ahartell

Replying toRepeal the Jones Act of 1920

Repeal the Jones Act of 1920

Thank you for this post and your work on the Jones Act!

Sorry this is my only further comment, but below are you conflating the reduction of cost for a barrel of oil vs a gallon of gas? There are 42 gallons in a barrel of crude oil, which google tells me corresponds to around 20 gallons of gas once refined.

Eliminating the Jones Act would have reduced average East Coast gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel prices by $0.63, $0.80, and $0.82 per barrel, respectively, during 2018–2019, with the largest price decreases occurring in the Lower Atlantic. The Gulf Coast gasoline price would increase by $0.30 per barrel. U.S. consumers’ surplus would increase by $769 million per year, and producers’ surplus would decrease by $367 million per year.

As in, the price of gasoline on the east coast would be $0.63 lower without the Jones Act. That’s insane. Can you imagine what voters would do if they realized they were paying that much extra for gas?

•••

Replying toCosmopolitan values don't come free

ahartell3y

Cosmopolitan values don't come free

Just noting the risk that the AIs could learn verifiable cooperation/coordination rather than kindness. This would probably be incentivized by the training ("you don't profit from being nice to a cooperate-rock"), and could easily cut humans out of the trades that AI make with one another.

ahartell3yQuick Take

Does this create a shortform feed?

It does! Alright I'll leave this here because I think it will make me more likely to start using this feature.

ahartell's Shortform

ahartell

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Replying toNew: use The Nonlinear Library to listen to the top LessWrong posts of all time

ahartell4y

New: use The Nonlinear Library to listen to the top LessWrong posts of all time

I've enjoyed listening to Nonlinear Library for recent posts.

Something that would really improve my experience would be for links to the original to be included in the description section of each "episode".

Replying toOn clinging

ahartell5y

On clinging

Indeed, before dismissing it entirely, one would presumably want an account of why it features so prominently in our mental and social lives.

One aspect to this seems to be that clinging is a mechanism by which a portion of the network maintains its own activation. Given evolutionary dynamics, it's unsurprising to see widespread greediness and self-recommendation among neurons/neural structures (cf Neurons Gone Wild).

Replying toEA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until Feb. 7th

ahartell7y

EA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until Feb. 7th

Thanks, fixed!

Endorsed.

In addition to safety and contact, another dynamic was that I was generally not S1 expecting much value to come out of Dragon Army, so chafing more within the system seemed like pain, effort, and time spent for little expected gain.

Stag hunts, anyone?

Edit: Though, I will note that it can be hard to find the space between "I'm damaging the group by excluding my optimization power from the process" and "I'm being a Red Knight here and should be game for whatever the commander decides." It may seem like the obvious split is "expressive in discussion and game in the field" but discussion time is actually really valuable. So it seems like... (read more)

Many of the Dragons who stepped into the role of the Ghost for a time did so softly and gradually, and it never felt like this level of absence was Notably Different from the previous level, in a paradox-of-the-heap sort of way. Set a bar, and set a gradient around that bar, and stay in contact.

As the person who fell most heavily into this role, the above resonates a lot. Below are some other thoughts on my experience.

I had the sense early on that I wasn't getting very much value out of group activities, and felt not very connected to the house. In this way I think "Black Knight"-style considerations were major... (read 457 more words →)

Replying toContra double crux

ahartell8y

Contra double crux

[These don't seem like cruxes to me, but are places where our models differ.]

[...]
a crux for some belief B is another belief C which if one changed one's mind about C, one would change one's mind about B.
[...]
A double crux is a particular case where two people disagree over B and have the same crux, albeit going in opposite directions. Say if Xenia believes B (because she believes C) and Yevgeny disbelieves B (because he does not believe C), then if Xenia stopped believing C, she would stop believing B (and thus agree with Yevgeny) and vice-versa.
[...]
Across most reasonable people on most recondite topics, 'cruxes' are rare, and 'double cruxes' (roughly)

... (read more)

Replying toTensions in Truthseeking

ahartell8y

Tensions in Truthseeking

[Note: This comment seems pretty pedantic in retrospect. Posting anyway to gauge reception, and because I'd still prefer clarity.]

On honest businesses, I'd expect successful ones to involve overconfidence on average because of winner's curse.

I'm having trouble understanding this application of winner's curse.

Are you saying something like the following:

People put in more resources and generally try harder when they estimate a higher chance of success. (Analogous to people bidding more in an auction when they estimate a higher value.)
These actions increase the chance of success, so overconfident people are overrepresented among successes.
This overrepresentation holds even if the "true chance of success" is the main factor. Overconfidence of founders just needs

ahartell

13y

Kim Suozzi was a neuroscience student with brain cancer who wanted to be cryonically preserved but lacked the funds. She appealed to reddit and a foundation was set up, called the Society for Venturism. Enough money was raised, and when she died on the January 17th, she was preserved by Alcor.

I wasn't sure if I should post about this, but I was glad to see that enough money was raised and it was discussed on LessWrong here, here, and here.

Source

Edit: It looks like Alcor actually worked with her to lower the costs, and waived some of the fees.

Edit 2: The Society for Venturism has been around for a while, and wasn't set up just for her.

How do I "test it"?

ahartell

14y

I've read a bunch of times on LessWrong about how important is to test things. It makes sure your beliefs are paying rent and helps you verify your hypotheses. Testing ideas is obviously important to science, and it's about as obvious that testing ideas in everyday life can serve the same purpose. I know all this, and I want to be the type of person that goes out and verifies my beliefs by experiment, but still I can't think of a single time I've done it. I don't think I even recall thinking, about some everyday type of thing, "hmm how could test that?" (apart from trivial trial-error computer related things). Anyway, I was wondering if some of the you could give me some examples of times you've done this. I'm thinking maybe I'll be able to pattern-match the kind of things you guys have done and hopefully recognize in the moment when I'm looking at a testable thought.

Thanks.

[Help] Critique my Admissions Essay on HPMoR

ahartell

14y

I mentioned this last week in the open thread and yesterday decided to write it. Since a few people on the site helped me choose this topic and the content is relevant to the site, I thought it would be nice to see what everyone thinks. If a change is suggested that I like I will edit the post. Sorry if I don't implement what may seem to you like an obvious change. I'd like to keep the style as close to mine as possible.

The prompt was to describe a fictional character that influenced you and to describe that influence in 250-500 words.

Below is the Rot13 version of the submitted essay.

Ba snasvpgvba.arg,

... (read 454 more words →)

119

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

[Help] Critique my Admissions Essay on HPMoR

How do I "test it"?

ahartell's Shortform

ahartell

ahartell

ahartell's Shortform

Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

How do I "test it"?

[Help] Critique my Admissions Essay on HPMoR

ahartell

Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

[Help] Critique my Admissions Essay on HPMoR

How do I "test it"?

ahartell's Shortform

ahartell

ahartell

ahartell's Shortform

Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)

How do I "test it"?

[Help] Critique my Admissions Essay on HPMoR