Thank you for this post. You very elegantly laid out a scenario that has been swirling in my head, and I think I updated the probabilities of this scenario as more likely after reading your post.
Your post also strengthen my desire to pivot from finance to policy. I need to figure out how to do this. I find it paramount that more people (both in power and in the general populace) understand the possibility of massive economic disruption.
I look forward to the follow-ups of this post.
Thank you for your post. I've been looking for posts like this all over the internet that get my mind racing about the possibilities of the near future.
I think the AI discussion suffers from definitional problems. I think when most people talk about money not mattering when AGI arrives (myself included), we tend to define AGI as something closer to this:
"one single AI system doing all economic planning."
While your world model makes a lot of sense, I don't think the dystopian scenario you envision would include me in the "capital class". I don't have the we...
One example of what I am talking about is the middle chapters of the book Genesis, where it discusses applications of AI in military and general governance.
I don't necessarily agree with the book's predictions, but it really got me thinking of a near term pre-AGI world.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/19/henry-kissinger-ai-book-released
Someone recommended I create the community, maybe I will in the new year.
I would say very low?
I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely):
1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only starte...
Hunterbrook just came out with a piece alleging the damage at Spruce Pine is catastrophic:
https://hntrbrk.com/essential-node-in-global-semiconductor-supply-chain-hit-by-hurricane-helene-video-reveals-entrance-to-mine-has-flooded/
I am with you, I have been trying to find more sources to see if semiconductor-grade quartz if being produced in places like Norway and Brazil, where deposits of high purity quartz are found. But from the research I have done, it seems that roughly 90% of semiconductor-grade quartz produced today is produce at Spruce Pine. Please let me know if you find any sources that say the contrary (I hope I am wrong honestly).
With respects to road disruptions, I agree. If it's a matter of national security, stakeholders will do whatever is necessary to ensure the mat...
I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them.
If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell.
By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.
This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.
"If there is a new world order - AI or something else changes everything - and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start."
This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetim...
This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.
Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place.
But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened.
https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.html
Not sure why this wasn't looked any further.
I found the perfect hedge:
I bet $5,000 to win $33,500 that the following Metaculus question resolves YES https://metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/…
Bet is voided if resolution is ambiguous.
New Omicron market on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/market/will-at-least-10pct-of-us-covid-19-cases-be-from-the-omicron-variant-on-january-1-2022
Thank you.
I am inferring that your investing portfolio is 100% in equities and equity derivatives, and it seems that quite a bit of it is in high beta stuff.
So you combine high beta with derivatives (leverage), and you get a great combination of risk that in the 22 months that you've invested paid off quite handsomely.
Congratulations, your ability / willingness to bear risk combined with timing has worked. I hope we get to see future updates on your strategy.
Can we get a snapshot of your portfolio?
I am interested in seeing what you hold / held to assess your risk adjusted return.
You started investing at a time where virtually all real assets beat their mean averages substantially. It was quite difficult to lose money investing in capital markets if you bought in January 2020 and held until today.
Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?
Has anyone found a good explanation as to why cases decline so rapidly in places where the Delta variant took over?
Any reason why not use your reasoning and expertise to put skin in the game? Polymarket has a couple of markets such as this one:
Previous suggestion on LessWrong suggests that savy uses of PolyMarket don't do that. They would create a Yes/No share pair and then sell the No for a few of 2% of $0.09.
This is true. Polymarket has a couple of tricks to save on fees.
I don't think that's the case. Having access to an accurate probability about whether the Olympics will tell local hotels about how important it is to have a lot of beds available. It will tell AirBnB whether it makes sense to run ad campaings to get people to rent out their homes for hosting tourists that come for the Olympics.
I agree with you. Didn't really think of this to be honest!
The problem with doing it on the Ethereum network is gas fees. Even with super low gas fees (~$3), this strategy would cost over$100 to implement.
I agree that doing this on Polygon / Matic is not ideal, as it is a sidechain / quasi L2 solution that sacrifices decentralization for speed and cost, but for illustration purposes, it works.
It takes ~40 mins to bridge Ethereum from the Matic network to the Ethereum mainnet,
Yes it does.