Great post! I agree with a lot of the reasoning and am also quite worried about insufficient preparedness for short timelines.
On security, you say:
Model weights (and IP) are secure: By this, I mean SL4 or higher...
I think it's worth explicitly stating that if AI companies only manage to achieve SL4, we should expect OC5 actors to successfully steal model weights, conditional on them deciding it's a top-level priority for them to do so.
However, this implication doesn't really jive with the rest of your comments regarding security and the amount o... (read more)
Great post! I agree with a lot of the reasoning and am also quite worried about insufficient preparedness for short timelines.
On security, you say:
I think it's worth explicitly stating that if AI companies only manage to achieve SL4, we should expect OC5 actors to successfully steal model weights, conditional on them deciding it's a top-level priority for them to do so.
However, this implication doesn't really jive with the rest of your comments regarding security and the amount o... (read more)