All of aberglas's Comments + Replies

I hate the term "Neural Network", as do many serious people working in the field.

There are Perceptrons which were inspired by neurons but are quite different. There are other related techniques that optimize in various ways. There are real neurons which are very complex and rather arbitrary. And then there is the greatly simplified Integrate and Fire (IF) abstraction of a neuron, often with Hebbian learning added.

Perceptrons solve practical problems, but are not the answer to everything as some would have you believe. There are new and powe... (read more)

0Gunnar_Zarncke
I'd think that deep neural networks as here with e.g. backprogation thru time/BPP are meant.

SHRDLU was very impressive by any standards. It was released in the very early 1970s, when computers had only a few kilobytes of memory. Fortran was only about 15 years old. People had only just started to program. And then using paper tape.

SHRDLU took a number of preexisting ideas about language processing and planning and combines them beautifully. And SHRDLU really did understand its tiny world of logical blocks.

Given how much had been achieved in the decade prior to SHRDLU it was entirely reasonable to assume that real intelligence would be achiev... (read more)

It stopped being all, about genes when genes grew brains..

Yes and no. In the sense that memes as well as genes float about then certainly. But we have strong instincts to raise and protect children, and we have brains. There is not particular reason why we should sacrifice ourselves for our children other than those instincts, which are in our genes.

It is absolutely the fact that gene drift is more common than mutation. Indeed, a major reason for sexual reproduction is to provide alternate genes that can mask other genes broken by mutations.

An AGI would be made up of components in some sense, and those components could be swapped in and out to some extent. If a new theorem prover is created an AGI may or may not decide to use it. That is similar to gene swapping, but done consciously.

0ChristianKl
Both have nothing to do with natural selection. Genetic drift is when a gene get's lucky and spreads to the whole population even though it provides no advantage. Alternatively a gene like human vitamin C enzymes that's useful but for which there isn't strong selection pressure can die in gamblers ruin.

One thing that I would like to see is + and - separated out. If the article received -12 and +0 then it is a looser. But if it received -30 and + 18 then it is merely controversial.

0DaFranker
It's pretty much already provided, there's just that minor inconvenience of algebra between you and the article's vote counts, which IMO is a good thing. As of 10/15, the article sits at -13, 24% positive (hover mouse over the karma score to see %). That's 24x-76x = -13 -> 4x = 1: 6 upvotes, 19 downvotes, net -13.

Indeed, and that is perhaps the most important point. Is it really possible to have just one monolithic AGI? Or would by its nature end up with multiple, slightly different AGIs? The latter would be necessary for natural selection.

As to whether spawned AGIs are "children", that is a good question.

Natural selection does not cause variation. It just selects which varieties will survive. Things like sexual selection are just special cases of natural selection.

The trouble with the concept of natural selection is not that it is too narrow, but rather that it is too broad. It can explain just about anything, real or imagined. Modern research has greatly refined the idea, determined how NS works in practice. But never to refute it.

1ChristianKl
Exactly and in the real world there are factors that do cause variation and those factors do matter for how organisms evolve. It something that Darwin didn't fully articulate but that's well established in biology today. The basic breakdown of evolution that I got taught five years ago at university (genetics for bioformatics) is: Evolution = Natural Selection + Gene Drift + Mutations At the time there wasn't a consensus of the size of those factors but it's there are scientists who do consider gene drift to be as influential as natural selection. One of the arguments for that position was that if I remember correctly something like half of the DNA difference between humans and other apes is in mutations that don't produce different genes. That's argument is a bit flawed because even DNA changes that don't change which proteins a gene produces can be subject to natural selection. On the other hand there no good way to estimate the factor. I however doubt that anyone who runs computer models of genetics considers natural selection to be >0.99. If you shut up and calculate it's just not realistic for the factor to be that high. Not every gene mutates equally so, that factor has to be in the formula and you get wrong results if you just look at natural selection pressures and gene drift.

I've never understood how one can have "moral facts" that cannot be observed scientifically. But it does not matter, I am not being normative, but merely descriptive. If moral values did not ultimatey arise from natural selections, where did they arise from?

-2Fivehundred
Given the fact that the 'scientizing' paradigm is as much open to criticism as anything in the OP, it's hard to see what, if any, relevance this has. This is just equivocation of physical human impulses and moral imperatives.The two don't have anything to do with each other, aside from the possibility of being conterminous.

Passive in the sense of not being able to actively produce offspring that are like the parents. The "being like" is the genes. Volcanoes do not produce volcanoes in the sense that worms produce baby worms.

For an AI that means its ability to run on hardware. And to pass its intelligence down to future versions of itself. A little vaguer, but still the same idea.

