One of the more speculative solutions of the Fermi paradox is that all civilizations decide to stay home, thereby meta-cause other civilizations to stay home too, and thus allow the Fermi paradox to have a nice solution. (I remember reading this idea in Paul Almond’s writings about evidential decision theory,...
Consider Nick Bostrom's Incubator Gedankenexperiment, phrased as a decision problem. In my mind, this provides the purest and simplest example of a non-trivial anthropic decision problem. In an otherwise empty world, the Incubator flips a coin. If the coin comes up heads, it creates one human, while if the coin...
Not sure I understand your question, but:
Thanks, I fixed it.
One of the more speculative solutions of the Fermi paradox is that all civilizations decide to stay home, thereby meta-cause other civilizations to stay home too, and thus allow the Fermi paradox to have a nice solution. (I remember reading this idea in Paul Almond’s writings about evidential decision theory, which unfortunately seem no longer available online.) The plausibility of this argument is definitely questionable. It requires a very high degree of goal convergence both within and among different civilizations. Let us grant this convergence and assume that, indeed, most civilizations arrive at the same decision and that they make their decision knowing this. One paradoxical implication then is: If a civilization... (read 597 more words →)
Thanks a lot for your comments, they were very insightful for me. Let me play the Advocatus Diaboli here and argue from the perspective of a selfish agent against your reasoning (and thus also against my own, less refined version of it).
"I object to the identification 'S = $B'. I do not care about the money owned by the person in cell B, I only do so if that person is me. I do not know whether the coin has come up heads or tails, but I do not care about how much money the other person that may have been in cell B had the coin come up differently would have... (read more)
The decision you describe in not stable under pre-commitments. Ahead of time, all agents would pre-commit to the $2/3. Yet they seem to change their mind when presented with the decision. You seem to be double counting, using the Bayesian updating once and the fact that their own decision is responsible for the other agent's decision as well.
Yes, this is exactly the point I was trying to make -- I was pointing out a fallacy. I never intended "lexicality-dependent utilitarianism" to be a meaningful concept, it's only a name for thinking in this fallacious way.
I elaborated on this difference here. However, I don't think this difference is relevant for my parent comment. With indexical utility functions I simply mean selfishness or "selfishness plus hating the other person if another person exists", while with lexicality-independent utility functions I meant total and average utilitarianism.
The broader question is "does bringing in gnomes in this way leave the initial situation invariant"? And I don't think it does. The gnomes follow their own anthropic setup (though not their own preferences), and their advice seems to reflect this fact (consider what happens when the heads world has 1, 2 or 50 gnomes, while the tails world has 2).
As I wrote (after your comment) here, I think it is prima facie very plausible for a selfish agent to follow the gnome's advice if a) conditional on the agent existing, the gnome's utility function agrees with the agent's and b) conditional on the agent not existing, the gnome's utility function is... (read 463 more words →)
First scenario: there is no such gnome. The number of gnomes is also determined by the coin flip, so every gnome will see a human. Then if we apply the reasoning from http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l58/anthropic_decision_theory_for_selfish_agents/bhj7 , this will result with a gnome with a selfish human agreeing to x<$1/2.
If the gnomes are created after the coin flip only, they are in exactly the same situation like the humans and we cannot learn anything by considering them that we cannot learn from considering the humans alone.
... (read more)Instead, let's now make the gnome in the head world hate the other human, if they don't have one themselves. The result of this is that they will agree to
Thanks for your reply.
Ok, I don't like gnomes making current decisions based on their future values.
For the selfish case, we can easily get around this by defining the gnome's utility function to be the amount of $ in the cell. If we stipulate that this can only change through humans buying lottery tickets (and winning lotteries) and that humans cannot leave the cells, the gnome's utility function coincides with the human's. Similarly, we can define the gnome's utility function to be the amount of $ in all cells (the average amount of $ in those cells inhabited by humans) in the total (average) utilitarian case.
This seems to be a much neater... (read 877 more words →)
Consider Nick Bostrom's Incubator Gedankenexperiment, phrased as a decision problem. In my mind, this provides the purest and simplest example of a non-trivial anthropic decision problem. In an otherwise empty world, the Incubator flips a coin. If the coin comes up heads, it creates one human, while if the coin comes up tails, it creates two humans. Each created human is put into one of two indistinguishable cells, and there's no way for created humans to tell whether another human has been created or not. Each created human is offered the possibility to buy a lottery ticket which pays 1$ if the coin has shown tails. What is the maximal price that... (read 1718 more words →)
Not sure how much sense it makes to take the arithmetic mean of probabilities when the odds vary over many orders of magnitude. If the average is, say, 30%, then it hardly matters whether someone answers 1% or .000001%. Also, it hardly matters whether someone answers 99% or 99.99999%.
I guess the natural way to deal with this would be to average (i.e., take the arithmetic mean of) the order of magnitude of the odds (i.e., log[p/(1-p)], p someone's answer). Using this method, it would make a difference whether someone is "pretty certain" or "extremely certain" that a certain statement is true or false.
Does anyone know what the standard way for dealing with this issue is?
Dear Americans,
While spending a holiday in the New Orleans and Mississippi region, I was baffled by the typical temperatures in air-conditioned rooms. The point of air conditioning is to make people feel comfortable, right? It is obviously very bad at achieving this. I saw shivering girls with blue lips waiting in the airport. I saw ladies wearing a jacket with them which they put on as soon as they entered an air-conditioned room. The rooms were often so cold that I felt relieved the moment I left them and went back into the heat. Cooling down less than to the optimally comfortable temperature would make some economical and ecological sense, and would... (read more)