LESSWRONG
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All of adam demirel's Comments + Replies

Where to find Base Rates?
adam demirel10

Interesting. So let's say you wanted to minimise your risks of CHD as the OP mentioned - you would just go here and find out the highest correlates and trust them enough to base your whole gamble on?

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1Bucky
To be honest I'd just google that one but that didn't seem like very useful advice! My googling got me almost straight to this risk calculator used by NHS Scotland. Cross check this with a few other references from google and that's probably as good as anything I'd work out myself by going to the data - it's a well studied issue. ONS is useful for base rates where google fails me.
Where to find Base Rates?
adam demirel40

I totally agree with you that the reference class problem is a real problem, but having access to a process for quickly finding accurate base rates is still a problem.

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Taking vitamin D3 with K2 in the morning
adam demirel10

Do you have any data on how long the conversion takes?

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4ChristianKl
Unfortunately, I don't. I have opened a biology.SE question about the question of how long it takes till Vitamin D3 is biologically active a while ago.
Taking vitamin D3 with K2 in the morning
adam demirel10

What time did you take it? D3 is a strong cellular modulator of our clock genes https://www.vitamindcouncil.org/new-research-finds-activated-vitamin-d-regulates-genes-involved-in-the-circadian-rhythm/

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2ChristianKl
After reading a bit about Vitamin D3, I also thought that you can justify taking Vitamin D3 in the morning this way. I however had to rewrite my post because it doesn't seem to be as easy. The Wikipedia article used to suggest that cholecalciferol gets directly transformed into calcitriol but it seems it has to be converted to calcifediol first. This process takes time and as a result it's harder to make the argument about Vitamin D3 that you take (cholecalciferol) directly effecting the circadian rhythm.
Counterintuitive Comparative Advantage
adam demirel80

Interestingly, this fits with what Paul Graham replied to my email (about career advice) a while back:

I would choose whichever you find most interesting.
It's more important that you be excited about what
you're doing than which particular field you're working in.
Just ask yourself what would be cool, in an ambitious
way, to know more about.  --pg
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