You could use things like being able to outperform the market, being consistently ahead of the Overton window, finding a reception for your less objectively verifiable ideas among (a small group of) other high-performing individuals. This doesn't guarantee that you're not still a lizardman among the 99.9%+ lizardmen, just in a high-performing contrarian cluster (hence my rule #1), but at least rules out being a crazy person living in a normal world (unless you're just hallucinating all of the evidence, but there's no point worrying about that).
Sorry for being unclear. I meant producers of those commodities, except for uranium for which I also have some exposure to the commodity itself.
If you spend any time following stock touts on twitter / stock picking forums etc you will see these people quickly.
The people I follow generally don't advertise their track record? For the hedge fund manager I mentioned, I had to certify that I'm an accredited investor and sign up for his fund letters to get his past returns. For the ones that do, e.g., paid services on SeekingAlpha that advertise past returns, it has not been my experience that they "then fail to do so out of sample" (at least the ones that passed my filter of being worth subscribing ...
Without even checking, I can think of a bunch of assets which 7x'ed since Jan 2020. (BTC/general crypto, TSLA, GME/AMC etc).
I figured that's the first thing someone would think of upon hearing "7x" which is why I mentioned "This was done using a variety of strategies across a large number of individual names" in the OP. Just to further clarify, I have some exposure to crypto but I'm not counting it for this post, I bought some TSLA puts (forgot whether I made a profit overall), and didn't touch AMC. I had a 0.1% exposure to some GME calls which went to ...
1 in 5 isn't especially strong evidence.
I agree this isn't a very strong argument. I think theoretically we can probably get a much tighter probability bound than 20% by looking directly at the variance of my strategy, and concluding that given that variance, the probability of getting 600% return by chance (assuming expected return = market return) is <p for some smaller p. But in practice I'm not sure how to compute this variance. Intuitively I can point to the fact that my portfolios did not have very high leverage/beta, nor did I put everything i...
Without even checking, I can think of a bunch of assets which 7x'ed since Jan 2020. (BTC/general crypto, TSLA, GME/AMC etc). So yes, I agree this depends on the portfolio you ran.
Personally, I have seen enough people claiming to outperform, but then fail to do so out of sample. (I mean, out of sample for me, not for them) for me to doubt any claim on the internet without a trading record.
Either way, I think it's very hard to convince me with just ~1.5 years of evidence that you have edge. I think if you showed me ~1k trades with some sensible risk parameters at all times, then I could be convinced. (Or if in another year and a half you have $300mm because you've managed to 7x your small HF AUM, I will be convinced).
I currently have ~100 positions spread across: uranium, copper, lithium, oil, fertilizer, shipping, Nvidia Google Microsoft Baidu (hedge against short AI timeline), a basket of SPAC/deSPAC commons&warrants (which I bought after the SPAC sector became severely depressed), individual "value stocks" and "special situations" in various other sectors. Most of these were entered within the last few months, and my portfolio looked pretty different before that, but I can't really talk about what I was doing before without risking de-anonymizing myself.
The efficient markets model says that any strategy during this period had expected return of 50%.
Wait, I think this is wrong. It actually says that any beta 1 strategy had the same expected return as the market as a whole. If my portfolio had a beta of 2, for example, either by using leverage or by buying only high beta stocks, then my expected return would be double that of the market.
I wish I could say that I kept my portfolio's beta at or below 1 at all times, which would make the reasoning easier, but I did sometimes trade derivatives that arguably ...
I recommend looking at commentators as a source of data, but doing your best to not believe anything that could reasonably be classified as an opinion rather than a fact. That includes opinions about what topics deserve attention.
This must be the biggest disagreement between us. I think I couldn't possibly have gotten the return that I did if I had followed this advice, especially the latter part about what deserves attention. Can you say more about why you think this?
ETA: Aside from the fact that it seems to have worked in practice, my theory is that i...
Seems a good idea. Thanks for the question.
