All of avancil's Comments + Replies

avancil20

Most of your examples seem more like "prerequisites" or basic skills that you build on. But scaffolding is a thing you build up to get something else done, then get rid of afterwards. So, a scaffolding skill would be a skill that enables you to learn how to do something you actually want to learn, but once you have learned how to do that thing, you no longer need the scaffolding skill.

Algebraic notation can still be useful to a chess player. Knowing basics like how to properly cut things is integral to cooking. Debugging is an essential skill for programmi... (read more)

1Huera
I have, indeed, misunderstood the concept—will retract my comment.
avancil10

There are conventions pertaining to the style a letter is written in. You might have a as an arbitrary element in set A, while a<sub>1</sub>, a<sub>2</sub>, etc., are a sequence of elements in A, while fancy-boldface A or fancy-script A (I don't know how to render those here) could represent the class of A-like sets. Also, a′ would be another case of a, or maybe the derivative of a, while a″ would be a third case, or maybe the second derivative. Sometimes superscripts or backscripts are used, when subscripts are not enough. Sometime... (read more)

avancil2615

There is a related problem where many browser-based productivity tools follow design principles from websites that are trying to get clicks. For example, I commonly run into DB interfaces at work that will return, say, 10 (or 25, or other small number) results per page. Now, it's good design to not let a query that returns, say, a million results, crash the browser. But, if a few hundred, or even a few thousand, results will display within milliseconds, why make me page dozens (or hundreds) of times? (I'm looking at you, GitHub commit history!)

Another exam... (read more)

6Sinclair Chen
I wonder if this has more to do with how taxing it is to display 100s or 1000s of elements under modern unoptimized web dev practices. In particular GitHub's commits page used to rerender the entire page on scroll. It is easy to program things arbitrarily badly and many an engineer would prefer just displaying fewer things rather than do it the better-quality but harder way.
4Adam Train
Precisely. And just to trace the profit motive explicitly: many of the features in question that get pop-ups in Office, for example, are just marginally useful enough in some niche that 0.5% of people who see the pop-up might try the feature. In the aggregate, there's some telemetry that says those 0.5% of people spend some very slightly higher proportion of time in the product, and some other analysis demonstrates that people who spend more time in the product are less likely to cancel. Everyone else dismisses the pop-up once, forgets about it, and it's annoying on the margin but means nothing. Follow that pattern for 20 years, releasing many such features, and we get overloaded / busy / confusing UIs by a thousand cuts, but also with a pretty big moat, created by supporting just that precise workflow that someone in an office job environment has been doing that precise way for a long time now and really doesn't want to adjust. Mainstream corporate culture doesn't mind this at all, in part because there are software products that have had functional monopolies for decades and many workplaces haven't had the opportunity to experience anything different, but also because the little precise fiddly features can make a product really sticky, at the expense of the user experience for everyone else. (Also, to your GitHub commit history example—yes! And also, I can't even go to the address bar and punch in e.g. &page=100, because they do cursor-based pagination! My rage knows no bounds—and drives me to the CLI tool!)
5Taymon Beal
You don't think the GitHub thing is about reducing server load? That would be my guess.
avancil2-3

It seems to me this is an example of you and Kaj talking past each other. To you, B's perspective is "eminently reasonable" and needs no further explanation. To Kaj, B's perspective was a bit unusual, and to fully inhabit that perspective, Kaj wanted a bit more context to understand why B was holding that principle higher than other things (enjoying the social collaboration, the satisfaction of optimally solving a problem, etc.).

avancil133

Except there's more at play than just winning the election. If you're a voter in a swing state, the candidates are paying more attention to you, and making more promises catering to you. The parties are picking candidates they think will appeal to you. Even if your odds of winning stay the same, the prize for winning gets bigger.

It was exiting a few elections ago when Colorado was in play by both parties. We even got to host the Democratic convention in Denver. Now, they just ignore us.

avancil51

One thing you touched on, but didn't delve into, is that the various "pay" components will having varying marginal utility at different levels.

For example, if you're literally starving, "coolness" won't matter much, you need enough money to buy food! But if you have enough money, you start caring about other things.

Perhaps having some social interaction is important, and you would sacrifice other things to have at least some of that in your job. But, beyond a certain point, the value diminishes, and would likely go negative, as the constant socializing get... (read more)

2jlemien
Yup! One of the best things a manager can do is to know their people, which allows them to tailor their communication, motivating words, and all other behaviors in a way that will be most effective for the target recipient. It is a beautiful thing to see in action, and it is a great aspiration to have in professional life.
avancil10

The OCD in me objects to the colors not being in chromatic order. On the other hand, if you wanted to maximize visual contrast between adjacent colors, then a sensible order would be black, red, green, purple, orange, blue.

