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Forecasting & Prediction

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Applied to Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool by RobertM 8h ago

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Applied to The Technist Reformation: A Discussion with o1 About The Coming Economic Event Horizon by Raemon 10d ago

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Applied to Forecast With GiveWell by Raemon 10d ago

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Applied to Mathematical Futurology: From Pseudoscience to Rigorous Framework by Wenitte Apiou 22d ago

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Applied to "Map of AI Futures" - An interactive flowchart by swante 24d ago

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Applied to Will Orion/Gemini 2/Llama-4 outperform o1 by LuigiPagani 1mo ago

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Applied to Seven lessons I didn't learn from election day by Rasool 1mo ago

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Applied to Markets Are Information - Beating the Sportsbooks at Their Own Game by JJXW 1mo ago

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Applied to How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk? by NunoSempere 2mo ago

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Applied to Concrete benefits of making predictions by Jonny Spicer 2mo ago

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Applied to The Great Bootstrap by KristianRonn 2mo ago

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Applied to Launching Adjacent News by Lucas Kohorst 2mo ago

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Applied to Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus's Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark by Raemon 2mo ago

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Applied to Safe Predictive Agents with Joint Scoring Rules by ProgramCrafter 2mo ago

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Applied to 2024 Election Forecasting Contest by mike20731 3mo ago

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Applied to AXRP Episode 37 - Jaime Sevilla on Forecasting AI by DanielFilan 3mo ago

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Applied to Comparing Forecasting Track Records for AI Benchmarking and Beyond by Raemon 3mo ago

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Applied to Hyperpolation by Gunnar_Zarncke 3mo ago

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Applied to Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting by David Glidden 3mo ago