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Bias

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Created by Paul Crowley at 4y

Bias or Cognitive Bias is a systematic deviation from rationality committed by our cognition. They are specifics,specific, predictable error patterns in the human mind 1. The heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology has documented hundreds of reproducible errors - often big errors. This continues to be a highly active area of investigation in cognitive psychology.

In our evolutionary past, in order tothat a cognitive algorithm turned out in tointo a satisfactory solution to a given problems,problem, it wasn’wasn't enough to solve it properly. It was necessary that the solution accountaccounted for a large number of restrictions, such as time and energetic costs. This algorithm didn’didn't need to be perfect, only good enough to guarantee the survival and reproduction of the individual: “What selective pressures impact on decision mechanisms? Foremost is selection for making an appropriate decision in the given domain. This domain-specific pressure does not imply the need to make the best possible decision, but rather one that is good enough (a satisficing choice, as Herbert Simon, 1955, put it) and, on average, better than those of an individual’s competitors, given the costs and benefits involved.” 2

In our evolutionary past, in order to a cognitive algorithm turned out in to a satisfactory solution to a given problems, it wasn’t enough to solve it properly. It was necessary that the solution account for a large number of restrictions, such as time and energetic costs. This algorithm didn’t need to be perfect, only good enough to guarantee the survival and reproduction of the individual: “What selective pressures impact on decision mechanisms? Foremost is selection for making an appropriate decision in the given domain. This domain-specific pressure does not imply the need to make the best possible decision, but rather one that is good enough (a satisficing choice, as Herbert Simon, 1955, put it) and, on average, better than those of an individual’s competitors, given the costs and benefits involved.” 2 (BUSS, 2005 p. 778)

As used here, the term "bias"Bias or "cognitive bias" refers toCognitive Bias is a specific,systematic deviation from rationality committed by our cognition. They are specifics, predictable error patternpatterns in the human mind.mind 1. The heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology has documented hundreds of reproducible errors - often hugebig errors. This continues to be a highly active area of investigation in cognitive psychology.

In our evolutionary past, in order to a cognitive algorithm turned out in to a satisfactory solution to a given problems, it wasn’t enough to solve it properly. It was necessary that the solution account for a large number of restrictions, such as time and energetic costs. This algorithm didn’t need to be perfect, only good enough to guarantee the survival and reproduction of the individual: “What selective pressures impact on decision mechanisms? Foremost is selection for making an appropriate decision in the given domain. This domain-specific pressure does not imply the need to make the best possible decision, but rather one that is good enough (a satisficing choice, as Herbert Simon, 1955, put it) and, on average, better than those of an individual’s competitors, given the costs and benefits involved.” 2 (BUSS, 2005 p. 778) Therefore, the human brain make operations which solve cognitive tasks through ‘shortcuts’, that work well on some cases but fail in others. Since the cognitive modules that make those tasks are universals in the human species, how and where those shortcuts lead to mistakes are also regular. The study of why, how and where such errors arise is the field of cognitive bias. Understanding cognitive biases and trying to defend against their effects has been a basic theme of Less Wrong since the days it was part of Overcoming Bias.