2Johannes C. Mayer
The idea of having a consistent arrangement is that you don't need to look at your pens to know which one to pull. The ordering is simply such that if somebody copies this idea, then I can visit their house and use their magazine, without looking, in case I forgot mine. Probably low probability.
avancil169

As a former teacher, I firmly believe that if we want to reform schools, we must reform the teaching profession and school management structures. At least, we should address the things that are most insane:

  • A school district is a big operation, with many having thousands of employees, and budgets running into the hundreds of millions of dollars. And it is usually run by literal amateurs. As in, the school board is a group of unpaid volunteers.
  • As tough as it is to be a teacher, consider what it's like to be a principal: You get the most odious parts of be
... (read more)
1ClareChiaraVincent
Absolutely, and all good points! But what kind of reforms would help fix these problems? You suggest that we could change the job descriptions of new and more senior teachers to give a better distribution of duties. But what could we do to fix the management problems you mention? 
2keltan
Related to your principals comment. I can’t speak too much about the situation. Though am close with a former principal of a mid sized rural town. A real tricky job, and they knew that taking it on. It happened to be a town that (if I understand correctly) our government was sending a lot of refugees to. This resulted in a school where a large minority couldn’t speak English. In top of that, it’s a rural school. Notorious for horrible shit. Anyway, this principal made a small slip up and publicly apologised in a video. It then went locally viral and the state wide news picked it up. This principle was dragged through the mud for half a year. They couldn’t go to the grocery store or walk down the street. The news just kept going. I live pretty far away from them, but people know I know them. I had people come up and give condolences because of how harsh the treatment had been in the media. I’m not sure how much this adds to the discussion. But I hope it helps to update someone’s model. A principle is a public figure with power over a tiny domain. They are sometimes attacked in the same way as a politician, but without the defences that politicians have.
avancil0-1

Ironic that "Maybe" seems to have one of the narrower ranges of probabilities...

avancil3631

The cell borders example is misleading. The readability issue is not the cell borders themselves, the issue is that the borders are heavier weight than the text, and there's no difference between the borders separating the row and column headers, and the borders separating the data rows and columns.

If your only choices for gridlines are "off" and "obnoxious", "off" seems like a good choice. And for small tables, no borders works well. But for larger tables, finer lines (maybe in a lighter color or shade) can really improve the readability.

7Nathan Helm-Burger
I second this. Also, consider using instead of lines (or in addition to) an alternating pattern of white and light grey for the background. I love subtle grey/white background alternations for guiding the eye straight across a bunch of columns.

In multiplayer games, one balancing factor is that other players can gang up on the person who is ahead. Depending on the game dynamic, this can even things out a lot. In some games, this even creates the dynamic where you don't want to look too strong, so that others don't focus their attention on you.

Playing games against my kids when they were young, rather than just slack off and let them win, it was more fun for me to figure out the best way to handicap myself: What algorithm for sub-optimal play would keep the game close? Solving that puzzle effectively became my victory condition, rather than the game's victory condition, and I was effectively competing against myself, a more balanced opponent.

The question of what IS happening versus what SHOULD happen with population growth are certainly two different things. My point is that arguments for growth ultimately need to address the questions of how big should we grow, and what happens when we reach that point. If our economy depends on continued growth, that's going to stop working at some point.

While the physical limits of the universe are a long ways off, there are other limits that we could hit much sooner. Underlying your pro-growth arguments, there is an assumption that collective intelligence ... (read more)

7Elisha Graus
While ever larger obviously can't work in the theoretical sense, I think the original post still stands for why the ideal population is larger than it is now. For the past 150 years, the prices of resources have been falling, and their availability rising. When this trend stops - there'll definitely be an argument for halting growth. But as things stand now, it seems clear that we're still below capacity.
avancil1517

The fundamental problem with these anti-Malthusian arguments is they ignore the fundamental reality that exponential growth is unsustainable. There are physical limits to the universe, whether you believe the earth can support 10 billion or 100 trillion, or if we can expand through the universe and achieve a billion billion times more than that, it won't take that long, with exponential growth, to get there. At a certain point, the entire mass of the universe has been converted to human flesh. Some point before that, we either stabilize, or collapse.

