There is an issue of definition here. Categories of scenario exist where it is unclear if they constitute an "AI takeover" even though there is recognition of a real and likely risk of some type. Almost everyone stakes out positions at binary extremes of outcome, good or bad, without much consideration for plausible quasi-equilibrium states in the middle that fall out of some risk models. For researchers working in the latter camp, it will feel a bit like a false dichotomy.
As another heuristic, the inability to arrive at a common set of elementa...
An example of a 10+(!) year technology lead is computational discrete topology. Every large-scale geospatial, graph, et al analysis system is based on it — you can’t build one without it — but there is virtually no literature on how it works and a practical expression of the theory is robustly non-obvious. The same few people continue research and design every kernel for companies/governments. AGI and autonomous systems specifically drive much demand for this tech currently, since it is needed to reason about relationships/behaviors in...
Regarding divestment, *who* owns equity can materially affect value independent of transacted price because other equity owners adjust the models of their long-term position value based on this information. This is reflected in concepts such as "dead equity" (implied dilution risk) in small companies and the notional-only value of founder equity in big public companies e.g. Bezos.
Regarding index funds, the (anti-)correlations are much more complex and less obvious, particularly in the modern globalized economy, than classic diversification and r... (read more)