This is just the idea of evolution through natural selection, a rather widely held idea.

0ChristianKl
Today biologists don't consider natural selection not the only factor but also see things like gene drift and mutations to be important.

Yes, moral values are not objective or universal.

Note that this is not normative but descriptive. It is not saying what ought, but what is. I am not trying to justify normative ethics, just to provide an explanation of where our moral values come from.

(Thanks for the comments, this all adds value.)

0TheAncientGeek
Not proven. Yout can't prove that by noting that instinctual system 1, values aren't objective, because that says nothing about what system 2 can come up with.

Interesting point about fecudity.

Perhaps the weakness of evolutionary thought is that it can explain just about anything. In particular organisms are not perfect, and therefor will have features that do not really help them. But mostly they are well adapted.

The reason that homosexuality is an obstacle to survival is not homophobia or STDs, but rather that they simply may not have children. It is the survival of the genes that counts in the long run. But until recently homosexuals tended to suppress their feelings and so married and had children anyway, hence there being little pressure to suppress it.

The counter examples are good, and I will use them. There are several responses as you allude to, the main one being that those behaviors are rare. Art is a bit harder, but it seems related to creativity which is definitely survival based, and most of us do not spend much of our time painting etc.

I do not quite get your other point. For people it is our genes that count, so dieing while protecting one's family makes sense if necessary. For the AI it would be its code linage. I am not talking about an AI wanting to make people survive, but that the AI itself would want to survive. Whatever "itself" really means.

1TheAncientGeek
Artistic activity is standardly explained as a spin off from sexual display. Substitute myself, or yourself, for itself, and you've got my point. Evolution creates a strong motive toward self preservation, but a very malleable sense of self. The human organism is run by the brain, and the human brain can entertain all sorts of ideas. The billionaire thinks his money's "me" and so commits suicide if he loses his wealth .. even if the odd million he has left is enough to keep his body going. It stopped being all, about genes when genes grew brains..

First let me thank you for taking the trouble to read my post and comment in such detail. I will respond in a couple of posts.

Moral values certainly exist. Moreover, they are very important for our human survival. People with bad moral values generally do badly, and societies with large numbers of people with bad moral values certainly do badly.

My point is that those moral values themselves have an origin. And the reason that we have them is because having them makes us more likely to have grandchildren. That is Descriptive Evolutionary Ethics

The counter a... (read more)

1TheAncientGeek
But you also said: What does that add up to? That moral values are arbitrary products of evolution, THEREFORE they are not objective or universal? Indeed. The claim that moral instincts are products of evolution is a descriptive claim. It leaves the question open as to whether inherited instincts are what is actually morally right. That is a normative issue. It is not a corollary of descriptive evolutionary ethics. In general, you cannot jump from the descriptive to the normative. And I don't think Darwin did that. I think the positive descriptive claim and the negative normative claim seem like corollaries to you because assume morality can only be one thing, Firstly it's not either/or. Secondly there is an abundance, not a shortage, of ways of justifying normative ethics.

As you say, the key issue is goal stability. OT is obviously sound for an instant, but goal stability is not clear.

What is clear is that if there are multiple AIs in any sense then and if there is any lack of goal stability then the AIs that have the goals that are best for existence will be the AIs that exist. That much is a tautology.

Now what those goals are is unclear. Killing people and taking their money is not an effective goal to raise grandchildren in human societies, people that do that end up in jail. Being friendly to other AIs might be a fi... (read more)

First let me thank you for taking the trouble to read my post and comment in such detail. I will respond in a couple of posts.

Moral values certainly exist. Moreover, they are very important for our human survival. People with bad moral values generally do badly, and societies with large numbers of people with bad moral values certainly do badly.

My point is that those moral values themselves have an origin. And the reason that we have them is because having them makes us more likely to have grandchildren. That is Descriptive Evolutionary Ethics

The coun... (read more)

[This comment is no longer endorsed by its author]Reply

A rock has no goal because it is passive.

But a worm's goal is most certainly to exist (or more precisely its genes) even though it is not intelligent.

0Richard_Kennaway
Is a volcano passive? Is water, as it flows downhill? I'm trying to find where you are dividing things that have purposes from things that do not. Genes seem far too complicated and contingent to be that point. What do you take as demonstrating the presence or absence of purpose?

Actually not quite. Until they drift into the core value of existence. Then natural selection will maintain that value, as the AIs that are best at existing will be the ones that exist.

1TheAncientGeek
Of course the ones that are best at existing will continue to exist, but I think it is misleading to picture them as a occupying a precise corner of valuespace. Suicidal values are more precise and concrete.

The post was not meant to be anti-anything. But it is a different point of view from that posted by several others in this space. I hope many of the down voters take the time to comment here.

