitute reading the sequences.
Cool, changing your worldview is a special thing! Many of us here have been where you are now. As you continue reading the sequences, I suggest you leave yourself a line of retreat.
One issue that might be important for you is the question of what morality means without a supernatural backing. In that light, I recommend What Would You Do Without Morality? and The Moral Void if you haven't already read them.
I've now concluded that morality has a perfectly normal meaning without any supernatural backing (and a meaning, moreover, which justifies trying to be moral), but it took me a while after leaving my religion to reach that conclusion– and in the meantime, it was a relief to realize that I simply wanted friends, family and even stran...
Attempt to make beliefs pay rent, and beliefs in the supernatural will likely melt away as they fail to constrain your anticipated experiences.
And don't worry too much about supernatural beliefs. Just keep trying to make your beliefs correspond to reality, and see where that goes.
Supernaturalism is a distraction. Theologists defend supernaturalism as an indirect way of defending whatever God they want to believe in. See http://www.uncrediblehallq.net/2011/06/24/atheism-is-just-thinking-there-arent-any-gods/.
The sequences are not specifically tailored to convince people of atheism. They are rather a more general set of tools in going about and reasoning about the world. So don't over-ascribe relevance to atheism many of the philosophical ideas you see in there.
Have you read the entire Reductionism sequence? That would be the first step. The other big ones related to your query are How to Actually Change Your Mind (which isn't telling you that you should, just explains the general process of how to evaluate a new idea that might shatter your world view), and Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions.
Re-reading would be a good idea after you've read these once.
And of course, the other part of the sequences are good, just not related to what you're looking for.
As I see others are addressing your question, I'll just say: congratulations! Welcome to the world. Let us know if you need any help with anything!
It's only tangentially related to the subject, but if you believe the Bible is sexist - and I very much agree - the next logical step in my eyes would be avoiding gender-loaded language, such as "man-made".
The Bible was literally man-made. I really doubt that women had much to do with its original authorship or redaction history.
I just want to say one final "Thank you" to everyone for contributing. See you on #lesswrong IRC!
Background
I was raised in the Churches of Christ and my family is all very serious about Christianity. About 3 years ago, I started to ask some hard questions, and the answers from other Christians were very unsatisfying. I used to believe that the Bible was, you know, inspired by a loving God, but its endorsement of genocide, the abuse of slaves, and the mistreatment of women and children really started to bother me.
I set out to study these issues as much as I could. I stayed up past midnight for weeks reading what Christians have to say, and this process triggered a real crisis of faith. What started out as a search for answers on Biblical genocide led me to places like commonsenseatheism.com. I learned that the Bible has serious credibility problems on lots of issues that no one ever told me about. Wow.
My Question
Now I'm pretty sure that the God of the Bible is man-made and Jesus of Nazareth was probably a failed prophet, but I don't have good reasons to reject the supernatural all together. I'm working through the sequences, but this process is slow. I will probably struggle with this question for months, maybe longer.
Excluding the Supernatural was interesting, but it left me wanting a more thorough explanation. Where do you think I should go from here? Should I just continue reading the sequences, and re-read them until the ideas gel? I'm coming from 30 years of Sunday School level thinking. It's not like I grew up with words like "epistemology" and "epiphenomenalism". If there is no supernatural, and I can be confident about that, I will need to re-evaluate a lot of things. My worldview is up for grabs.