Overconfidence

Overconfidence is the state of being more certain than is justified, given your priors and the evidence available.

Blog posts

• Moral Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
• When Error is High, Simplify by Robin Hanson
• Academic Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
• Bosses Prefer Overconfident Managers by Robin Hanson
• Convenient Overconfidence by Robin Hanson
• Overconfidence Explained by Robin Hanson
• On Overconfidence by Scott Alexander

See also

• Underconfidence
• Status, Modesty
• Dangerous knowledge