Maybe ... (read more)

6jasoncrawford
First, this seems to be arguing against strawman. No one is advocating literally infinite growth forever, which is obviously impossible. Second, the current reality is not exponential population growth. It is a decelerating population. The UN projections show world population likely leveling off around 10 or 11 billion people in in this century, and possibly even declining: Even if we were to get back on an exponential population growth curve, the limits seem to me to be many orders of magnitude away. I don't see why we would worry about them until we get much closer.
avancil1-2

Where I live, I don't see many people going 15 over. I see most people going within -3 to +9 of the speed limit. They're following the law -- maybe not strictly as written, but as socially understood. There are a few people breaking the law -- and they get ticketed, etc. There are places where the speed limit is unreasonably low, and gets ignored (e.g. speed limit drops from 75 to 55 for construction zone, but no construction activity is visible), but in general, people around here follow the speed limit -- as socially understood.

The social definition is t... (read more)

Yes, when it comes to ordinary driving situations, there's only so good you can get, if you can get from A to B without trouble, without annoying and/or scaring your passengers or other people on the road, it's hard to do noticeably better. It's hard to get too much above the median; the 80th percentile driver won't seem that different from the 50th percentile driver. But, you can be really bad and drag the average down. Thus, the average is below the median, ergo most people (most drivers, anyway) are above average drivers. (Even assuming we are using some identical, objective scale, which, as jefftk points out, is not going to be the case.)

Answer by avancil2-1

At the beginning of the year, I had never heard of ChatGPT, and thought AI would continue to progress slowly, in a non-disruptive fashion. At this point, I believe 2023 will be at least as significant as 2007 (iPhone) in terms of marking the beginning of a technological transformation.

Just be careful your secure grip doesn't inadvertently cause the child an arm injury. "Nursemaid's elbow" and certain types of radial fractures can result from a hard yank on a child's arm.

4jefftk
I agree you shouldn't make a habit of transporting children by their arms. To take the opening story as an example, however, even if Lily had ended up with an arm injury I still would have seen it as well worth it.

Unendorsed while acting/Endorsed reflectively: This is not so strange a failure mode as you are indicating. You take some action, which at the time you know isn't right (execution failure). Later, you come up with some post-hoc justification for your actions. This is another failure mode to be aware of, affecting the postmortem.

Postmortems can have their own failure modes. We might disagree about the facts of what happened. We might have different perspectives on the context in which things happened. We might struggle to be honest with ourselves about our ... (read more)

Internally, though, people are not monolithic. In some ways, they are more like a mob. Even debating with one person, you can run into the same type of difficulty.

2Screwtape
Yeah, I do think the original Motte and Bailey can exist. If you're sitting across a table from one person and they seem to equivocate between two positions, this post is not really addressing that problem. The art of Internal Family Systems meets Double Crux is left as an exercise for another day I guess.

Upvoted. While I would hate to see this forum become another battleground for culture wars, I also don't want to see people avoiding topics because they touch on culture war stuff. Using Rationalist tools to deconstruct the dynamics of these battles (without fighting the battle) seems like a useful thing.

While I don't necessarily agree with the post, and I can see where it might, unfortunately, trigger some negative responses from some, I found parts illuminating, and it got me thinking about some useful reframing tools. All too often, people in the culture wars talk past each other because they are using the same words to point to different things.

1ymeskhout
I appreciate the sentiment in wanting to avoid culture war battlegrounds. I'm definitely open to criticism and feedback, so if you have anything specific about my post that rubbed you the wrong way I would really appreciate it if you could point it out.

It's hard to get good data, yes, particularly in a politically charged environment. But, I would have liked to have seen some evidence that for a given mitigation, our leaders tried to get a best estimate (even if it is not a great estimate) that it will prevent X COVID deaths, at a cost of Y (dollars, QALYs, whatever), and had done some reasoning why utility(X) > cost(Y). We might disagree on the values of X and Y, and how to compare them, but at least we would have a starting point for discussion. Instead, we got either "Don't take away muh freedom!" ... (read more)

-1dr_s
I think the problem here is also forced choices, which were in themselves loaded on purpose. If I tell you the two choices are "let COVID spread unimpeded" or "lock down without any support mechanism so that the economy crashes so hard it kills more people than COVID would" (honestly I don't think we actually fared that bad in western countries though, pre-vaccine COVID really would have killed a fuckton of people if it got in full swing), then I'm already loading the choice. Many politicians did this because essentially they were so pissy about having to do something that ran counter to their ideological inclinations that they took a particular petty pleasure in doing it as badly as they could, just to drive home that it was bad. This is standard "we believe the State is bad, that is why we will get in charge of the State and then manage it like utter fuckwits to demonstrate that the State is bad" right wing libertarian-ish behaviour. Boris Johnson and the British Tories in particular are regularly culpable of this, and were so during the pandemic as well. A third, saner option would have been "close schools, make it legally mandated for every employer who can allow work from home to make their people work from home, implement these and those security measures for those who otherwise can't, close businesses like restaurants and cinemas temporarily, then tax (still temporarily!) the increased earnings of those citizens and companies who are less affected by these measures to pay for supporting those businesses and people that are more affected so that the former don't go bankrupt, and the latter don't starve". You know, an actual coordinated action that aims at both minimizing and spreading fairly the (inevitable) suffering that comes with being in a pandemic. Do that on and off while developing testing and tracing capacity as well as all sorts of mitigation measures, and until a vaccine is ready. Then try to phase out to a less emergency mode, more sustained regim