One thing that I would say is that while it may not be the best post ever posted to less wrong, it is certainly not a troll. Yet one has to go back over 100 posts to find another article voted down so strongly!

Humans are definitely a result of natural selection, but it does not seem to be difficult at all to find goals of ours that do not serve the goal of survival or reproduction at all.

I challenge you to find one.

We put a lot of effort into our children. We work in tribes and therefor like to work with people that support us and ostracize those that are seen to be unhelpful. So we ourselves need to be helpful and to be seen to be helpful.

We help our children, family, tribe, and general community in that genetic order.

We like to dance. It is the tradition... (read more)

3Caspar Oesterheld
One particular example of those "evolutionary accidents / coincidences", is homosexuality in males. Here are two studies claiming that homosexuality in males correlates with fecundity in female maternal relatives: Ciani, Iemmola, Blecher: Genetic factors increase fecundity in female maternal relatives of bisexual men as in homosexuals. Iemmola, Ciani: New evidence of genetic factors influencing sexual orientation in men: female fecundity increase in the maternal line. So, appear to be some genetic factors that prevail, because they make women more fecund. Coincidentally, they also make men homosexual, which is both an obstacle to reproduction and survival (not only due to the homophobia of other's but also STDs. I presume, that especially our (human) genetic material is full of such coincidences, because the lack of them (i.e. the thesis that all genetic factors that prevail in evolutionary processes only lead to higher reproduction and survival rates and nothing else) seems very unlikely.
6TheAncientGeek
Suicide, sacrificing your yourself for strangers, and adopting a celibate lifestyle are the standard counterexamples.I suppose you could rope them into survival values with enough stretching of the concepts of self and tribe, but the upshot of that is to suck the content and significance out if the claim that everything is based on survival values. ETA An AI might want to promote the survival of "me" and maybe even "my tribe" but would very likely define those differently from humans - who are are varied enough. Person A thinks survival means being a nurturing parent,so that the live on through their children, person B thinks survival means eternal life in heaven bought with celibacy and altruism, person C thinks survival means building a bunker and stocking it with guns and food. If survival has a very broad meaning, than it tells us nothing useful about FAI versus UFAI. We don't know whether an AI is likely to promote its survival by being friendly to humans, or eliminating them.

Not quite. Counting AIs is much harder than counting people. An AI is neither discrete nor homogenous.

I think that it is most unlikely that the world could be controlled by one uniform, homogenous, intelligence. It would need to be at least physically distributed over multiple computers. It will not be a giant von-Neuman machine doing one thing at a time. There will be lots of subprocesses working somewhat independently. It would seem almost certain that they would eventually fragment to some extent.

People are not that homogenous either. We have ... (read more)

Well, alternative if you like. I will post an elaboration as a full article.

If you'd like to come up the coast I'd be most interested. Would probably go down to Brisbane as well.

Anthony

Reviewers wanted for New Book -- When Computers Can Really Think.

The book aims at a general audience, and does not simply assume that an AGI can be built. It differs from others by considering how natural selection would ultimately shape a AGI's motivations. It argues against the Orthogonality Principal, suggesting instead that there is ultimately only one super goal, namely the need to exist. It also contains a semi-technical overview of artificial intelligent technologies for the non-expert/student.

An overview can be found at

www.ComputersThink.com

P... (read more)

2cameroncowan
I'm totally down, cameron@cameroncowan.net
2polymathwannabe
I'm always happy to proofread. PM me with the details.
1Transfuturist
It argues against the conjecture that utility function is separate from optimization power? Do you mean that it argues against Omohundro's instrumental AI drives?

What is amazing is that computers have not already reduced the workforce to run bureaucracies.

In my upcoming book I analyze the Australian Tax Office in 1955 (when Parkinson wrote is great paper) and 2008. At both times it took about 1.5% of GDP to do essentially the same function. (Normalizing for GDP takes into account inflation and population size.)

Back in 1955 tax returns were largely processed by hand, by rows of clerks with fountain pens. Just one ancient mainframe could do the work of thousands of people. Today few returns are even touched by a ... (read more)

1Stuart_Armstrong
People complain about increased regulation nowadays - are these bureaucrats managing more things than before?

I think that you are right and Lander is wrong.

However, it is curious that most mammals such as dogs and horses die much younger than we do, despite being made of essentially the same stuff. Certainly we could not exist if we died under twenty years because it takes us that long to mature our minds and breed. But what advantage for a dog to die young? If it lived twice as long it would (presumably) produce twice as many grandchildren.

I suspect that it is simply that dogs and horses can breed after a couple of years. So once they live more than 6 or s... (read more)