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Forecasts (Specific Predictions)

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Applied to Moderately Skeptical of "Risks of Mirror Biology" by Davidmanheim 6d ago

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Applied to "Map of AI Futures" - An interactive flowchart by swante 1mo ago

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Applied to LLM chatbots have ~half of the kinds of "consciousness" that humans believe in. Humans should avoid going crazy about that. by ProgramCrafter 1mo ago

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Applied to Will Orion/Gemini 2/Llama-4 outperform o1 by LuigiPagani 1mo ago

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Applied to How Likely Are Various Precursors of Existential Risk? by NunoSempere 2mo ago

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Applied to A path to human autonomy by Nathan Helm-Burger 2mo ago

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Applied to How does someone prove that their general intelligence is above average? by M. Y. Zuo 3mo ago

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Applied to A bet for Samo Burja by Nathan Helm-Burger 4mo ago

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Applied to Superintelligent AI is possible in the 2020s by HunterJay 4mo ago

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Applied to AI #72: Denying the Future by MondSemmel 6mo ago

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Applied to An AI Manhattan Project is Not Inevitable by Maxwell Tabarrok 6mo ago

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Applied to Contra Acemoglu on AI by Maxwell Tabarrok 6mo ago

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Applied to Scaling of AI training runs will slow down after GPT-5 by MondSemmel 8mo ago

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Applied to Superforecasting the Origins of the Covid-19 Pandemic by DanielFilan 10mo ago

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Applied to 2024 ACX Predictions: Blind/Buy/Sell/Hold by MondSemmel 1y ago

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Applied to Is it justifiable for non-experts to have strong opinions about Gaza? by Adam Zerner 1y ago

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Applied to Rating my AI Predictions by Robert_AIZI 1y ago

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Applied to Some of my predictable updates on AI by Raemon 1y ago

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Applied to Superforecasting the premises in “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?” by Raemon 1y ago