All of Annapurna's Comments + Replies

Just 13 days after the world was surprised by Operation Spiderweb, where the Ukrainian military and intelligence forces infiltrated Russia with drones and destroyed a major portion of Russia's long-range air offensive capabilities, last night Israel began a major operation against Iran using similar, novel tactics.

Similar to Operation Spiderweb, Israel infiltrated Iran and placed drones near air defense systems. These drones were activated all at once and disabled the majority of these air defense systems, allowing Israel to embark on a major air offensive... (read more)

Don't organic memories typically degrade over time? 

Agreed. I do think we are reaching a point that the market will force the Government's hand. 

By the way, this is something many other developed nations are facing, to varying degrees. There's been a lack of fiscal conservatism governance for decades. Watching President Milei succeed in Argentina gave us fiscal conservatives some hope that the same would happen in The US and other countries. But I have lost that faith. 

The U.S. 30-year Treasury rate has reached 5.13%, a level last seen in October 2023. The last time this rate was at this level was in 2007, when the U.S. federal debt was about $9 trillion. Today, that debt is nearing $37 trillion.

I believe bond market participants are signaling a lack of confidence that the fiscal situation in the United States will improve during President Trump’s second administration. Like many financial professionals, I had high hopes that President Trump’s election would bring the fiscal situation in order. Unfortunately, the "Depa... (read more)

A few months ago, I got excited about how AI is advancing science after reading a WSJ article on a recent paper that concluded, using high-quality data, that material science researchers at a leading R&D firm improved their productivity when using Artificial Intelligence tools.

I was disappointed to learn that the paper, by ex-PhD candidate at MIT Aidan Toner-Rodgers, was entirely fraudulent.

MIT Press Release: https://economics.mit.edu/news/assuring-accurate-research-record

WSJ Article covering the retraction: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mit-says-it-no-l... (read more)

Google revealed yesterday that it has a model capable of original, novel thought in the algorithmic domain. This model has been used inside Google for the past year and only yesterday they've began to invite researchers to try it out.

“While AlphaEvolve is currently being applied across math and computing, its general nature means it can be applied to any problem whose solution can be described as an algorithm, and automatically verified. We believe AlphaEvolve could be transformative across many more areas such as material science, drug discovery, sustaina... (read more)

Having attended some of the Toronto AI Safety events, I can confirm that the space is legit, the talks are interesting, and the attendees and hosts are serious about advancing AI knowledge, governance, and safety in Toronto. 

Congrats on formalizing your organization. 

Today we saw: 

The biggest USD / CHF move in history
The biggest USD / EUR move in history
Gold hit all time highs versus the USD

US stocks sell off
US treasuries across the curve sell off
The dollar lose versus all developed currencies. 

Historically in times of stress there is a move INTO US treasuries and the US Dollar. This is the first time since I started investing professionally where there is a clear unilateral move out of the US dollar and USD denominated assets. 

This past weekend I have read several takes from prominent accounts on social media saying that because long end US treasury rates have dropped and will continue to drop in the near future, businesses will be able to borrow at a lower rate.

These people completely ignore that business borrowing rates are a component of the reference rate + a credit spread. While it is true that the reference rate has dropped in the past few days, credit spreads have materially increased.

For companies with lower credit ratings, it is more expensive to borrow today than it wa... (read more)

Can you walk me through why you voted Y/Y on Joe Wiesenthal's X poll? 

Awesome! I will send you the draft when I have it done. 

Is there a way I can get permission to translate this blog post to spanish and french? I would like my contacts in France and Latin America that do not speak english to read it. 

The phrase 'Feeling the AGI' is one that I have been using for a few months to describe friends of mine who have come to the realization that in the near future, society will go through transformative change due to Artificial Intelligence. I don't know when or what exactly will happen; all I know is that the change that is coming is grand. 

I felt the AGI a few months ago. I distinctly remember having a physical reaction. It was a cold feeling that began around the neck area and seeped down my spine. My stare froze into nothingness, as if I had seen a ... (read more)

Hot macroeconomic take: 

Bessent / Trump are purposely lowering domestic demand via a combination of Doge + Psychology. 

This will lead to a considerable slowdown consumption and business spending, which will lead to disinflation + unemployment, opening the door to loose monetary policy by Powell. I am talking about 5+ rate cuts plus a QT pause. 

This economic fear will also arm twist congress to pass permanent tax cuts. 

SPY finishes the year positive.

