I'd be lying if I said I hadn't considered it 🤣
Advanced AI is a bomb, and we're about to set it off without any safety equipment.
For Policymakers
Suppose you find out that you had a disease will kill you. The prognosis is grim: with luck, you have a decade left. But maybe that's long enough to find a cure! How much is that cure worth to you?
Uncontrolled advanced AI could be the disease that kills you. The prognosis is grim: with luck, you have a decade left. But maybe that's long enough to find a cure! How much is that cure worth to you?
For Policymakers, original-ish
How hard did you think about killing the last cockroach you found in your house? We're the cockroaches, and we are in the AI's house. For policy-makers, variant on the anthill argument, original source unknown
Fair point. It does seems like "pandemic" is a more useful category if it doesn't include a whole bunch of "things that happened but didn't kill a lot of people."
Without aging, COVID-19 would not be a global pandemic, since the death rate in individuals below 30 years old is extremely low.
A pandemic is an epidemic that occurs across multiple continents. Note that we can accordingly envision a pandemic with a death rate of zero, but a pandemic none-the-less. Accordingly, I think you've somewhat overstated the punchline about aging and COVID-19, though I agree with the broader point that if aging were effectively halted at 30, the death rates would be much, much lower.
If I wasn't trying to not-spend-time-on-this, I would fit a Random Forest or a Neural Network (rather than a logistic regression) to capture some non-linear signal, and, when it predicted well, fire up an optimizer to see how much in which stats really helps.
Fun! I wish I had a lot more time to spend on this, but here's a brief and simple basis for a decision:
library(readr)
library(dplyr)
library(magrittr)
training <- read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/H-B-P/d-and-d-sci/main/d_and_d_sci.csv")
training %<>%
dplyr::mutate(outcome = ifelse(result=="succeed", 1, 0))
model <- glm(outcome ~ cha + con + dex + int + str + wis, data = training, family = "binomial")
summary(model)
start <- data.frame(str = c(6), con = c(14), dex = c(13), int = c(13), wis = c(12), cha = c(4))
predict.glm(It would also be very useful to build some GPT feature "visualization" tools ASAP.
Do you have anything more specific in mind? I see the Image Feature Visualization tool, but in my mind it's basically doing exactly what you're already doing by comparing GPT-2 and GPT-3 snippets.
If it's not fast enough, it doesn't matter how good it is
Sure! My brute-force bitwise algorithm generator won't be fast enough to generate any algorithm of length 300 bits, and our universe probably can't support any representation of any algorithm of length greater than (the number of atoms in the observable universe) ~ 10^82 bits. (I don't know much about physics, so this could be very wrong, but think of it as a useful bound. If there's a better one (e.g. number of Planck volumes in the observable universe), substitute that and carry on, and also ple
...Anything sufficiently far enough away from you is causally isolated from you. Because of the fundamental constraints of physics, information from there can never reach here, and vice versa. you may as well be in separate universes.
The performance of AlphaGo got me thinking about algorithms we can't access. In the case of AlphaGo, we implemented the algorithm (AlphaGo) which discovered some strategies we could never have created. (Go Master Ke Jie famously said "I would go as far as to say not a single human has touched the edge of the truth of Go.")
Perhaps
...A second round is scheduled to begin this Saturday, 2020-02-08. New predictors should have a minor advantage in later rounds as the winners will have already exhausted all the intellectual low-hanging fruit. Please join us!
Thank you!
I would also like to convert it to a more flexible e-reader format. It appears to have been typeset using ... Would it be possible to share the source files?
It's time to test the Grue Hypothesis! Anyone have some Emeralds handy?
