All of Agrippa Kellum's Comments + Replies

By $2 bet at 66% odds, I mean that the Yes position costs $2*66% and the No position costs $2*34%.

You're right that "max wager" is meant to be maximum loss. I think you're picking up on the fact that I made a mistake in calculating loss for each player. I was calculating the potential loss for "$2 bet at 66%" as 2 dollars for both players, but that's obviously wrong, and no reason afaik that the players should have the same maximum loss. Thanks for the observation.


I don't understand your observation about the incent... (read more)

3Dagon
In fact, I misunderstood your proposal - I am incorrect in saying that lying helps. You'd get more bets on the same side as your "good" bets, but at unfavorable payouts so you'd lose too much when you lose.

I like your summary of the method. Good point as well. Perhaps you would want a norm that players don't discuss their maximum bets before entering them.

I'm not familiar with the Kelly Criterion so I'll check that out.

2Bucky
Zvi made a reference post to the Kelly Criterion a while back which might be a good starting point.