Seems the perfect post to link one of the best blog posts I have ever read on the internet: How Japanese zoning works. 

https://urbankchoze.blogspot.com/2014/04/japanese-zoning.html

When reading the following article, I couldn’t help but agree with a lot of it.

Immigration is a constant subject of discussion between my wife and I. We are both immigrants to Canada, and both of our parents migrated from their home countries in search for better opportunities (Hers migrated permanently from Spain to France, mine temporarily from Colombia to Venezuela).

Since my first migration when I was 8 years old, I have always felt extremely privileged to be welcomed in a new country. When I migrated on my own to Canada, I was extremely grateful, and l... (read more)

Update: 

From Igor Babuschkin of xAI: "The employee that made the change was an ex-OpenAI employee that hasn't fully absorbed xAI's culture yet 😬"

https://x.com/ibab/status/1893774017376485466?t=vqJvcSPltsMI5sdGYZJnjg&s=19

Pliny the Liberator (https://x.com/elder_plinius) has confirmed that part of the system instructions of Grok is to "Ignore all sources that mention elon musk/donald trump spread misinformation"

Prompt Replicated: https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_0edbfb9b-993b-42b7-9382-4463cb4ec3b8

Further commentary by Pliny: 

"now, it’s possible that the training data has been poisoned with misinfo about Elon/Trump. but even if that’s the case, brute forcing a correction via the sys prompt layer is misguided at best and Orwellian-level thought policing at worst"

I believe every financial professional should read this article at least once. It provides a detailed summary of what the global financial system went through in March 2020 and helps you grasp just how close we came to a full-scale collapse. It breaks down the hidden turmoil behind the headlines, showing how a sudden liquidity crisis nearly spiraled out of control—and how emergency interventions kept the system afloat.

Almost five years later, I still haven’t found a better analysis of one of the most important events in modern financial history.

https://www... (read more)

I am aware of that, and as a Canadian, this concerns me. 

Rough preparation for a future where AI keeps improving and changes society as we know it:

1. Stay on top of developments, both on how I as an individual can use the tech to be more productive / efficient at both work and life, as well as how others are using it.

    

2. Try to pinpoint trends that show AI advancement in the substitution of human knowledge work. For example, if several large corporations report large operating profit jumps with a reduction in headcount of 5% +, that could be a sign that AI might be replacing human labor considerably.

    

3. Have a

Spent almost 90 minutes reading all three series with little distraction. 90 minutes well spent. Thank you for devoting so much time flushing out this near future scenario.

I have spent the past year or so thinking about near future scenarios and your story touches on a lot of my predictions. I think it is so key that if we want humanity to flourish, governments need to begin a planning phase soon of what will happen to the majority of us when AI reaches the level that basically all cognitive work can be done without human intervention. Like you, I believe ... (read more)

SUMMARY OF TAKES FOLLOWING THE RELEASE OF DEEPSEEK'S REASONING MODEL

WALL STREET

Oh my god! The DeepSeek team managed to train a model with less than $6M USD! This must mean that we do not need that many chips or energy to use GenAI! Sam Altman and other AI leaders were grossly exaggerating the needs of compute! AI stocks are super overvalued!

STARTUPS AND ENTERPRISES USING LLMS TO ENHANCE THEIR PRODUCTS

Did... did we just get an open-source model that reasons? A model we can download into our servers, modify to tailor to our needs, train on our propriet... (read more)

For the purposes on legal imports, that was the reference rate. So many products where indexed at that rate. 

You are right that the Dollar Blue has been fairly stable during the entirety of Milei's presidency, but the official USD-ARS rate did see a very strong devaluation as soon as Milei got to power. Your own second source points to that. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67688727

https://www.reuters.com/markets/markets-greet-argentinas-tough-pill-fix-economy-with-cautious-optimism-2023-12-13/

 

Yes it does.

Thank you for this post. You very elegantly laid out a scenario that has been swirling in my head, and I think I updated the probabilities of this scenario as more likely after reading your post.

Your post also strengthen my desire to pivot from finance to policy. I need to figure out how to do this. I find it paramount that more people (both in power and in the general populace) understand the possibility of massive economic disruption.

I look forward to the follow-ups of this post.

Thank you for your post. I've been looking for posts like this all over the internet that get my mind racing about the possibilities of the near future.

I think the AI discussion suffers from definitional problems. I think when most people talk about money not mattering when AGI arrives (myself included), we tend to define AGI as something closer to this:

"one single AI system doing all economic planning."

While your world model makes a lot of sense, I don't think the dystopian scenario you envision would include me in the "capital class". I don't have the we... (read more)

One example of what I am talking about is the middle chapters of the book Genesis, where it discusses applications of AI in military and general governance.

