All of Andrew Rogers's Comments + Replies

Regarding divestment, *who* owns equity can materially affect value independent of transacted price because other equity owners adjust the models of their long-term position value based on this information. This is reflected in concepts such as "dead equity" (implied dilution risk) in small companies and the notional-only value of founder equity in big public companies e.g. Bezos.

Regarding index funds, the (anti-)correlations are much more complex and less obvious, particularly in the modern globalized economy, than classic diversification and r... (read more)

1ffolgueiro
Andrew, I've never heard this emerging school of thought you name and I'm interested in it. Do you have any link or author you can name? Thanks in advance!

There is an issue of definition here. Categories of scenario exist where it is unclear if they constitute an "AI takeover" even though there is recognition of a real and likely risk of some type. Almost everyone stakes out positions at binary extremes of outcome, good or bad, without much consideration for plausible quasi-equilibrium states in the middle that fall out of some risk models. For researchers working in the latter camp, it will feel a bit like a false dichotomy.

As another heuristic, the inability to arrive at a common set of elementa... (read more)

Answer by Andrew Rogers60

An example of a 10+(!) year technology lead is computational discrete topology. Every large-scale geospatial, graph, et al analysis system is based on it — you can’t build one without it — but there is virtually no literature on how it works and a practical expression of the theory is robustly non-obvious. The same few people continue research and design every kernel for companies/governments. AGI and autonomous systems specifically drive much demand for this tech currently, since it is needed to reason about relationships/behaviors in... (read more)

1George3d6
Seems untrue to me, and I've benchmarked dozens of databases for dozens of problems. In the column-store space (optimized for aggregate analytics... distributed execution of aggrgated queries, quick filtering based on ordering and data compression) Clickhouse is the best there is in my experience... I made that point 4 years ago, but now you can find plenty of other benchmarks for it. It's used by many large scale search engines and advertisers except google, and among others, by CERN. In wide column storage space, and more broadly in the "heavy filtering, large amounts of data space" cassandra (, facebook) and now Scylla seem to lead. I've never had to put dozens of petabytes in a database, but the few people that do need this seem to agree. In the transactional space I haven't seen anyone bring a significant gain over postgres and mariadb yet. Kv store and in memory caching you have aerospike, rocksdb and stuff that's based on tikv more recently... All slightly different trade-offs, all open source. I'm not even aware of proprietary products here to be honest. Those 4 combined cover most use cases a db has. So, not saying I'm convinced I'm correct, but could you provide some examples to back up your claims ? Name some names, or, ideally, provide some uecases/domain where one could find benchmarks that demonstrate a proprietary database gas the upper hand.