References

  1. POHL, Rüdiger (orgs.). (2005) "Cognitive Illusions: A Handbook on Fallacies and Biases in Thinking, Judgement and Memory". Psychology Press. p. 2↩
  2. BUSS, David(orgs.). (2005) "The Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology". Wiley, New Jersey. p. 778.↩
  • Scope Insensitivity - The human brain can't represent large quantities: an environmental measure that will save 200,000 birds doesn't conjure anywhere near a hundred times the emotional impact and willingness-to-pay of a measure that would save 2,000 birds.
  • Correspondence Bias, also known as the fundamental attribution error, refers to the tendency to attribute the behavior of others to intrinsic dispositions, while excusing one's own behavior as the result of circumstance.
  • Confirmation bias, or Positive Bias is the tendency to look for evidence that confirms a hypothesis, rather than disconfirming evidence.
  • Hindsight Bias describes the tendency to seem much more likely in hindsight than could have been predicted beforehand.
  • Planning Fallacy - We tend to plan envisioning that everything will go as expected. Even assuming that such an estimate is accurate conditional on everything going as expected, things will not go as expected. As a result, we routinely see outcomes worse thenthan the ex ante worst case scenario.
  • Conjunction Fallacy - Elementary probability theory tells us that the probability of one thing (we write P(A)) is necessarily greater than or equal to the conjunction of that thing and another thing (write P(A&B)). However, in the psychology lab, subjects' judgments do not conform to this rule. This is not an isolated artifact of a particular study design. Debiasing won't be as simple as practicing specific questions, it requires certain general habits of thought.
  • We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think - we all change our minds occasionally, but we don't constantly, honestly reevaluate every decision and course of action. Once you think you believe something, the chances are good that you already do, for better or worse.
  • Priming and Contamination - Even slight exposure to a stimulus is enough to change the outcome of a decision or estimate. See also Never Leave Your Room by Yvain, and Cached Selves by Salamon and Rayhawk.
  • Do We Believe Everything We're Told? - Some experiments on priming suggest that mere exposure to a view is enough to get one to passively accept it, at least until it is specifically rejected.
  • Illusion of Transparency - Everyone knows what their own words mean, but experiments have confirmed that we systematically overestimate how much sense we are making to others.
  • Self-Anchoring - Related to contamination and the illusion of transparancy, we "anchor" on our own experience and underadjust when trying to understand others.
  • Affect Heuristic - Positive and negative emotional impressions exert a greater effect on many decisions than does rational analysis.
  • Evaluability - It's difficult for humans to evaluate an option except in comparison to other options. Poor decisions result when a poor category for comparison is used. Includes an application for cheap gift-shopping.
  • Unbounded Scales, Huge Jury Awards, and Futurism - Without a metric for comparison, estimates of, e.g., what sorts of punative damages should be awarded, or when some future advance will happen, vary widely simply due to the lack of a scale.
  • The Halo Effect - Positive qualities seem to correlate with each other, whether or not they actually do.
  • Asch's Conformity Experiment - The unanimous agreement of surrounding others can make subjects disbelieve (or at least, fail to report) what's right before their eyes. The addition of just one dissenter is enough to dramatically reduce the rates of improper conformity.
  • The Allais Paradox (and subsequent followups) - Offered choices between gambles, people make decision-theoretically inconsistent decisions.
  • Scope Insensitivity —- The human brain can't represent large quantities: an environmental measure that will save 200,000 birds doesn't conjure anywhere near a hundred times the emotional impact and willingness-to-pay of a measure that would save 2,000 birds.
  • Correspondence Bias, also known as the fundamental attribution error, refers to the tendency to attribute the behavior of others to intrinsic dispositions, while excusing one's own behavior as the result of circumstance.
  • Confirmation bias, or Positive Bias is the tendency to look for evidence that confirms a hypothesis, rather than disconfirming evidence.
  • Hindsight Bias describes the tendency to seem much more likely in hindsight than could have been predicted beforehand.
  • Planning Fallacy —- We tend to plan envisioning that everything will go as expected. Even assuming that such an estimate is accurate conditional on everything going as expected, things will not go as expected. As a result, we routinely see outcomes worse then the ex ante worst case scenario.
  • Conjunction Fallacy —- Elementary probability theory tells us that the probability of one thing (we write P(A)) is necessarily greater than or equal to the conjunction of that thing and another thing (write P(A&B)). However, in the psychology lab, subjects' judgments do not conform to this rule. This is not an isolated artifact of a particular study design. Debiasing won't be as simple as practicing specific questions, it requires certain general habits of thought.
  • We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think —- we all change our minds occasionally, but we don't constantly, honestly reevaluate every decision and course of action. Once you think you believe something, the chances are good that you already do, for better or worse.
  • Priming and Contamination —- Even slight exposure to a stimulus is enough to change the outcome of a decision or estimate. See also Never Leave Your Room by Yvain, and Cached Selves by Salamon and Rayhawk.
  • Do We Believe Everything We're Told? —- Some experiments on priming suggest that mere exposure to a view is enough to get one to passively accept it, at least until it is specifically rejected.
  • Illusion of Transparency —- Everyone knows what their own words mean, but experiments have confirmed that we systematically overestimate how much sense we are making to others.
  • Self-Anchoring —- Related to contamination and the illusion of transparancy, we "anchor" on
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More biases

More Biases:

Biases

===Wiki category and blog tag:===

Starting points:

Blog posts on the concept of "bias":

Blog posts about known cognitive biases:

See also

Not to be confused with:

As used here, the term "bias" or "cognitive bias" refers to a specific, predictable error pattern in the human mind. The heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology has documented hundreds of reproducible errors - often huge reproducible errors. From these errors in turn we can infer the specific reasoning mechanisms that give rise to the specific errors, the "heuristics". This continues to be a highly active area of investigation in cognitive psychology.

Understanding cognitive biases and trying to fix themdefend against their effects has been a basic theme of Less Wrong since the days it was part of Overcoming Bias.

References

===Wiki category and blog tag

tag:===

Blog posts on the concept of "bias":

Blog posts about known cognitive biasesbiases:

Not to be confused withwith:

References

Wiki category and blog tag

Bias is aAs used here, the term used"bias" or "cognitive bias" refers to describe a tendency or preference towards a particular perspective, ideology or result, especially when the tendency interferes with the ability to be impartial, unprejudiced, or objective.

Humans are subject to scores of specific, predictable error patternspattern in the human mind. The heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology has documented hundreds of reproducible errors - often huge reproducible errors. From these errors in turn we can infer the specific reasoning mechanisms that are likelygive rise to make your beliefs… well… not the sortsspecific errors, the "heuristics". This continues to be a highly active area of things you'd like to bet your future on. Theinvestigation in cognitive psychology.

Understanding cognitive biases and heuristics research program within cognitive psychology gathered solid documentationtrying to fix them has been a basic theme of manyLess Wrong since the days it was part of these specific error patterns – many reasons why you can expect particular sorts of errors in your current beliefs. Take this research seriously, and you'll never think the same way again.Overcoming Bias.

Some starting-

Starting points:

See Also

References

Overcoming Bias Articles

Blog posts on the concept of "bias"

Blog posts about known cognitive biases

  • Scope Insensitivity — The human brain can't represent large quantities: an environmental measure that will save 200,000 birds doesn't conjure anywhere near a hundred times the emotional impact and willingness-to-pay of a measure that would save 2,000 birds, even though in fact the former measure is two orders of magnitude more effective. (See also further commentary in One Life Against the World, and the terrible dilemma of Torture vs. Dust Specks)birds.
  • Correspondence Bias, also known as the fundamental attribution error, refers to the tendency to
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