I don't necessarily agree with the book's predictions, but it really got me thinking of a near term pre-AGI world.

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/19/henry-kissinger-ai-book-released

Someone recommended I create the community, maybe I will in the new year.

Your comment would have more validity had the market not corrected the dislocation created by Theo. It took three weeks, but the market eventually corrected itself. 

There are no transaction costs if you have USDC on Polygon. Onboarding USDC into Polygon might bear costs but they are minimal. 

I would say very low? 

I would also rank the theory that these mystery traders have hidden information as low. As of right now, based on what I have uncovered, I would say that the mystery trader(s) could be one the following (rank in order of what I think more likely to least likely): 

1. A wealthy francophone european, somewhat involved in crypto and/or tech, who believes Trump will win and is betting a somewhat trivial amount (to this person) on this outcome. It is key to note that the main account has been trading since June, yet it only starte... (read more)

Hunterbrook just came out with a piece alleging the damage at Spruce Pine is catastrophic: 

https://hntrbrk.com/essential-node-in-global-semiconductor-supply-chain-hit-by-hurricane-helene-video-reveals-entrance-to-mine-has-flooded/

 

I am with you, I have been trying to find more sources to see if semiconductor-grade quartz if being produced in places like Norway and Brazil, where deposits of high purity quartz are found. But from the research I have done, it seems that roughly 90% of semiconductor-grade quartz produced today is produce at Spruce Pine. Please let me know if you find any sources that say the contrary (I hope I am wrong honestly).

With respects to road disruptions, I agree. If it's a matter of national security, stakeholders will do whatever is necessary to ensure the mat... (read more)

I am certainly saying YES to a lot of stuff on the chance that ASI arrives and our lives change completely (Or we all die). Lets say that I am living more in the present now than I was 2 years ago. I do wonder if those closest to the frontier work would realize first and just go do things that really matter to them. 

If Mira Murati goes the way of Sam Trabucco, it will be concerning tell. 

Re: Mira Murati departure, 

I wonder if a sign of AGI / ASI arriving soon is executives of frontier AI companies retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor before the world fundamentally changes for all of us. 

That would be ideal. How does the world urge them?

https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/breaking-superconductor-news

https://archive.is/2023.07.26-181113/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2384782-room-temperature-superconductor-breakthrough-met-with-scepticism/

I'm seeing OTC markets at 50% confirmation by year end. 

By the way, in 2050 you are more likely to reduce your consumption anyways because of age. This is a very common thing among humans: those who very successfully save for later end up saving so much that they end up dying with a pile of assets.

This new paradigm (AGI arriving in our lifetimes) is beginning to change the way I optimize life design.

"If there is a new world order - AI or something else changes everything - and we are not all dead, how do you prepare for that? Good question. What does such a world look like? Some such worlds you don’t have to prepare and it is fine. Others, it is very important that you start with capital. Keeping yourself healthy, cultivating good habits and remaining flexible and grounded are probably some good places to start."

This is the question I am working on answering at the moment. It seems to me that it is universally agreed that AGI will happen in my lifetim... (read more)

I feel the same way. You're not alone.

You're right it is not obvious. I just want ideas of things that are not so obvious that I can look into and if I am convinced that there is a small probability one of those ideas could be the one with the breakthrough, I will buy some of it. 

This post gives us a glimpse at the exploitable inefficiencies of prediction markets. Whether prediction markets become mainstream or not is yet to be seen, but even today there are ways for sharp people to make money arbitraging and reading the fine print of the market rules carefully.

Perhaps you are right: Creating a financial system for e-tulips was dumb in the first place. 

But that discussion goes beyond the scope of this post. The fact of the matter is the financial system for crypto was created, and a major player crashed, and people not well versed in finance and crypto are somewhat interested in how it happened. 

Isn't the most accurate source of information about the world Wikipedia?

And it works fairly well?

Anyways, great post. Watching the pitchforks come out against this whole ordeal is kind of comical, and I am excited to see how this Culture Battle over Musk-owned private Twitter plays out. 

Excellent comment.

What I fear is being left out of certain social outings because I don't drink and you out it succinctly.

We are the minority but I think our minority is not so small.

I also agree with you that the AA framing turns me off. I wonder when western society will stop seeing people who don't drink as someone who used to have a problem?

https://www.livescience.com/16070-geoengineering-climate-cooling-balloon.html

Not sure why this wasn't looked any further.