Not sure if your're countersignaling, but if you aren't, why mention it?
Did the entire survey in the nick of time.
I'm very thankful for the humiliating experience of racking my brain to come up with plausible sounding reasons for why the answers to the calibration questions should be one thing or another, trying to lower my certainties so that I felt that surely I couldn't be falling for that old overconfidence bias again, finishing the survey, and looking up the answers on wikipedia afterwards. Now that we have ten widely different questions I really can't rationalize setting Russia as the fourth most populated country with 55% subjective certainty.
At least I got the darn norse god right.
I'd like:
Oh, we are really self-serving elitist overconfident pricks, aren't we?
As blame is a social construct that can be used to modify behavior and status, blame assignment can be a constructive way of preventing unwanted consequenses. At least in part.
And, as always, I vastly enjoy this first person perspective that makes the necessity of rationality so blatantly obvious. However, does a 80 percent certainty in "bonds go up" mean a 20 percent certainty in "bonds go down or stay the same"? Can there not be a pool of still undecided minutes left at the bottom of the anticipation barrel? I not, this mode of thinking clearly highlights one thing: If you are 95 percent certain that you turned of your oven, you are also 5 percent certain that you did not, which means that if you are bound for a vacation, 95 percent certainty in a turned off oven should probably be enough for you to check it again.
Sure is a little turbulent with up to fourteen voices all expressing their opinions and viewpoints. Don't know how anyone keeps it under proper control.
Yes! I would kill for one.
I can even experience a slight stroke of euphoric lunacy upon the shattering of my delusions. Somehow the world seems to burn brighter without the blurry lenses that biases provide.
By comparing a written self-evaluation and serotonin and dopamine levels in ones brain, perhaps?
Quite the contrary: Alcohol.
I'd consider partaking in the survey worthy of positive reinforcement, but I'd agree that the average karma award a bit out of proportion. Regardless I think it's a rather interesting phenomena to dislike getting karma.
Also I realized that my previous comment may have been unintentionally hostile. I mean, suppose that you indeed did countersignal, then my comment could be interpreted as a challenge to your genuinity. I hope it's clear that I intend to be game theoretically nice, but I'm really uncertain how to accomplish that in a such situation.