It occurs to me that the world could benefit from more affirmative fact checker. Existing fact checkers are appropriately rude to people who publicly make false claims, but there's not much in the way of celebration of people who make difficult true claims. For example, Politifact awards "Pants on Fire" for bald lies, but only "True" for bald truths. I think there should be an even higher-status classification for true claims that run counter to the interests of the speaker. For example, we could award "Bayesian Stars" to figures who publicly update on new
...It occurs to me that "Following one's passion" is terrible advice at least in part because of the lack of diversity in the activities we encourage children to pursue. It follows that encouraging children to participate in activities with very high-competition job markets (e.g. sports, the arts) may be a substantial drag on economic growth. After 5 minutes of search, I could not find research on this relationship. (It seems the state of scholarship on the topic is restricted to models in which participation in extracurriculars early in childhood leads to be
...Attention Conservation Warning: I envision a model which would demonstrate something obvious, and decide the world probably wouldn't benefit from its existence.
The standard publication bias is that we must be 95% certain a described phenomenon exists before a result is publishable (at which time it becomes sufficiently "confirmed" to treat the phenomenon as a factual claim). But the statistical confidence of a phenomenon conveys interesting and useful information regardless of what that confidence is.
Consider the space of all possible relationships: most o
...Please please please make this happen!
Thank you! I don't have a good way to test Apple products (so the fix won't be quick), but I'll look into it.
Thanks for letting me know. I use [Calibre](https://calibre-ebook.com/about) to test the files, and it opens the file without complaint. What are you using (and on what platform) to read it?
My pleasure!
I have converted Rationality Abridged to EPUB and MOBI formats. The code to accomplish this is stored in this repository.
I'm on it!
- A roundworm has been uploaded to a Lego body (http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/21/tech/mci-lego-worm/index.html)
This happened in 2015.
The Wikipedia page on Resurrection contains some scattershot content (including links the H+Pedia article lacks) which might be useful to assimilate.
The fronted plugin worked when I submitted my comment, but I'm getting the "refresh to render LaTex" message as well. Neither refreshes nor fresh browser sessions seem to yield latex.
Excellent, Thank you!
Nice post! I'd like to put a copy of the code on Github, but I don't see a license anywhere in the directory (or mentioned in the files). May I assume it's generally intended to be Open Source and I can do this?
Hey Ben, I just re-ran it and it worked very well. Thanks a lot!
Many broken links in the Codex.
Searching is fast and awesome and I love it.
Initial pageload is very slow: nearly 2.5MB, requiring 14.17s until DOMContentLoaded, 1.5MB of which is a single file.
1a. If a professor is a suitable source for a recommendation, they've probably taught a course on the topic, and that course's syllabus may be available on the open web without emailing the professor.
If there was randomness such that you had some probability of a strongly positive event, would this incline you towards life?
Even if the probability was trivial?
The experiment specifies that the circumstances are all but literally indistinguishable:
I'll allow you to relive your life up to this moment exactly as it unfolded the first time -- that is, all the exact same experiences, life decisions, outcomes, etc.
If the sequence of events is "exactly" the same, then from your perspective it cannot be distinguished. If it could, then some event must have happened differently in the past to make it such that you were aware things were different, which violates the tenets of God's claim. In other words, the two timelines basically must be indistinguishable from your perspective.
Framing note: it's worth examining how intuitions change when you replace "God" with "Omega" and "relive" with "reset the deterministic simulation that computed".
There are many moments of my life that would give me pause about re-living them. However, were I much younger and aware that I was doomed to that set of experiences, I wouldn't opt to commit suicide. It therefore follows that my life thus far has been worth living, and that I should opt to re-live it, rather than be annihilated.
That said, it seems to me that these 'choices' are not an opportunity to make a choice at all. In this thought experiment, do we live out our second instance with the knowledge that it is a second instance and we are incapable of ac...
I'm aware. Note that I did call it the "least likely possibility."
For example, maybe they figured out how to convince it to accept some threshold of certainty (so it doesn't eat the universe to prove that it produced exactly 1,000,000 paperclips), it achieved its terminal goal with a tiny amount of energy (less than one star's worth), and halted.
This is actually a fairly healthy field of study. See, for example, Nonphotosynthetic Pigments as Potential Biosignatures.
...Think of the Federation's "Prime Directive" in Star Trek.
Thanks for this! Just to clarify what I meant by "manual distribution", if you've written a dating profile outside of a dating app, you've basically got to share a link if you want anyone to read it (see e.g. this post).