There have been multiple egregious examples of this fallacy with respect to pandemic policy. The complete lack of rational cost benefit analysis (across the political spectrum) for the various measures was truly disheartening.

But to give a less politically charged example: Locally, in response to drought conditions, some restaurants announced they would only bring glasses of water to the table, on request. Now, this might make some sense in terms of reducing labor, although the extra work of having to ask everyone, and possibly bring out additional glasses... (read more)

1dr_s
To be fair there also was an environment of high uncertainty in which making good CBA without data was simply impossible, and calling for extensive and unrealistic standards of proof was a common dithering technique from people who simply didn't want anything done on principle. We still lack good enough data on transmission properties to e.g. estimate properly the benefits of ventilation in reducing it, three years into this. I was honestly baffled that the first thing done in March 2020 wasn't to immediately estimate in multiple experiments how long the virus stayed in the air or on surfaces still viable, how much exposure caused infection, etc. We had like a couple of papers at best, and not very good ones, apparently because it was hard to do the experiments and they required a P4 lab or so. Meanwhile the same researchers would probably encounter the virus daily at the grocer.
avancil374

I remember as a kid, about 12, loaning my less-mathematically-astute younger brother $4, at 10% interest per day, compounded daily. I remember gloating about how much money he was going to owe me. I was going to be RICH, mwuahh hah hah!!

My Mom told that loan sharking was illegal, and my Dad told me that contracts with minors were not enforceable. My brother I think borrowed some money from one of his friends (on much more favorable terms), paid me back with one day's interest, and never borrowed money from me again.

4lc
I did this too to a schoolyard kid, except he repaid me the next day, so it was kind of deflating.

I'm not sure how I would use my round-bottom wok on an induction burner, but maybe there's something that would make it work? And how I would char the skin on a chili pepper?

The converter plate is an interesting idea.

Maybe my ideal stove has three induction burners and one gas. Maybe I would discover that I rarely used the gas burner, and decide all induction works fine, and that I could just use my camp stove or outdoor grill if I actually need a flame. A hybrid stove could be a useful approach to getting people to overcome their hesitancy in switching to... (read more)

1[anonymous]
I'm not sure how I would use my round-bottom wok on an induction burner You can't.  You have to buy special wok/induction setups: https://www.amazon.com/Induction-14-inch-tempered-precision-temperature/dp/B077GL6BJY/, or use your camp stove when you need a flame. Hybrid stoves don't make any practical sense.  If you think about it in terms of engineering a product, you have the worst of both worlds: high electrical requirements to support 3 induction burners, and a gas supply is required.  It makes installation for a consumer always expensive.  Also the product itself is more complex internally, and would cost more, and would sell few units which raises the cost further, and so on..

My ideal stove (which I don't think anyone makes, for various practical reasons) has three burners, one gas, one induction and one electric.

  • Induction because induction is interesting, efficient, clean, and works well with ferrous cookware
  • Gas because induction doesn't work with some cookware, and sometimes you need an actual flame
  • Electric because gas burners suck at low temperature operations -- they get hot spots -- and induction doesn't work with some cookware.

Three burners because that's the most I can effectively use at one time. But maybe having four burners (with a second induction or gas burner) would make sense.

2Huluk
There's induction converters – basically metal plates with a handle – which you can use on an induction stove to heat your incompatible cookware. So no need for an electric burner, better get more induction for the added flexibility and lower complexity of the stove.

This strategy works for something that happens once, but for something that could be a pattern (e.g. getting ripped off by contractors), allocating thought to it would be worthwhile -- but only if you are focused on learning from the experience, and avoiding this type of problem in the future, as opposed to just wallowing in the fact that you were wronged. (And that's also easier said than done.)

2Adam Zerner
I agree with that. I guess where I was coming from in my comment is, at risk of being uncharitable, that there isn't too much to learn from here and the post was largely a vent.