See also this Twitter thread for some additional insights into this story. Given the politically sensitive nature of the topic, it may not be a great idea to discuss it much further on this platform, as that could further antagonize various camps interested in AI, among other potential negative consequences.
Hacker News discussion about why Margaret Mitchell was fired. Or see this NYT story:
...Google confirmed that her employment had been terminated. “After conducting a review of this manager’s conduct, we confirmed that there were multiple violations of our code of conduct,” read a statement from the company.
The statement went on to claim that Dr. Mitchell had violated the company’s security policies by lifting confidential documents and private employee data from the Google network. The company said previously that Dr. Mitchell had tried to remove such files,
See also this Twitter thread for some additional insights into this story. Given the politically sensitive nature of the topic, it may not be a great idea to discuss it much further on this platform, as that could further antagonize various camps interested in AI, among other potential negative consequences.
One relatively easy and low-cost idea: buy some physical Bitcoin and/or gold, hide them somewhere, and hedge them with short positions (in Bitcoin futures and/or gold ETFs) if you don't want to be too exposed to their price movements. It's probably a good idea to have some exposure to them anyway as a hedge against inflation. And in case it's not clear, physical Bitcoin means on a hardware wallet that you can easily hide and carry with you when you need to move.
Ah, I think you're right. It seems like they want an "ethnic studies" version of everything and students have to take at least one ethnic studies course per year. I'm not a huge fan of that and it seems like it is taking some well-deserved criticism.
FYI, there is virtually no criticism within the city / school district itself, because (1) it's too progressive / left-leaning and (2) anyone who does offer criticism gets labeled as "racist" or "white supremacist", even if the critic isn't white. (Look up "internalized oppression" if you're not already fami
...The curriculum isn't mandatory
I believe this is a mis-reporting, or talking about part of the curriculum. See pages 27 and 28 of this presentation:
We believe that all courses should incorporate Ethnic Studies curriculum, however at a minimum, students should participate in 4-5 ethnic studies classes in high school, i.e., a minimum of 1 ethnic studies course per year. [...]
A graduation requirement is a way to ensure that Ethnic Studies classes reach all students.
This sounds unlikely, uncharitable, and frankly more than a little conspiratorial. I'm not even sure if this is something most social justice advocates would even want.
It's already happening IRL. See this Reason article:
...The district has proposed a new social justice-infused curriculum that would focus on "power and oppression" and "history of resistance and liberation" within the field of mathematics. [...]
If adopted, its ideas will be included in existing math classes as part of the district's broader effort to infuse ethnic studies into all subjects
Can you explain why "the only measure available is indeed the ordinary amplitude-squared measure"?
Also, I'm confused about this:
Continuity: If you prefer |A> to |B> and |B> to |C>, there's some quantum-mechanical measure (note that this is a change from "probability") X such that you're indifferent between (1-X)|A> + X|C> and |B>.
According to the Wikipedia entry you linked to, a probability measure is a real-valued function, but X here is apparently just a number? What's the significance of your parenthetical note here?
This seems relevant:
...Five: US tax law prohibits public charities from getting too much support from big donors.
Under US tax law, a 501(c)(3) public charity must maintain a certain percentage of "public support". As with most tax rules, this one is complicated. If, over a four-year period, any one individual donates more than 2% of the organization's total support, anything over 2% does not count as "public support". If a single donor supported a charity, its public support percentage would be only 2%. If two donors supported a charity,
That post made me write this post, but I'm not sure that I'm referring to the same thing. Basically I mean something like "people whose beliefs or actions are so unreasonable, even on things that they should have thought long and hard about, that they seem to belong to a different species from myself." Like Robin Hanson in this tweet or Elizer Yudkowsky when he thought he would singlehandedly solve all the philosophical problems associated with building a Friendly AI (looks like I can't avoid giving examples after all). I'm pretty sure these two belong in the top 0.1 percentile of all humans as far as being reasonable, hence the title.