LESSWRONG
LW

All of ArthurDenture's Comments + Replies

2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey
ArthurDenture110

If you can answer correctly more statistical questions, how is that not being 'better at statistical reasoning'?

Those are related abilities, but there's being able to answer specific questions and then there's being able to apply what you've learned more generally. For me, this particular question triggered more "aha! I've seen this one before!" than it triggered statistical thought. A correct answer to the question might give you a smidgen of information on whether the answerer can reason about statistics, but it probably gives you a lot more... (read more)

Reply
2012 Less Wrong Census/Survey
ArthurDenture230

Took the survey.

I hope this question isn't used the way I worry it will be used:

CFAR Question 3

A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital, about 45 babies are born each day. In the smaller one, about 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of girls is about 50%, the actual proportion at either hospital may be greater or less on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were girls?

This question was easy for me to answer by patte... (read more)

Reply
0AnthonyC
I have not read Thinking Fast and Slow, but the answer to this follows directly from binomial probability distributions, which (at least in NY) were part of the 11th grade math curriculum as of 2004. That doesn't mean most people will notice the connection, but technically they've been exposed to all the necessary information to solve it.
6A1987dM
BTW, I had seen the CFAR Question 1 before.
9MixedNuts
Intuitive answer: Picture a horizontal line and points scattered around it. If there are many points, the line will be dark and there'll be a cloud around it. If there are few points, you'll get a vague shape and it won't be easy to tell where the line originally was. Rigorous answer: print [ len(filter(lambda x: x > 0.6 *per_day, [ sum([ randint(0,1) for birth in range(0, per_day) ]) for day in range(0, 365) ])) for per_day in (15, 45) ] Thoughtful answer: Why would I bother thinking? Fetch me an apple. Edit: For copulation's sake, whose kneecaps do I have to break to make Markdown leave my indentation the Christian Underworld alone, and who wrote those filthy blatant lies masquerading as comment formatting help?
9gwern
I don't understand the distinction you are making here. If you can answer correctly more statistical questions, how is that not being 'better at statistical reasoning'? Every area of thought draws heavily on memorization and caching.